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DAENTRIES 5TH WOX MAY 3 7F G114600 0 BUM 7 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING PURSE $114600 (03:26) (7 )

🏟 Woodbine 📅 2026-05-03 📏 7F Dirt OClm 50000b 💰 $114,600
📡 Fetch History

Field — 7 Runners

1
YOU BE THE JUDGE
0.2%
RPR 81
Form -33-232---
Off 44d
lbs 122
ML 15-1
J FORDE XAREL
T OWENS STEVE
By JIMMY CREED Out of EXECUTIVE AFFAIR
🥇 0.2% 🥈 2.8% 🥉 12.1% Avg 5.2 ⚡ 20 longshot wins
2
ARAMI'S FACTOR
10.1%
RPR 78
Form -3-3--1-
Off 42d
lbs 122
ML 10-1
J AEBLY FRASER
T CARROLL JOSIE
By THE FACTOR Out of ARAMI'S FLATTER
🥇 10.1% 🥈 26.4% 🥉 42.9% Avg 4.2 ⚡ 1013 longshot wins
3
BOSSY CANDY
50.2%
RPR 81
Form -212
Off 36d
lbs 118
ML 2-1
J HERNANDEZ RAFAEL MANUEL
T CASSE MARK
By CANDY RIDE Out of CASEY'S DREAMIN'
🥇 50.2% 🥈 86.2% 🥉 97.6% Avg 1.7
4
Z TRAIN
26.1%
RPR 84
Form 1-23-11--2
Off 46d
lbs 122
ML 3-1
J MORAN PIETRO
T VASSILIEVA KATERINA
By CHURCHILL Out of MNEMONIC ALEXANDER
🥇 26.1% 🥈 40.9% 🥉 52.5% Avg 3.8
5
SMUDGE
0.2%
RPR 81
Form ---22--3
Off 267d
lbs 122
ML 6-1
J WILSON EMMA JAYNE
T CASSE MARK
By QUALITY ROAD Out of BOURBONESQUE
🥇 0.2% 🥈 4.1% 🥉 15.0% Avg 5.0
6
PROPHETIC DEBBY
11.9%
RPR 78
Form -
Off 38d
lbs 118
ML 8-1
J MUNGER RYAN
T MINSHALL BARBARA J
By AWTAAD Out of KHAMEELA
🥇 11.9% 🥈 26.8% 🥉 41.7% Avg 4.3
7
KATIE'S GRACE
1.3%
RPR 78
Form --1
Off 155d
lbs 118
ML 5-2
J ADAMS AUSTIN
T DAY-PHILLIPS CATHERI
By INDEPENDENCE HALL Out of BELLA JOY
🥇 1.3% 🥈 12.9% 🥉 38.3% Avg 4.0

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 4 Z TRAIN SPEED LEADER 84.3 3-1 46d -11--2 26.1%
2 1 YOU BE THE JUDGE 81.3 15-1 44d 232--- 0.2%
3 3 BOSSY CANDY 81.3 2-1 36d -212 50.2%
4 5 SMUDGE 81.3 6-1 267d -22--3 0.2%
5 2 ARAMI'S FACTOR 78 10-1 42d -3--1- 10.1%
6 6 PROPHETIC DEBBY 78 8-1 38d - 11.9%
7 7 KATIE'S GRACE 78 5-2 155d --1 1.3%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-25 17:58:35
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 3 BOSSY CANDY
50.19%
86.16% 97.58% 1.67 1 6 94.3 #3 ≈ —
2 4 Z TRAIN
26.06%
40.90% 52.51% 3.75 1 7 83.0 #1 ≈ —
3 6 PROPHETIC DEBBY
11.89%
26.78% 41.72% 4.25 1 7 78.7 #6 ▲ —
4 2 ARAMI'S FACTOR
10.13%
26.42% 42.86% 4.15 1 7 79.4 #5 ≈ ⚡ 1013
5 7 KATIE'S GRACE
1.33%
12.87% 38.27% 3.99 1 7 80.0 #7 ≈ —
6 1 YOU BE THE JUDGE
0.20%
2.82% 12.10% 5.19 1 7 74.3 #2 ▼ ⚡ 20
7 5 SMUDGE
0.20%
4.05% 14.96% 5.00 1 7 75.3 #4 ▼ —

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 3 BOSSY CANDY 2-1 33.3%
50.19%
86.16% 97.58% ✅ 1.51x —
2 2 ARAMI'S FACTOR LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 10-1 9.1%
10.13%
26.42% 42.86% 1.11x ⚡ 1013
3 6 PROPHETIC DEBBY 8-1 11.1%
11.89%
26.78% 41.72% 1.07x —
4 4 Z TRAIN 3-1 25%
26.06%
40.90% 52.51% 1.04x —
5 7 KATIE'S GRACE 5-2 28.6%
1.33%
12.87% 38.27% 0.05x —
6 1 YOU BE THE JUDGE LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.20%
2.82% 12.10% 0.03x ⚡ 20
7 5 SMUDGE 6-1 14.3%
0.20%
4.05% 14.96% 0.01x —

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 7 horses, ~14.3% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
1 YOU BE THE JUDGE 16.5% 0.2% -16.3%
3 BOSSY CANDY 16.0% 50.2% +34.2%
6 PROPHETIC DEBBY 12.6% 11.9% -0.7%
7 KATIE'S GRACE 12.5% 1.3% -11.2%
5 SMUDGE 12.2% 0.2% -12.0%
2 ARAMI'S FACTOR 11.7% 10.1% -1.6%
4 Z TRAIN 11.4% 26.1% +14.7%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 3 BOSSY CANDY 50.2% 2-1
  2. 4 Z TRAIN 26.1% 3-1
  3. 6 PROPHETIC DEBBY 11.9% 8-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 3 BOSSY CANDY 86.2% 2-1
  2. 4 Z TRAIN 40.9% 3-1
  3. 6 PROPHETIC DEBBY 26.8% 8-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 3 BOSSY CANDY 97.6% 2-1
  2. 4 Z TRAIN 52.5% 3-1
  3. 2 ARAMI'S FACTOR 42.9% 10-1
📋 Exacta Box
3-4-6
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
3 BOSSY CANDY 4 Z TRAIN 6 PROPHETIC DEBBY
🎲 Trifecta
3-4-6
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
3 → 4-6-2
Key BOSSY CANDY to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
3-4-6-2
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
3/4 / 3/4 / 6/2/7 / 6/2/7
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

🏆 Actual Results

#ProgHorse Finish Margin Odds Sim Predicted
1 2 ARAMI'S FACTOR — — Sim #4 (10.1% win)
2 3 BOSSY CANDY — — Sim #1 (50.2% win)
3 6 PROPHETIC DEBBY — — Sim #3 (11.9% win)
4 4 Z TRAIN — — Sim #2 (26.1% win)
5 7 KATIE'S GRACE — — Sim #5 (1.3% win)
6 1 YOU BE THE JUDGE — — Sim #6 (0.2% win)
7 5 SMUDGE — — Sim #7 (0.2% win)

Official winner: ARAMI'S FACTOR

✏️ Edit Results
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
2 ARAMI'S FACTOR
3 BOSSY CANDY
6 PROPHETIC DEBBY
4 Z TRAIN
7 KATIE'S GRACE
1 YOU BE THE JUDGE
5 SMUDGE