DSENTRIES 3RD WOX MAY 3 7F F115100 0 BUM 7 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT PURSE $115100 (02:24) (6 )
Field — 6 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 TAP MY DESIRE SPEED LEADER | 79.3 | 9-2 | 190d | 233--- | 4.0% |
| 2 | 1 LAKE LOUISE | 76.5 | 9-5 | 31d | -2 | 72.0% |
| 3 | 5 DI CAPRI | 72.3 | 3-1 | 70d | 31-- | 6.0% |
| 4 | 2 GOLDEN HARVEST | 71.3 | 7-2 | 155d | --- | 0.6% |
| 5 | 4 DAKOTAH BLUE | 70 | 8-1 | 281d | - | 14.1% |
| 6 | 6 LOTTA GEMS | 68 | 10-1 | 141d | - | 3.4% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 LAKE LOUISE | 94.05% | 98.62% | 1.36 | 1 | 6 | 81.2 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 4 DAKOTAH BLUE | 28.96% | 40.91% | 3.85 | 1 | 6 | 64.7 | #5 ▲ | — | |
| 3 | 5 DI CAPRI | 36.68% | 69.88% | 2.99 | 1 | 6 | 70.5 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 3 TAP MY DESIRE | 26.04% | 56.64% | 3.34 | 1 | 6 | 68.6 | #1 ▼ | — | |
| 5 | 6 LOTTA GEMS | 9.15% | 15.03% | 5.08 | 1 | 6 | 52.9 | #6 ≈ | ⚡ 337 | |
| 6 | 2 GOLDEN HARVEST | 5.12% | 18.92% | 4.39 | 1 | 6 | 62.9 | #4 ≈ | — |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 LAKE LOUISE | 9-5 | 35.7% | 94.05% | 98.62% | 🔥 2.02x | — | |
| 2 | 4 DAKOTAH BLUE | 8-1 | 11.1% | 28.96% | 40.91% | 1.27x | — | |
| 3 | 6 LOTTA GEMS LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 10-1 | 9.1% | 9.15% | 15.03% | 0.37x | ⚡ 337 | |
| 4 | 5 DI CAPRI | 3-1 | 25% | 36.68% | 69.88% | 0.24x | — | |
| 5 | 3 TAP MY DESIRE | 9-2 | 18.2% | 26.04% | 56.64% | 0.22x | — | |
| 6 | 2 GOLDEN HARVEST | 7-2 | 22.2% | 5.12% | 18.92% | 0.03x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | DI CAPRI | 19.2% | 6.0% | -13.2% | |
| 1 | LAKE LOUISE | 19.0% | 72.0% | +53.0% | |
| 3 | TAP MY DESIRE | 17.4% | 4.0% | -13.4% | |
| 6 | LOTTA GEMS | 15.3% | 3.4% | -11.9% | |
| 2 | GOLDEN HARVEST | 14.7% | 0.6% | -14.1% | |
| 4 | DAKOTAH BLUE | 14.5% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 1 LAKE LOUISE 72.0% 9-5
- 4 DAKOTAH BLUE 14.1% 8-1
- 5 DI CAPRI 6.0% 3-1
- 1 LAKE LOUISE 94.1% 9-5
- 5 DI CAPRI 36.7% 3-1
- 4 DAKOTAH BLUE 29.0% 8-1
- 1 LAKE LOUISE 98.6% 9-5
- 5 DI CAPRI 69.9% 3-1
- 3 TAP MY DESIRE 56.6% 9-2
🏆 Actual Results
| # | Prog | Horse | Finish | Margin | Odds | Sim Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | DAKOTAH BLUE | — | — | Sim #2 (14.1% win) | |
| 2 | 1 | LAKE LOUISE | — | — | Sim #1 (72.0% win) | |
| 3 | 3 | TAP MY DESIRE | — | — | Sim #4 (4.0% win) | |
| 4 | 6 | LOTTA GEMS | — | — | Sim #5 (3.4% win) | |
| 5 | 2 | GOLDEN HARVEST | — | — | Sim #6 (0.6% win) | |
| 6 | 5 | DI CAPRI | — | — | Sim #3 (6.0% win) |
Official winner: DAKOTAH BLUE