DGENTRIES 8TH CDX MAY 2 8F L750000 2 BON 1 MILE DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS GRADE 2 STAKE PURSE $750000 (03:23) (12)
Field — 12 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 CRUDE VELOCITY SPEED LEADER | 98.5 | 5-2 | 28d | 11 | 28.2% |
| 2 | 1 ENGLISHMAN | 95 | 3-1 | 44d | 11 | 11.4% |
| 3 | 2 TROUBLE CALLING | 94 | 5-1 | 29d | 112-23 | 18.8% |
| 4 | 7 CROWN THE BUCKEYE | 93.3 | 6-1 | 63d | 2-1-12 | 1.0% |
| 5 | 4 SECURED FREEDOM | 92.3 | 20-1 | 56d | 221- | 5.7% |
| 6 | 8 CREOLE CHROME | 90.7 | 8-1 | 28d | -2131 | 11.9% |
| 7 | 11 ONE MORE FREUD | 90.5 | 15-1 | 245d | 11 | 0.1% |
| 8 | 9 LOCKSTOCKNPHAROAH | 88 | 20-1 | 49d | -11 | 0.9% |
| 9 | 5 STOP THE CAR | 87.7 | 20-1 | 42d | -221 | 18.1% |
| 10 | 10 GREAT WHITE | 84.3 | 12-1 | 28d | -1-1 | 2.5% |
| 11 | 12 BAYTOWN DREAMER | 84 | 50-1 | 42d | 211-1- | 1.2% |
| 12 | 3 WORK | 79 | 50-1 | 49d | -1-2-- | 0.4% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 CRUDE VELOCITY | 51.61% | 67.93% | 2.93 | 1 | 11 | 105.4 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 2 TROUBLE CALLING | 29.73% | 39.47% | 5.08 | 1 | 12 | 100.4 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 5 STOP THE CAR | 35.37% | 51.36% | 3.78 | 1 | 12 | 103.2 | #9 ▲ | ⚡ 1810 | |
| 4 | 8 CREOLE CHROME | 27.45% | 43.89% | 4.15 | 1 | 12 | 102.0 | #6 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 1 ENGLISHMAN | 26.22% | 42.31% | 4.22 | 1 | 12 | 102.0 | #2 ▼ | — | |
| 6 | 4 SECURED FREEDOM | 14.25% | 25.82% | 5.21 | 1 | 12 | 99.6 | #5 ≈ | ⚡ 566 | |
| 7 | 10 GREAT WHITE | 6.74% | 12.92% | 6.40 | 1 | 12 | 96.8 | #10 ▲ | ⚡ 253 | |
| 8 | 12 BAYTOWN DREAMER | 2.88% | 5.23% | 8.72 | 1 | 12 | 90.0 | #11 ▲ | ⚡ 123 | |
| 9 | 7 CROWN THE BUCKEYE | 2.30% | 3.99% | 9.08 | 1 | 12 | 88.8 | #4 ▼ | — | |
| 10 | 9 LOCKSTOCKNPHAROAH | 2.36% | 4.83% | 8.04 | 1 | 12 | 92.4 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 89 | |
| 11 | 3 WORK | 0.88% | 1.66% | 10.57 | 1 | 12 | 81.6 | #12 ≈ | ⚡ 36 | |
| 12 | 11 ONE MORE FREUD | 0.21% | 0.59% | 9.83 | 1 | 12 | 87.2 | #7 ▼ | ⚡ 5 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 STOP THE CAR LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 20-1 | 4.8% | 35.37% | 51.36% | 🔥 3.80x | ⚡ 1810 | |
| 2 | 4 SECURED FREEDOM LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 14.25% | 25.82% | 1.19x | ⚡ 566 | |
| 3 | 2 TROUBLE CALLING | 5-1 | 16.7% | 29.73% | 39.47% | 1.13x | — | |
| 4 | 8 CREOLE CHROME | 8-1 | 11.1% | 27.45% | 43.89% | 1.07x | — | |
| 5 | 6 CRUDE VELOCITY | 5-2 | 28.6% | 51.61% | 67.93% | 0.99x | — | |
| 6 | 12 BAYTOWN DREAMER LONGSHOT | 50-1 | 2% | 2.88% | 5.23% | 0.63x | ⚡ 123 | |
| 7 | 1 ENGLISHMAN | 3-1 | 25% | 26.22% | 42.31% | 0.45x | — | |
| 8 | 10 GREAT WHITE LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 6.74% | 12.92% | 0.33x | ⚡ 253 | |
| 9 | 9 LOCKSTOCKNPHAROAH LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 2.36% | 4.83% | 0.19x | ⚡ 89 | |
| 10 | 3 WORK LONGSHOT | 50-1 | 2% | 0.88% | 1.66% | 0.18x | ⚡ 36 | |
| 11 | 7 CROWN THE BUCKEYE | 6-1 | 14.3% | 2.30% | 3.99% | 0.07x | — | |
| 12 | 11 ONE MORE FREUD LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 0.21% | 0.59% | 0.01x | ⚡ 5 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SECURED FREEDOM | 9.9% | 5.7% | -4.2% | |
| 12 | BAYTOWN DREAMER | 9.8% | 1.2% | -8.6% | |
| 2 | TROUBLE CALLING | 9.4% | 18.8% | +9.4% | |
| 10 | GREAT WHITE | 8.9% | 2.5% | -6.4% | |
| 1 | ENGLISHMAN | 8.8% | 11.4% | +2.5% | |
| 11 | ONE MORE FREUD | 8.0% | 0.1% | -8.0% | |
| 3 | WORK | 7.7% | 0.4% | -7.3% | |
| 8 | CREOLE CHROME | 7.4% | 11.9% | +4.4% | |
| 6 | CRUDE VELOCITY | 6.7% | 28.2% | +21.4% | |
| 5 | STOP THE CAR | 6.3% | 18.1% | +11.8% | |
| 9 | LOCKSTOCKNPHAROAH | 6.1% | 0.9% | -5.2% | |
| 7 | CROWN THE BUCKEYE | 5.9% | 1.0% | -4.9% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 6 CRUDE VELOCITY 28.2% 5-2
- 2 TROUBLE CALLING 18.8% 5-1
- 5 STOP THE CAR 18.1% 20-1
- 6 CRUDE VELOCITY 51.6% 5-2
- 5 STOP THE CAR 35.4% 20-1
- 2 TROUBLE CALLING 29.7% 5-1
- 6 CRUDE VELOCITY 67.9% 5-2
- 5 STOP THE CAR 51.4% 20-1
- 8 CREOLE CHROME 43.9% 8-1