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DNENTRIES 8TH WOX MAY 3 5.5F G100000 0 CUN 5 1/2 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 4 YEAR OLDS AND UP NONGRADED STAKE PURSE $100000 (04:59) (7 )

🏟 Woodbine 📅 2026-05-03 📏 5½F Dirt ThrnclffB100k 💰 $100,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 7 Runners

1
DREAMING OF KONA
10.7%
RPR 89
Form -2--2311--
Off 36d
lbs 120
ML 10-1
J BADRIE PRAYVEN
T LADAUCEUR HAROLD
By FAST ANNA Out of PLIANT
🥇 10.7% 🥈 29.6% 🥉 53.2% Avg 3.3 ⚡ 1066 longshot wins
2
ROI SOLEIL
19.9%
RPR 91
Form 11-----13-
Off 155d
lbs 120
ML 6-1
J FORDE XAREL
T HALL PHILIP
By MORE THAN READY Out of EDEN'S MOON
🥇 19.9% 🥈 45.3% 🥉 68.1% Avg 2.8
3
G T FIVE HUNDRED
22.2%
RPR 91
Form -1113-2-23
Off 57d
lbs 122
ML 2-1
J HERNANDEZ RAFAEL MANUEL
T DESRUISSEAUX DALE A
By ASTERN Out of COCOANUT ROW
🥇 22.2% 🥈 38.6% 🥉 54.3% Avg 3.3
4
SCORCHING
9.9%
RPR 88
Form --11212
Off 236d
lbs 120
ML 8-1
J WILSON EMMA JAYNE
T CHARALAMBOUS JOHN
By MO TOWN Out of SAMSAL
🥇 9.9% 🥈 24.3% 🥉 42.3% Avg 3.7
5
POULIN IN O T
36.5%
RPR 91
Form 121-1-3-33
Off 42d
lbs 120
ML 5-2
J MORAN PIETRO
T OWENS STEVE
By RELOAD Out of TOWN DANCE
🥇 36.5% 🥈 59.8% 🥉 76.0% Avg 2.4
6
GO KART MOZART SCRATCHED
RPR 89
Form 33113111-
Off 155d
lbs 124
ML 4-1
J VIVES SOFIA
T TILLER ROBERT P
By SOUPER SPEEDY Out of STORMY ADIEU
7
DARK SCREEN
0.8%
RPR 84
Form 21--12--1-
Off 163d
lbs 122
ML 15-1
J CRAWFORD J
T CHUBB BEVERLEY
By BIG SCREEN Out of LADY ELENA
🥇 0.8% 🥈 2.4% 🥉 6.1% Avg 5.5 ⚡ 79 longshot wins

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 5 POULIN IN O T SPEED LEADER 91.7 5-2 42d 1-3-33 36.5%
2 2 ROI SOLEIL 91 6-1 155d ---13- 19.9%
3 3 G T FIVE HUNDRED 91 2-1 57d 3-2-23 22.2%
4 1 DREAMING OF KONA 89 10-1 36d 2311-- 10.7%
5 4 SCORCHING 88.3 8-1 236d -11212 9.9%
6 7 DARK SCREEN 84 15-1 163d 12--1- 0.8%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-25 17:58:34
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 5 POULIN IN O T
36.52%
59.83% 76.00% 2.42 1 6 98.2 #1 ≈ —
2 3 G T FIVE HUNDRED
22.23%
38.63% 54.33% 3.26 1 6 94.1 #3 ≈ —
3 2 ROI SOLEIL
19.89%
45.30% 68.11% 2.83 1 6 95.7 #2 ≈ —
4 1 DREAMING OF KONA
10.66%
29.59% 53.16% 3.33 1 6 93.5 #4 ≈ ⚡ 1066
5 4 SCORCHING
9.91%
24.28% 42.26% 3.69 1 6 91.9 #5 ≈ —
6 7 DARK SCREEN
0.79%
2.37% 6.14% 5.48 1 6 81.5 #6 ≈ ⚡ 79

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 2 ROI SOLEIL 6-1 14.3%
19.89%
45.30% 68.11% 1.39x —
2 5 POULIN IN O T 5-2 28.6%
36.52%
59.83% 76.00% 1.28x —
3 1 DREAMING OF KONA LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 10-1 9.1%
10.66%
29.59% 53.16% 1.17x ⚡ 1066
4 4 SCORCHING 8-1 11.1%
9.91%
24.28% 42.26% 0.89x —
5 3 G T FIVE HUNDRED 2-1 33.3%
22.23%
38.63% 54.33% 0.67x —
6 7 DARK SCREEN LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.79%
2.37% 6.14% 0.13x ⚡ 79

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 6 horses, ~16.7% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
5 POULIN IN O T 18.6% 36.5% +17.9%
1 DREAMING OF KONA 17.9% 10.7% -7.2%
2 ROI SOLEIL 16.2% 19.9% +3.7%
7 DARK SCREEN 15.8% 0.8% -15.0%
4 SCORCHING 14.3% 9.9% -4.4%
3 G T FIVE HUNDRED 14.2% 22.2% +8.0%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 5 POULIN IN O T 36.5% 5-2
  2. 3 G T FIVE HUNDRED 22.2% 2-1
  3. 2 ROI SOLEIL 19.9% 6-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 5 POULIN IN O T 59.8% 5-2
  2. 2 ROI SOLEIL 45.3% 6-1
  3. 3 G T FIVE HUNDRED 38.6% 2-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 5 POULIN IN O T 76.0% 5-2
  2. 2 ROI SOLEIL 68.1% 6-1
  3. 3 G T FIVE HUNDRED 54.3% 2-1
📋 Exacta Box
5-3-2
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
5 POULIN IN O T 3 G T FIVE HUNDRED 2 ROI SOLEIL
🎲 Trifecta
5-3-2
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
5 → 3-2-1
Key POULIN IN O T to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
5-3-2-1
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
5/3 / 5/3 / 2/1/4 / 2/1/4
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

🏆 Actual Results

#ProgHorse Finish Margin Odds Sim Predicted
1 3 G T FIVE HUNDRED — — Sim #2 (22.2% win)
2 4 SCORCHING — — Sim #5 (9.9% win)
3 5 POULIN IN O T — — Sim #1 (36.5% win)
4 1 DREAMING OF KONA — — Sim #4 (10.7% win)
5 2 ROI SOLEIL — — Sim #3 (19.9% win)
6 7 DARK SCREEN — — Sim #6 (0.8% win)

Official winner: G T FIVE HUNDRED

✏️ Edit Results
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
3 G T FIVE HUNDRED
4 SCORCHING
5 POULIN IN O T
1 DREAMING OF KONA
2 ROI SOLEIL
7 DARK SCREEN
6 GO KART MOZART SCR Scratched