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DSENTRIES 6TH WOX MAY 3 7F H115100 0 BUN 7 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT PURSE $115100 (03:57) (8 )

🏟 Woodbine 📅 2026-05-03 📏 7F Dirt Md Sp Wt 💰 $115,100
📡 Fetch History

Field — 8 Runners

1
WILLFUL WARRIOR
34.1%
lbs 119
ML 7-2
J MORAN PIETRO
T CASSE MARK
By WAR OF WILL Out of SUTIL
🥇 34.1% 🥈 47.4% 🥉 55.1% Avg 3.9
2
PRIME EDGE
48.2%
RPR 80
Form 132-
Off 46d
lbs 124
ML 3-1
J HERNANDEZ RAFAEL MANUEL
T CARROLL JOSIE
By CURLIN Out of LEADING EDGE
🥇 48.2% 🥈 77.8% 🥉 88.2% Avg 2.0
3
LOVER BOY MO
1.1%
RPR 80
Form 2213-2--
Off 143d
lbs 124
ML 6-1
J BADRIE PRAYVEN
T LADAUCEUR HAROLD
By GOOD SAMARITAN Out of MODISTE
🥇 1.1% 🥈 5.3% 🥉 12.8% Avg 5.9
4
HELLO STRANGER
0.7%
RPR 81
Form 22---
Off 171d
lbs 124
ML 5-2
J MARAGH ROMERO RAMSAY
T COLE KRISTA
By INSTILLED REGARD Out of YOU DON'T KNOW ME
🥇 0.7% 🥈 4.3% 🥉 13.0% Avg 5.6
5
JOLTED
10.9%
RPR 77
Form 232---
Off 36d
lbs 119
ML 8-1
J MUNGER RYAN
T MINSHALL BARBARA J
By INSTAGRAND Out of COFACHIQUI
🥇 10.9% 🥈 40.4% 🥉 68.9% Avg 3.1
6
BELIEVEIN
1.9%
RPR 80
Form 1-
Off 87d
lbs 119
ML 10-1
J AEBLY FRASER
T CASSE MARK
By BLAME Out of TIPTOE
🥇 1.9% 🥈 10.0% 🥉 26.0% Avg 4.7 ⚡ 193 longshot wins
7
KAMASI
2.5%
RPR 77
Form --1-322
Off 143d
lbs 124
ML 15-1
J CAMPOS JOSE LUIS
T ROSS JOHN A
By BOLT D'ORO Out of HIP HOP N JAZZ
🥇 2.5% 🥈 11.0% 🥉 24.3% Avg 5.1 ⚡ 246 longshot wins
8
BIG SCREEN BOSS
0.6%
RPR 80
Form 2222--222
Off 141d
lbs 119
ML 12-1
J BLACKETT KEMAIRE
T HOLDER TEDSTON
By BIG SCREEN Out of EXECUTIVE AFFAIR
🥇 0.6% 🥈 3.8% 🥉 11.8% Avg 5.7 ⚡ 60 longshot wins

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 4 HELLO STRANGER SPEED LEADER 81 5-2 171d 22--- 0.7%
2 3 LOVER BOY MO 80.7 6-1 143d 13-2-- 1.1%
3 2 PRIME EDGE 80 3-1 46d 132- 48.2%
4 6 BELIEVEIN 80 10-1 87d 1- 1.9%
5 8 BIG SCREEN BOSS 80 12-1 141d 2--222 0.6%
6 7 KAMASI 77.7 15-1 143d -1-322 2.5%
7 5 JOLTED 77 8-1 36d 232--- 10.9%
8 1 WILLFUL WARRIOR — First starter 7-2 — — 34.1%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-25 17:58:36
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 2 PRIME EDGE
48.24%
77.81% 88.16% 1.98 1 8 92.0 #3 ≈ —
2 1 WILLFUL WARRIOR
34.08%
47.35% 55.11% 3.91 1 8 84.8 #8 ▲ —
3 5 JOLTED
10.88%
40.43% 68.92% 3.05 1 8 84.7 #7 ▲ —
4 7 KAMASI
2.46%
10.95% 24.27% 5.15 1 8 77.0 #6 ≈ ⚡ 246
5 6 BELIEVEIN
1.93%
10.04% 26.01% 4.74 1 8 78.4 #4 ≈ ⚡ 193
6 3 LOVER BOY MO
1.08%
5.29% 12.78% 5.91 1 8 74.1 #2 ▼ —
7 4 HELLO STRANGER
0.73%
4.34% 13.00% 5.56 1 8 75.8 #1 ▼ —
8 8 BIG SCREEN BOSS
0.60%
3.79% 11.75% 5.70 1 8 75.1 #5 ▼ ⚡ 60

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 2 PRIME EDGE 3-1 25%
48.24%
77.81% 88.16% ✅ 1.93x —
2 1 WILLFUL WARRIOR 7-2 22.2%
34.08%
47.35% 55.11% ✅ 1.53x —
3 5 JOLTED 8-1 11.1%
10.88%
40.43% 68.92% 0.98x —
4 7 KAMASI LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 15-1 6.3%
2.46%
10.95% 24.27% 0.39x ⚡ 246
5 6 BELIEVEIN LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
1.93%
10.04% 26.01% 0.21x ⚡ 193
6 3 LOVER BOY MO 6-1 14.3%
1.08%
5.29% 12.78% 0.08x —
7 8 BIG SCREEN BOSS LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
0.60%
3.79% 11.75% 0.08x ⚡ 60
8 4 HELLO STRANGER 5-2 28.6%
0.73%
4.34% 13.00% 0.03x —

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 8 horses, ~12.5% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
6 BELIEVEIN 15.4% 1.9% -13.5%
5 JOLTED 15.3% 10.9% -4.4%
8 BIG SCREEN BOSS 15.1% 0.6% -14.5%
4 HELLO STRANGER 13.5% 0.7% -12.8%
7 KAMASI 12.5% 2.5% -10.0%
3 LOVER BOY MO 12.3% 1.1% -11.2%
1 WILLFUL WARRIOR 12.1% 34.1% +22.0%
2 PRIME EDGE 10.2% 48.2% +38.0%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 2 PRIME EDGE 48.2% 3-1
  2. 1 WILLFUL WARRIOR 34.1% 7-2
  3. 5 JOLTED 10.9% 8-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 2 PRIME EDGE 77.8% 3-1
  2. 1 WILLFUL WARRIOR 47.4% 7-2
  3. 5 JOLTED 40.4% 8-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 2 PRIME EDGE 88.2% 3-1
  2. 5 JOLTED 68.9% 8-1
  3. 1 WILLFUL WARRIOR 55.1% 7-2
📋 Exacta Box
2-1-5
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
2 PRIME EDGE 1 WILLFUL WARRIOR 5 JOLTED
🎲 Trifecta
2-1-5
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
2 → 1-5-7
Key PRIME EDGE to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
2-1-5-7
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
2/1 / 2/1 / 5/7/6 / 5/7/6
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

🏆 Actual Results

#ProgHorse Finish Margin Odds Sim Predicted
1 6 BELIEVEIN — — Sim #5 (1.9% win)
2 3 LOVER BOY MO — — Sim #6 (1.1% win)
3 8 BIG SCREEN BOSS — — Sim #8 (0.6% win)
4 7 KAMASI — — Sim #4 (2.5% win)
5 2 PRIME EDGE — — Sim #1 (48.2% win)
6 1 WILLFUL WARRIOR — — Sim #2 (34.1% win)
7 4 HELLO STRANGER — — Sim #7 (0.7% win)
8 5 JOLTED — — Sim #3 (10.9% win)

Official winner: BELIEVEIN

✏️ Edit Results
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
6 BELIEVEIN
3 LOVER BOY MO
8 BIG SCREEN BOSS
7 KAMASI
2 PRIME EDGE
1 WILLFUL WARRIOR
4 HELLO STRANGER
5 JOLTED