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DCENTRIES 1ST TAM MAY 3 6F F24300 16000 0 BUM 6 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP CLAIMING 16000-ALL PURSE $24300 (12:35) (6 )

🏟 Tampa Bay Downs 📅 2026-05-03 📏 6F Dirt Clm 16000n3l 💰 $24,300
📡 Fetch History

Field — 6 Runners

1
BONITA DIAMOND
0.3%
RPR 68
Form 1---1133--
Off 46d
lbs 121
ML 15-1
J ROJAS CARLOS EDUARDO
T VILLANUEVA SERGIO E
By KARAKONTIE Out of DIAMONDESQUE
🥇 0.3% 🥈 1.1% 🥉 5.0% Avg 5.1 ⚡ 5 longshot wins
2
GO GO STAR
0.0%
RPR 69
Form ----2---3-
Off 8d
lbs 121
ML 30-1
J JIMENEZ MANNY
T ASHMORE COLEEN M
By MOHAYMEN Out of KILCOOLE MISS
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.4% 🥉 1.9% Avg 5.5
3
SOUND IT OUT
8.7%
RPR 74
Form 2--32123--
Off 18d
lbs 121
ML 2-1
J MARIN SAMUEL
T BENNETT GERALD S
By CAJUN BREEZE Out of RASHETTE
🥇 8.7% 🥈 37.4% 🥉 72.6% Avg 2.9
4
MAMA DRAMA
10.2%
RPR 73
Form 3--133-3-3
Off 7d
lbs 111
ML 5-1
J FERNANDEZ MARVIN
T BENNETT GERALD S
By BIG DRAMA Out of ROMA'S DISTINCTION
🥇 10.2% 🥈 36.1% 🥉 65.4% Avg 3.0
5
VESPER CHICKS
65.8%
RPR 77
Form 21223--312
Off 16d
lbs 121
ML 8-5
J QUINONEZ ALONSO
T PADILLA TIM
By CAJUN BREEZE Out of FUN FOR A LADY
🥇 65.8% 🥈 87.4% 🥉 96.7% Avg 1.5
6
WICKED LEGACY
15.2%
RPR 70
Form 13----3-3-
Off 14d
lbs 121
ML 3-1
J GIL CIPRIANO
T O'CONNELL KATHLEEN
By WICKED STRIKE Out of SPEIGHTSTOWN GIRL
🥇 15.2% 🥈 37.7% 🥉 58.5% Avg 3.1

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 5 VESPER CHICKS SPEED LEADER 77.7 8-5 16d 3--312 65.8%
2 3 SOUND IT OUT 74.3 2-1 18d 2123-- 8.7%
3 4 MAMA DRAMA 73 5-1 7d 33-3-3 10.2%
4 6 WICKED LEGACY 70.7 3-1 14d --3-3- 15.2%
5 2 GO GO STAR 69.3 30-1 8d 2---3- 0.0%
6 1 BONITA DIAMOND 68.7 15-1 46d 1133-- 0.3%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

2,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-21 16:53:34
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 5 VESPER CHICKS
65.75%
87.35% 96.70% 1.51 1 5 86.8 #1 ≈ —
2 6 WICKED LEGACY
15.15%
37.70% 58.50% 3.10 1 6 75.3 #4 ≈ —
3 4 MAMA DRAMA
10.15%
36.10% 65.40% 2.98 1 6 76.2 #3 ≈ —
4 3 SOUND IT OUT
8.70%
37.35% 72.60% 2.87 1 6 76.3 #2 ≈ —
5 1 BONITA DIAMOND
0.25%
1.10% 4.95% 5.06 1 6 61.5 #6 ≈ ⚡ 5
6 2 GO GO STAR
0.00%
0.40% 1.85% 5.49 2 6 57.9 #5 ≈ —

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 5 VESPER CHICKS 8-5 38.5%
65.75%
87.35% 96.70% ✅ 1.71x —
2 6 WICKED LEGACY 3-1 25%
15.15%
37.70% 58.50% 0.61x —
3 4 MAMA DRAMA 5-1 16.7%
10.15%
36.10% 65.40% 0.61x —
4 3 SOUND IT OUT 2-1 33.3%
8.70%
37.35% 72.60% 0.26x —
5 1 BONITA DIAMOND LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 15-1 6.3%
0.25%
1.10% 4.95% 0.04x ⚡ 5
6 2 GO GO STAR LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.00%
0.40% 1.85% 0.00x —

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 6 horses, ~16.7% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
6 WICKED LEGACY 19.1% 15.2% -3.9%
4 MAMA DRAMA 19.0% 10.2% -8.9%
2 GO GO STAR 18.4% 0.0% -18.4%
5 VESPER CHICKS 17.1% 65.8% +48.7%
1 BONITA DIAMOND 16.7% 0.3% -16.5%
3 SOUND IT OUT 14.0% 8.7% -5.3%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 2,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 5 VESPER CHICKS 65.8% 8-5
  2. 6 WICKED LEGACY 15.2% 3-1
  3. 4 MAMA DRAMA 10.2% 5-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 5 VESPER CHICKS 87.4% 8-5
  2. 6 WICKED LEGACY 37.7% 3-1
  3. 3 SOUND IT OUT 37.4% 2-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 5 VESPER CHICKS 96.7% 8-5
  2. 3 SOUND IT OUT 72.6% 2-1
  3. 4 MAMA DRAMA 65.4% 5-1
📋 Exacta Box
5-6-4
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
5 VESPER CHICKS 6 WICKED LEGACY 4 MAMA DRAMA
🎲 Trifecta
5-6-4
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
5 → 6-4-3
Key VESPER CHICKS to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
5-6-4-3
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
5/6 / 5/6 / 4/3/1 / 4/3/1
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

🏆 Actual Results

#ProgHorse Finish Margin Odds Sim Predicted
1 6 WICKED LEGACY — — Sim #2 (15.2% win)
2 4 MAMA DRAMA — — Sim #3 (10.2% win)
3 5 VESPER CHICKS — — Sim #1 (65.8% win)
4 2 GO GO STAR — — Sim #6 (0.0% win)
5 3 SOUND IT OUT — — Sim #4 (8.7% win)
6 1 BONITA DIAMOND — — Sim #5 (0.3% win)

Official winner: WICKED LEGACY

✏️ Edit Results
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
6 WICKED LEGACY
4 MAMA DRAMA
5 VESPER CHICKS
2 GO GO STAR
3 SOUND IT OUT
1 BONITA DIAMOND