DGENTRIES 4TH CDX MAY 2 7F F1000000 1 CUM 7 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 4 YEAR OLDS AND UP GRADE 1 STAKE PURSE $1000000 (12:38) (6 )
Field — 6 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 WAYS AND MEANS SPEED LEADER | 105 | 8-5 | 330d | 13-221 | 20.8% |
| 2 | 5 SPLENDORA | 104 | 2-1 | 56d | 121-21 | 9.6% |
| 3 | 2 HAULIN ICE | 102 | 4-1 | 36d | 121111 | 47.5% |
| 4 | 1 USHA | 100.3 | 9-2 | 125d | 112332 | 15.6% |
| 5 | 6 R DISASTER | 100 | 6-1 | 28d | 121221 | 6.3% |
| 6 | 3 AUTUMN EVENING | 91.3 | 20-1 | 399d | 1--11- | 0.1% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 HAULIN ICE | 70.80% | 84.55% | 2.03 | 1 | 6 | 116.9 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 4 WAYS AND MEANS | 47.93% | 71.35% | 2.72 | 1 | 6 | 113.0 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 1 USHA | 29.22% | 41.82% | 3.66 | 1 | 6 | 107.6 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 5 SPLENDORA | 30.53% | 57.21% | 3.21 | 1 | 6 | 110.6 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 6 R DISASTER | 21.25% | 44.13% | 3.56 | 1 | 6 | 108.9 | #5 ≈ | — | |
| 6 | 3 AUTUMN EVENING | 0.27% | 0.94% | 5.83 | 1 | 6 | 90.1 | #6 ≈ | ⚡ 11 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 HAULIN ICE | 4-1 | 20% | 70.80% | 84.55% | 🔥 2.38x | — | |
| 2 | 1 USHA | 9-2 | 18.2% | 29.22% | 41.82% | 0.86x | — | |
| 3 | 4 WAYS AND MEANS | 8-5 | 38.5% | 47.93% | 71.35% | 0.54x | — | |
| 4 | 6 R DISASTER | 6-1 | 14.3% | 21.25% | 44.13% | 0.44x | — | |
| 5 | 5 SPLENDORA | 2-1 | 33.3% | 30.53% | 57.21% | 0.29x | — | |
| 6 | 3 AUTUMN EVENING LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 20-1 | 4.8% | 0.27% | 0.94% | 0.02x | ⚡ 11 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USHA | 19.6% | 15.6% | -4.0% | |
| 3 | AUTUMN EVENING | 18.3% | 0.1% | -18.2% | |
| 2 | HAULIN ICE | 16.7% | 47.5% | +30.8% | |
| 6 | R DISASTER | 15.5% | 6.3% | -9.2% | |
| 4 | WAYS AND MEANS | 14.8% | 20.8% | +6.0% | |
| 5 | SPLENDORA | 14.3% | 9.6% | -4.7% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 2 HAULIN ICE 47.5% 4-1
- 4 WAYS AND MEANS 20.8% 8-5
- 1 USHA 15.6% 9-2
- 2 HAULIN ICE 70.8% 4-1
- 4 WAYS AND MEANS 47.9% 8-5
- 5 SPLENDORA 30.5% 2-1
- 2 HAULIN ICE 84.6% 4-1
- 4 WAYS AND MEANS 71.4% 8-5
- 5 SPLENDORA 57.2% 2-1