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DAENTRIES 2ND CDX MAY 2 8.5F L127000 0 BON 1 1/16 MILES DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING PURSE $127000 (11:32) (12)

🏟 Churchill Downs 📅 2026-05-02 📏 8½F Dirt OClm 125000n1x 💰 $127,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 12 Runners

1
OUT OF THE WOODS
13.8%
RPR 86
Form 1-3-3-
Off 29d
lbs 122
ML 6-1
J VELAZQUEZ J R
T DAMATO PHILIP
By CONSTITUTION Out of SENSITIVE
🥇 13.8% 🥈 21.6% 🥉 29.4% Avg 6.4
2
SOVEREIGN LAW
1.5%
RPR 83
Form 1-
Off 35d
lbs 120
ML 8-1
J FRANCO MANUEL
T COX BRAD H
By INTO MISCHIEF Out of SUN PATH
🥇 1.5% 🥈 3.9% 🥉 7.8% Avg 8.3
3
STEEL
0.6%
RPR 82
Form --
Off 28d
lbs 118
ML 20-1
J ALVARADO JUNIOR
T MOTT WILLIAM I
By TAPIT Out of SNUGGS AND KISSES
🥇 0.6% 🥈 2.3% 🥉 5.8% Avg 7.6 ⚡ 59 longshot wins
4
MEMORY
1.4%
RPR 82
Form 1-
Off 30d
lbs 120
ML 9-2
J PRAT FLAVIEN
T BAFFERT BOB
By UNCLE MO Out of SUNDAYSATTHEBEACH
🥇 1.4% 🥈 3.6% 🥉 6.9% Avg 8.7
5
SEAL BAY
0.9%
RPR 80
Form 113--2-
Off 36d
lbs 115
ML 30-1
J PAULY SUMMER
T MOGER ED JR
By MUNNINGS Out of BABY SEAL
🥇 0.9% 🥈 2.3% 🥉 4.6% Avg 9.6 ⚡ 90 longshot wins
6
MAKE MY DAY
3.8%
RPR 89
Form 1-
Off 43d
lbs 120
ML 8-1
J SAEZ LUIS
T PLETCHER TODD A
By GUN RUNNER Out of MAGICAL FEELING
🥇 3.8% 🥈 9.4% 🥉 17.5% Avg 6.6
7
VERY CONNECTED
5.1%
RPR 86
Form 1-----3-
Off 28d
lbs 118
ML 12-1
J ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER
T MCPEEK KENNETH G
By CONNECT Out of C J'S GAL
🥇 5.1% 🥈 11.6% 🥉 20.4% Avg 6.5 ⚡ 510 longshot wins
8
TAPTASTIC
37.6%
RPR 87
Form 21
Off 35d
lbs 120
ML 3-1
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T ASMUSSEN STEVEN M
By TAPIT Out of VALADORNA
🥇 37.6% 🥈 65.5% 🥉 81.1% Avg 2.4
9
OUR MONEYMAN
5.4%
RPR 88
Form 221212
Off 41d
lbs 120
ML 6-1
J CONCEPCION AXEL
T CALHOUN WILLIAM BRET
By MR. MONEY Out of LIPSTICK JUNKY
🥇 5.4% 🥈 16.2% 🥉 33.0% Avg 4.8
10
J J GREY
1.9%
RPR 80
Form 2-1-231
Off 22d
lbs 120
ML 15-1
J HERNANDEZ B J JR
T MCPEEK KENNETH G
By STREET BOSS Out of NORQUAY
🥇 1.9% 🥈 6.2% 🥉 13.8% Avg 6.5 ⚡ 188 longshot wins
11
LINCOLN'S LAW
27.0%
RPR 90
Form 21
Off 36d
lbs 118
ML 10-1
J GAFFALIONE TYLER
T BAUER PHILIP A
By LIAM'S MAP Out of BERNADREAMY
🥇 27.0% 🥈 54.0% 🥉 72.9% Avg 2.8 ⚡ 2700 longshot wins
12
SPIRIT OF ROYAL
1.1%
RPR 84
Form -------2
Off 42d
lbs 118
ML 30-1
J TORRES CRISTIAN A
T STEWART DALLAS
By GLOBAL CAMPAIGN Out of SPIRIT LETS HEARIT
🥇 1.1% 🥈 3.3% 🥉 6.9% Avg 8.1 ⚡ 112 longshot wins

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 11 LINCOLN'S LAW SPEED LEADER 90.5 10-1 36d 21 27.0%
2 6 MAKE MY DAY 89.5 8-1 43d 1- 3.8%
3 9 OUR MONEYMAN 88.7 6-1 41d 221212 5.4%
4 8 TAPTASTIC 87.5 3-1 35d 21 37.6%
5 7 VERY CONNECTED 86.7 12-1 28d ----3- 5.1%
6 1 OUT OF THE WOODS 86.3 6-1 29d 1-3-3- 13.8%
7 12 SPIRIT OF ROYAL 84 30-1 42d -----2 1.1%
8 2 SOVEREIGN LAW 83 8-1 35d 1- 1.5%
9 3 STEEL 82.5 20-1 28d -- 0.6%
10 4 MEMORY 82.5 9-2 30d 1- 1.4%
11 5 SEAL BAY 80.7 30-1 36d 13--2- 0.9%
12 10 J J GREY 80.3 15-1 22d -1-231 1.9%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-18 20:01:27
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 8 TAPTASTIC
37.64%
65.45% 81.14% 2.35 1 11 103.4 #4 ▲ —
2 11 LINCOLN'S LAW
27.00%
54.04% 72.88% 2.76 1 11 101.9 #1 ≈ ⚡ 2700
3 1 OUT OF THE WOODS
13.75%
21.58% 29.41% 6.41 1 12 92.0 #6 ▲ —
4 9 OUR MONEYMAN
5.40%
16.22% 32.99% 4.75 1 12 96.1 #3 ≈ —
5 7 VERY CONNECTED
5.10%
11.64% 20.42% 6.50 1 12 91.8 #5 ≈ ⚡ 510
6 6 MAKE MY DAY
3.76%
9.43% 17.48% 6.64 1 12 91.5 #2 ▼ —
7 10 J J GREY
1.88%
6.23% 13.78% 6.49 1 12 91.9 #12 ▲ ⚡ 188
8 2 SOVEREIGN LAW
1.49%
3.91% 7.78% 8.25 1 12 87.0 #8 ≈ —
9 4 MEMORY
1.37%
3.56% 6.85% 8.66 1 12 85.6 #10 ≈ —
10 12 SPIRIT OF ROYAL
1.12%
3.34% 6.87% 8.06 1 12 87.6 #7 ▼ ⚡ 112
11 5 SEAL BAY
0.90%
2.34% 4.61% 9.55 1 12 82.0 #11 ≈ ⚡ 90
12 3 STEEL
0.59%
2.26% 5.79% 7.57 1 12 89.4 #9 ▼ ⚡ 59

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 11 LINCOLN'S LAW LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 10-1 9.1%
27.00%
54.04% 72.88% 🔥 2.97x ⚡ 2700
2 8 TAPTASTIC 3-1 25%
37.64%
65.45% 81.14% ✅ 1.51x —
3 1 OUT OF THE WOODS 6-1 14.3%
13.75%
21.58% 29.41% 0.96x —
4 7 VERY CONNECTED LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
5.10%
11.64% 20.42% 0.66x ⚡ 510
5 9 OUR MONEYMAN 6-1 14.3%
5.40%
16.22% 32.99% 0.38x —
6 12 SPIRIT OF ROYAL LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
1.12%
3.34% 6.87% 0.35x ⚡ 112
7 6 MAKE MY DAY 8-1 11.1%
3.76%
9.43% 17.48% 0.34x —
8 10 J J GREY LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
1.88%
6.23% 13.78% 0.30x ⚡ 188
9 5 SEAL BAY LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.90%
2.34% 4.61% 0.28x ⚡ 90
10 2 SOVEREIGN LAW 8-1 11.1%
1.49%
3.91% 7.78% 0.13x —
11 3 STEEL LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
0.59%
2.26% 5.79% 0.12x ⚡ 59
12 4 MEMORY 9-2 18.2%
1.37%
3.56% 6.85% 0.08x —

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 12 horses, ~8.3% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
10 J J GREY 10.6% 1.9% -8.7%
9 OUR MONEYMAN 10.5% 5.4% -5.1%
4 MEMORY 10.0% 1.4% -8.6%
5 SEAL BAY 9.7% 0.9% -8.8%
6 MAKE MY DAY 9.3% 3.8% -5.5%
11 LINCOLN'S LAW 9.0% 27.0% +18.0%
2 SOVEREIGN LAW 8.3% 1.5% -6.8%
8 TAPTASTIC 7.7% 37.6% +29.9%
3 STEEL 7.5% 0.6% -6.9%
1 OUT OF THE WOODS 6.6% 13.8% +7.1%
12 SPIRIT OF ROYAL 6.1% 1.1% -5.0%
7 VERY CONNECTED 5.6% 5.1% -0.5%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 8 TAPTASTIC 37.6% 3-1
  2. 11 LINCOLN'S LAW 27.0% 10-1
  3. 1 OUT OF THE WOODS 13.8% 6-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 8 TAPTASTIC 65.5% 3-1
  2. 11 LINCOLN'S LAW 54.0% 10-1
  3. 1 OUT OF THE WOODS 21.6% 6-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 8 TAPTASTIC 81.1% 3-1
  2. 11 LINCOLN'S LAW 72.9% 10-1
  3. 9 OUR MONEYMAN 33.0% 6-1
📋 Exacta Box
8-11-1
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
8 TAPTASTIC 11 LINCOLN'S LAW 1 OUT OF THE WOODS
🎲 Trifecta
8-11-1
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
8 → 11-1-9
Key TAPTASTIC to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
8-11-1-9
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
8/11 / 8/11 / 1/9/7 / 1/9/7
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 OUT OF THE WOODS
2 SOVEREIGN LAW
3 STEEL
4 MEMORY
5 SEAL BAY
6 MAKE MY DAY
7 VERY CONNECTED
8 TAPTASTIC
9 OUR MONEYMAN
10 J J GREY
11 LINCOLN'S LAW
12 SPIRIT OF ROYAL