TGENTRIES 7TH CDX MAY 2 8F I1000000 2 CUM 1 MILE TURF THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 4 YEAR OLDS AND UP GRADE 2 STAKE PURSE $1000000 (02:38) (9 )
Field — 9 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 MOVIN' ON UP SPEED LEADER | 97 | 12-1 | 20d | 23-211 | 47.0% |
| 2 | 2 SWEET REBECCA | 94 | 5-2 | 35d | 11211- | 39.4% |
| 3 | 8 PIN UP BETTY | 94 | 7-2 | 21d | --3-33 | 2.9% |
| 4 | 5 CLASSIC Q | 92 | 6-1 | 63d | -21--- | 0.9% |
| 5 | 4 TEMPTABLE | 89 | 8-1 | 182d | -1-312 | 8.2% |
| 6 | 6 VINA ARANA | 88.3 | 20-1 | 22d | 3-33-- | 0.2% |
| 7 | 1 ITALIAN SOIREE | 87.7 | 10-1 | 20d | -32-22 | 0.3% |
| 8 | 9 MAGGIE GO | 87.3 | 8-1 | 35d | 123121 | 1.0% |
| 9 | 3 PORTFOLIO DURATION | 84.7 | 4-1 | 35d | -3- | 0.2% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 MOVIN' ON UP | 80.78% | 93.53% | 1.83 | 1 | 8 | 111.1 | #1 ≈ | ⚡ 4696 | |
| 2 | 2 SWEET REBECCA | 76.91% | 91.22% | 1.98 | 1 | 9 | 110.2 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 4 TEMPTABLE | 15.05% | 24.18% | 6.15 | 1 | 9 | 92.2 | #5 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 8 PIN UP BETTY | 13.21% | 39.51% | 4.17 | 1 | 9 | 100.6 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 9 MAGGIE GO | 5.31% | 16.87% | 5.45 | 1 | 9 | 96.3 | #8 ▲ | — | |
| 6 | 5 CLASSIC Q | 4.86% | 19.11% | 5.10 | 1 | 9 | 97.6 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 7 | 1 ITALIAN SOIREE | 1.39% | 5.30% | 6.69 | 1 | 9 | 92.2 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 27 | |
| 8 | 3 PORTFOLIO DURATION | 1.51% | 6.37% | 6.36 | 1 | 9 | 93.5 | #9 ≈ | — | |
| 9 | 6 VINA ARANA | 0.98% | 3.91% | 7.27 | 1 | 9 | 89.6 | #6 ▼ | ⚡ 20 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 MOVIN' ON UP LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 12-1 | 7.7% | 80.78% | 93.53% | 🔥 6.10x | ⚡ 4696 | |
| 2 | 2 SWEET REBECCA | 5-2 | 28.6% | 76.91% | 91.22% | 1.38x | — | |
| 3 | 4 TEMPTABLE | 8-1 | 11.1% | 15.05% | 24.18% | 0.74x | — | |
| 4 | 8 PIN UP BETTY | 7-2 | 22.2% | 13.21% | 39.51% | 0.13x | — | |
| 5 | 9 MAGGIE GO | 8-1 | 11.1% | 5.31% | 16.87% | 0.09x | — | |
| 6 | 5 CLASSIC Q | 6-1 | 14.3% | 4.86% | 19.11% | 0.06x | — | |
| 7 | 6 VINA ARANA LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 0.98% | 3.91% | 0.04x | ⚡ 20 | |
| 8 | 1 ITALIAN SOIREE LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 1.39% | 5.30% | 0.03x | ⚡ 27 | |
| 9 | 3 PORTFOLIO DURATION | 4-1 | 20% | 1.51% | 6.37% | 0.01x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | VINA ARANA | 13.6% | 0.2% | -13.4% | |
| 1 | ITALIAN SOIREE | 13.1% | 0.3% | -12.8% | |
| 7 | MOVIN' ON UP | 11.8% | 47.0% | +35.2% | |
| 5 | CLASSIC Q | 11.5% | 0.9% | -10.6% | |
| 2 | SWEET REBECCA | 10.7% | 39.4% | +28.7% | |
| 8 | PIN UP BETTY | 9.8% | 2.9% | -6.9% | |
| 4 | TEMPTABLE | 9.2% | 8.2% | -1.0% | |
| 9 | MAGGIE GO | 9.0% | 1.0% | -8.0% | |
| 3 | PORTFOLIO DURATION | 8.7% | 0.2% | -8.5% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 7 MOVIN' ON UP 47.0% 12-1
- 2 SWEET REBECCA 39.4% 5-2
- 4 TEMPTABLE 8.2% 8-1
- 7 MOVIN' ON UP 80.8% 12-1
- 2 SWEET REBECCA 76.9% 5-2
- 4 TEMPTABLE 15.1% 8-1
- 7 MOVIN' ON UP 93.5% 12-1
- 2 SWEET REBECCA 91.2% 5-2
- 8 PIN UP BETTY 39.5% 7-2