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DMENTRIES 1ST WOX MAY 3 6.5F G49200 0 BUN 6 1/2 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP MAIDEN OPTIONAL CLAIMING PURSE $49200 (01:20) (7 )

🏟 Woodbine 📅 2026-05-03 📏 6½F Dirt Moc 25000 💰 $49,200
📡 Fetch History

Field — 7 Runners

1
FOG D'ORO
3.8%
RPR 64
Form 2-2----
Off 148d
lbs 119
ML 5-2
J MORAN DAVID
T GITTENS DEVON
By FOG OF WAR Out of AWESOME D'ORO
🥇 3.8% 🥈 17.7% 🥉 43.4% Avg 3.8
2
BEE ME
64.1%
RPR 76
Form 3----2-2-2
Off 142d
lbs 124
ML 2-1
J AEBLY FRASER
T COLE KRISTA
By BEE JERSEY Out of TALE OF ICE
🥇 64.1% 🥈 88.3% 🥉 96.6% Avg 1.5
3
GUS'S DRUMBEET
1.0%
RPR 68
Form ---3
Off 142d
lbs 123
ML 8-1
J MARAGH ROMERO RAMSAY
T PALMER KERRON
By BRODY'S CAUSE Out of DANCE READY
🥇 1.0% 🥈 6.2% 🥉 19.7% Avg 4.6
4
SILENT MORT
16.7%
RPR 65
Form 3--
Off 161d
lbs 119
ML 6-1
J CAMPOS JOSE LUIS
T SQUIRES NATHAN
By SILENT NAME Out of CRIMSON INVASION
🥇 16.7% 🥈 55.3% 🥉 81.4% Avg 2.5
5
PRINCE ALMASTY
7.4%
RPR 68
Form --2--
Off 154d
lbs 118
ML 10-1
J BLACKETT KEMAIRE
T HOLDER TEDSTON
By ALMASTY Out of PRINCESS JEWEL
🥇 7.4% 🥈 18.6% 🥉 33.1% Avg 4.4 ⚡ 739 longshot wins
6
BETTERMUSTCOME
0.3%
RPR 54
Form ---
Off 15d
lbs 118
ML 20-1
J HOYTE JASON
T DESOUZA BANCROFT
By OLD FORESTER Out of LADY DISCOVERY
🥇 0.3% 🥈 1.4% 🥉 5.7% Avg 5.7 ⚡ 29 longshot wins
7
WAITINGFORAHOLIDAY
6.8%
RPR 62
Form ----
Off 168d
lbs 119
ML 7-2
J ADAMS AUSTIN
T DIXON PATRICK
By AMI'S HOLIDAY Out of AWFULLY SINFUL
🥇 6.8% 🥈 12.6% 🥉 20.0% Avg 5.5

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 2 BEE ME SPEED LEADER 76.3 2-1 142d -2-2-2 64.1%
2 5 PRINCE ALMASTY 68.7 10-1 154d --2-- 7.4%
3 3 GUS'S DRUMBEET 68 8-1 142d ---3 1.0%
4 4 SILENT MORT 65 6-1 161d 3-- 16.7%
5 1 FOG D'ORO 64 5-2 148d -2---- 3.8%
6 7 WAITINGFORAHOLIDAY 62 7-2 168d ---- 6.8%
7 6 BETTERMUSTCOME 54 20-1 15d --- 0.3%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-25 17:58:33
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 2 BEE ME
64.05%
88.28% 96.64% 1.52 1 7 74.8 #1 ≈ —
2 4 SILENT MORT
16.73%
55.30% 81.43% 2.54 1 7 68.7 #4 ≈ —
3 5 PRINCE ALMASTY
7.39%
18.61% 33.13% 4.39 1 7 59.8 #2 ≈ ⚡ 739
4 7 WAITINGFORAHOLIDAY
6.77%
12.55% 20.02% 5.45 1 7 51.0 #6 ≈ —
5 1 FOG D'ORO
3.76%
17.68% 43.44% 3.83 1 7 62.8 #5 ≈ —
6 3 GUS'S DRUMBEET
1.01%
6.15% 19.69% 4.59 1 7 59.4 #3 ▼ —
7 6 BETTERMUSTCOME
0.29%
1.43% 5.65% 5.67 1 7 53.7 #7 ≈ ⚡ 29

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 2 BEE ME 2-1 33.3%
64.05%
88.28% 96.64% ✅ 1.92x —
2 4 SILENT MORT 6-1 14.3%
16.73%
55.30% 81.43% 1.17x —
3 5 PRINCE ALMASTY LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 10-1 9.1%
7.39%
18.61% 33.13% 0.81x ⚡ 739
4 7 WAITINGFORAHOLIDAY 7-2 22.2%
6.77%
12.55% 20.02% 0.30x —
5 1 FOG D'ORO 5-2 28.6%
3.76%
17.68% 43.44% 0.13x —
6 3 GUS'S DRUMBEET 8-1 11.1%
1.01%
6.15% 19.69% 0.09x —
7 6 BETTERMUSTCOME LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
0.29%
1.43% 5.65% 0.06x ⚡ 29

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 7 horses, ~14.3% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
3 GUS'S DRUMBEET 16.6% 1.0% -15.6%
6 BETTERMUSTCOME 16.4% 0.3% -16.1%
5 PRINCE ALMASTY 15.7% 7.4% -8.3%
4 SILENT MORT 15.6% 16.7% +1.1%
7 WAITINGFORAHOLIDAY 13.7% 6.8% -6.9%
2 BEE ME 13.4% 64.1% +50.7%
1 FOG D'ORO 11.8% 3.8% -8.0%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 2 BEE ME 64.1% 2-1
  2. 4 SILENT MORT 16.7% 6-1
  3. 5 PRINCE ALMASTY 7.4% 10-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 2 BEE ME 88.3% 2-1
  2. 4 SILENT MORT 55.3% 6-1
  3. 5 PRINCE ALMASTY 18.6% 10-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 2 BEE ME 96.6% 2-1
  2. 4 SILENT MORT 81.4% 6-1
  3. 1 FOG D'ORO 43.4% 5-2
📋 Exacta Box
2-4-5
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
2 BEE ME 4 SILENT MORT 5 PRINCE ALMASTY
🎲 Trifecta
2-4-5
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
2 → 4-5-7
Key BEE ME to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
2-4-5-7
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
2/4 / 2/4 / 5/7/1 / 5/7/1
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

🏆 Actual Results

#ProgHorse Finish Margin Odds Sim Predicted
1 3 GUS'S DRUMBEET — — Sim #6 (1.0% win)
2 1 FOG D'ORO — — Sim #5 (3.8% win)
3 2 BEE ME — — Sim #1 (64.1% win)
4 5 PRINCE ALMASTY — — Sim #3 (7.4% win)
5 6 BETTERMUSTCOME — — Sim #7 (0.3% win)
6 7 WAITINGFORAHOLIDAY — — Sim #4 (6.8% win)
7 4 SILENT MORT — — Sim #2 (16.7% win)

Official winner: GUS'S DRUMBEET

✏️ Edit Results
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
3 GUS'S DRUMBEET
1 FOG D'ORO
2 BEE ME
5 PRINCE ALMASTY
6 BETTERMUSTCOME
7 WAITINGFORAHOLIDAY
4 SILENT MORT