DMENTRIES 4TH WOX MAY 3 7F H65700 0 BON 7 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS MAIDEN OPTIONAL CLAIMING PURSE $65700 (02:55) (8 )
Field — 8 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 UP N THE ANTE SPEED LEADER | 76 | 5-2 | 15d | 3 | 66.3% |
| 2 | 1 AUNTIE'S BAMBINO | 72 | 10-1 | 15d | ------ | 10.3% |
| 3 | 7 WELL LIT | 71.5 | 3-1 | 175d | 3- | 2.7% |
| 4 | 4 BONGINO WARRIOR | 69 | 7-2 | 154d | 32- | 13.2% |
| 5 | 5 B THE KING | 60.3 | 9-2 | 175d | --2 | 2.8% |
| 6 | 3 UR HEART | 57 | 20-1 | 38d | -- | 0.2% |
| 7 | 2 MASTERFUL MOMENT | 56 | 12-1 | 210d | - | 2.0% |
| 8 | 8 METRO KING | — First starter | 12-1 | 161d | - | 2.6% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 UP N THE ANTE | 79.50% | 86.65% | 1.83 | 1 | 8 | 84.4 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 4 BONGINO WARRIOR | 39.37% | 58.60% | 3.33 | 1 | 8 | 70.0 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 1 AUNTIE'S BAMBINO | 41.35% | 68.58% | 2.99 | 1 | 8 | 71.2 | #2 ≈ | ⚡ 1025 | |
| 4 | 5 B THE KING | 11.27% | 23.86% | 4.83 | 1 | 8 | 62.3 | #5 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 7 WELL LIT | 13.45% | 34.25% | 4.07 | 1 | 8 | 66.1 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 6 | 8 METRO KING | 7.78% | 13.90% | 6.10 | 1 | 8 | 53.0 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 262 | |
| 7 | 2 MASTERFUL MOMENT | 5.86% | 10.27% | 6.45 | 1 | 8 | 50.0 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 197 | |
| 8 | 3 UR HEART | 1.42% | 3.89% | 6.41 | 1 | 8 | 53.2 | #6 ≈ | ⚡ 24 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 UP N THE ANTE | 5-2 | 28.6% | 79.50% | 86.65% | 🔥 2.32x | — | |
| 2 | 1 AUNTIE'S BAMBINO LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 10-1 | 9.1% | 41.35% | 68.58% | 1.13x | ⚡ 1025 | |
| 3 | 4 BONGINO WARRIOR | 7-2 | 22.2% | 39.37% | 58.60% | 0.59x | — | |
| 4 | 8 METRO KING LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 7.78% | 13.90% | 0.34x | ⚡ 262 | |
| 5 | 2 MASTERFUL MOMENT LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 5.86% | 10.27% | 0.26x | ⚡ 197 | |
| 6 | 5 B THE KING | 9-2 | 18.2% | 11.27% | 23.86% | 0.15x | — | |
| 7 | 7 WELL LIT | 3-1 | 25% | 13.45% | 34.25% | 0.11x | — | |
| 8 | 3 UR HEART LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 1.42% | 3.89% | 0.05x | ⚡ 24 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BONGINO WARRIOR | 14.9% | 13.2% | -1.7% | |
| 5 | B THE KING | 14.8% | 2.8% | -12.0% | |
| 3 | UR HEART | 14.3% | 0.2% | -14.1% | |
| 8 | METRO KING | 13.4% | 2.6% | -10.8% | |
| 6 | UP N THE ANTE | 13.3% | 66.3% | +53.0% | |
| 1 | AUNTIE'S BAMBINO | 12.5% | 10.3% | -2.3% | |
| 7 | WELL LIT | 11.5% | 2.7% | -8.8% | |
| 2 | MASTERFUL MOMENT | 10.8% | 2.0% | -8.8% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 6 UP N THE ANTE 66.3% 5-2
- 4 BONGINO WARRIOR 13.2% 7-2
- 1 AUNTIE'S BAMBINO 10.3% 10-1
- 6 UP N THE ANTE 79.5% 5-2
- 1 AUNTIE'S BAMBINO 41.4% 10-1
- 4 BONGINO WARRIOR 39.4% 7-2
- 6 UP N THE ANTE 86.7% 5-2
- 1 AUNTIE'S BAMBINO 68.6% 10-1
- 4 BONGINO WARRIOR 58.6% 7-2
🏆 Actual Results
| # | Prog | Horse | Finish | Margin | Odds | Sim Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MASTERFUL MOMENT | — | — | Sim #7 (2.0% win) | |
| 2 | 1 | AUNTIE'S BAMBINO | — | — | Sim #3 (10.3% win) | |
| 3 | 6 | UP N THE ANTE | — | — | Sim #1 (66.3% win) | |
| 4 | 3 | UR HEART | — | — | Sim #8 (0.2% win) | |
| 5 | 4 | BONGINO WARRIOR | — | — | Sim #2 (13.2% win) | |
| 6 | 5 | B THE KING | — | — | Sim #4 (2.8% win) | |
| 7 | 8 | METRO KING | — | — | Sim #6 (2.6% win) | |
| 8 | 7 | WELL LIT | — | — | Sim #5 (2.7% win) |
Official winner: MASTERFUL MOMENT