DSENTRIES 1ST CDX MAY 2 8.5F K120000 0 BUN 1 1/16 MILES DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT PURSE $120000 (11:00) (11)
Field — 11 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 WINSTON AVE SPEED LEADER | 90 | 9-2 | 28d | 32-2 | 10.5% |
| 2 | 11 POWERSHIFT | 90 | 3-1 | 56d | 31 | 46.0% |
| 3 | 8 BOURBON DREAM | 89 | 5-1 | 35d | 2 | 28.1% |
| 4 | 3 SILENT WAY | 87 | 4-1 | 30d | 13- | 1.5% |
| 5 | 6 CROMWELL | 85.3 | 6-1 | 56d | --3--3 | 0.4% |
| 6 | 2 STAKEHOLDER | 79.7 | 20-1 | 23d | -2-- | 1.3% |
| 7 | 1 BHATIA | 77.7 | 15-1 | 21d | -33-- | 2.2% |
| 8 | 4 INGLEBOROUGH | 77 | 20-1 | 38d | - | 2.6% |
| 9 | 5 GET THEM ROSES | 75.7 | 15-1 | 42d | --- | 0.0% |
| 10 | 7 TIME TO STRIKE | 64 | 20-1 | 41d | --- | 0.0% |
| 11 | 10 MIDNIGHT PLAYBOY | — First starter | 15-1 | — | — | 7.3% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 POWERSHIFT | 74.09% | 87.54% | 2.03 | 1 | 10 | 102.4 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 8 BOURBON DREAM | 45.83% | 57.06% | 3.79 | 1 | 11 | 95.7 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 9 WINSTON AVE | 37.00% | 65.37% | 3.15 | 1 | 10 | 95.3 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 10 MIDNIGHT PLAYBOY | 12.69% | 18.03% | 7.70 | 1 | 11 | 73.8 | #11 ▲ | ⚡ 725 | |
| 5 | 4 INGLEBOROUGH | 6.39% | 10.82% | 7.87 | 1 | 11 | 74.9 | #8 ▲ | ⚡ 263 | |
| 6 | 1 BHATIA | 8.64% | 19.47% | 5.61 | 1 | 11 | 86.3 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 223 | |
| 7 | 3 SILENT WAY | 7.72% | 21.77% | 4.90 | 1 | 11 | 88.6 | #4 ▼ | — | |
| 8 | 2 STAKEHOLDER | 5.38% | 12.91% | 6.22 | 1 | 11 | 84.0 | #6 ≈ | ⚡ 133 | |
| 9 | 6 CROMWELL | 1.98% | 6.15% | 6.39 | 1 | 11 | 83.7 | #5 ▼ | — | |
| 10 | 5 GET THEM ROSES | 0.17% | 0.57% | 8.22 | 1 | 11 | 76.8 | #9 ≈ | ⚡ 4 | |
| 11 | 7 TIME TO STRIKE | 0.11% | 0.31% | 10.11 | 1 | 11 | 62.0 | #10 ≈ | ⚡ 3 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 POWERSHIFT | 3-1 | 25% | 74.09% | 87.54% | ✅ 1.84x | — | |
| 2 | 8 BOURBON DREAM | 5-1 | 16.7% | 45.83% | 57.06% | ✅ 1.69x | — | |
| 3 | 10 MIDNIGHT PLAYBOY LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 15-1 | 6.3% | 12.69% | 18.03% | 1.16x | ⚡ 725 | |
| 4 | 9 WINSTON AVE | 9-2 | 18.2% | 37.00% | 65.37% | 0.58x | — | |
| 5 | 4 INGLEBOROUGH LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 6.39% | 10.82% | 0.55x | ⚡ 263 | |
| 6 | 1 BHATIA LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 8.64% | 19.47% | 0.36x | ⚡ 223 | |
| 7 | 2 STAKEHOLDER LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 5.38% | 12.91% | 0.28x | ⚡ 133 | |
| 8 | 3 SILENT WAY | 4-1 | 20% | 7.72% | 21.77% | 0.07x | — | |
| 9 | 6 CROMWELL | 6-1 | 14.3% | 1.98% | 6.15% | 0.03x | — | |
| 10 | 5 GET THEM ROSES LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 0.17% | 0.57% | 0.01x | ⚡ 4 | |
| 11 | 7 TIME TO STRIKE LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 0.11% | 0.31% | 0.01x | ⚡ 3 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | TIME TO STRIKE | 11.7% | 0.0% | -11.7% | |
| 10 | MIDNIGHT PLAYBOY | 10.9% | 7.3% | -3.7% | |
| 6 | CROMWELL | 10.9% | 0.4% | -10.5% | |
| 11 | POWERSHIFT | 10.4% | 46.0% | +35.6% | |
| 8 | BOURBON DREAM | 8.7% | 28.1% | +19.4% | |
| 2 | STAKEHOLDER | 8.0% | 1.3% | -6.7% | |
| 4 | INGLEBOROUGH | 7.0% | 2.6% | -4.4% | |
| 3 | SILENT WAY | 7.0% | 1.5% | -5.5% | |
| 5 | GET THEM ROSES | 7.0% | 0.0% | -7.0% | |
| 1 | BHATIA | 6.5% | 2.2% | -4.3% | |
| 9 | WINSTON AVE | 6.4% | 10.5% | +4.1% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 11 POWERSHIFT 46.0% 3-1
- 8 BOURBON DREAM 28.1% 5-1
- 9 WINSTON AVE 10.5% 9-2
- 11 POWERSHIFT 74.1% 3-1
- 8 BOURBON DREAM 45.8% 5-1
- 9 WINSTON AVE 37.0% 9-2
- 11 POWERSHIFT 87.5% 3-1
- 9 WINSTON AVE 65.4% 9-2
- 8 BOURBON DREAM 57.1% 5-1