TGENTRIES 9TH CDX MAY 2 8.5F N1000000 1 BON 1 1/16 MILES TURF THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS GRADE 1 STAKE PURSE $1000000 (04:06) (14)
Field — 14 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 STARK CONTRAST SPEED LEADER | 93.3 | 4-1 | 42d | 31-2-- | 17.8% |
| 2 | 5 BLACKOUT TIME | 91.7 | 10-1 | 35d | 1-112 | 18.0% |
| 3 | 7 ALPYLAND | 90 | 8-1 | 56d | 1-13-- | 8.8% |
| 4 | 8 GREENWICH VILLAGE | 89.3 | 6-1 | 69d | 11-1 | 6.1% |
| 5 | 3 BLINGING IT BACK | 89 | 30-1 | 35d | 31-223 | 7.1% |
| 6 | 13 THOUSANDSTICKS | 88.3 | 15-1 | 63d | 21112- | 2.1% |
| 7 | 1 STREET BEAST | 88 | 15-1 | 29d | -12112 | 12.2% |
| 8 | 9 HONEY DUTCH | 87.3 | 12-1 | 29d | 11213- | 22.4% |
| 9 | 2 LET'S BE FRANK | 85 | 30-1 | 43d | ---3 | 0.0% |
| 10 | 10 VASY | 83.7 | 10-1 | 29d | -21--2 | 0.4% |
| 11 | 11 STEEL IMPERIUM | 83 | 30-1 | 42d | 3-1 | 0.1% |
| 12 | 12 REMEMBER MAMBA | 81.7 | 9-2 | 29d | -31 | 3.0% |
| 13 | 6 BLACK HORNET | 81.3 | 20-1 | 42d | 3-1-22 | 1.6% |
| 14 | 14 FINAL SCORE | 78.3 | 8-1 | 209d | 1112 | 0.5% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 HONEY DUTCH | 34.60% | 43.39% | 5.25 | 1 | 14 | 100.2 | #8 ▲ | ⚡ 2237 | |
| 2 | 5 BLACKOUT TIME | 40.37% | 59.52% | 3.44 | 1 | 14 | 103.0 | #2 ≈ | ⚡ 1801 | |
| 3 | 4 STARK CONTRAST | 34.29% | 48.18% | 4.31 | 1 | 14 | 101.4 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 1 STREET BEAST | 19.24% | 25.06% | 7.70 | 1 | 14 | 92.6 | #7 ▲ | ⚡ 1219 | |
| 5 | 7 ALPYLAND | 18.27% | 27.42% | 6.21 | 1 | 14 | 96.4 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 6 | 3 BLINGING IT BACK | 12.87% | 18.32% | 8.14 | 1 | 14 | 91.1 | #5 ≈ | ⚡ 714 | |
| 7 | 8 GREENWICH VILLAGE | 17.14% | 31.22% | 5.02 | 1 | 14 | 98.9 | #4 ▼ | — | |
| 8 | 12 REMEMBER MAMBA | 9.26% | 18.53% | 6.00 | 1 | 14 | 96.7 | #12 ▲ | — | |
| 9 | 13 THOUSANDSTICKS | 7.08% | 14.86% | 6.42 | 1 | 14 | 95.9 | #6 ▼ | ⚡ 209 | |
| 10 | 6 BLACK HORNET | 3.76% | 6.82% | 9.33 | 1 | 14 | 88.3 | #13 ▲ | ⚡ 161 | |
| 11 | 14 FINAL SCORE | 1.32% | 2.68% | 11.00 | 1 | 14 | 83.5 | #14 ▲ | — | |
| 12 | 10 VASY | 1.50% | 3.37% | 8.70 | 1 | 14 | 90.8 | #10 ≈ | ⚡ 41 | |
| 13 | 11 STEEL IMPERIUM | 0.29% | 0.57% | 10.83 | 1 | 14 | 85.3 | #11 ≈ | ⚡ 10 | |
| 14 | 2 LET'S BE FRANK | 0.01% | 0.06% | 12.66 | 1 | 14 | 79.1 | #9 ▼ | ⚡ 1 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 HONEY DUTCH LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 12-1 | 7.7% | 34.60% | 43.39% | 🔥 2.91x | ⚡ 2237 | |
| 2 | 3 BLINGING IT BACK LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 12.87% | 18.32% | 🔥 2.21x | ⚡ 714 | |
| 3 | 5 BLACKOUT TIME LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 40.37% | 59.52% | ✅ 1.98x | ⚡ 1801 | |
| 4 | 1 STREET BEAST LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 19.24% | 25.06% | ✅ 1.95x | ⚡ 1219 | |
| 5 | 4 STARK CONTRAST | 4-1 | 20% | 34.29% | 48.18% | 0.89x | — | |
| 6 | 7 ALPYLAND | 8-1 | 11.1% | 18.27% | 27.42% | 0.79x | — | |
| 7 | 8 GREENWICH VILLAGE | 6-1 | 14.3% | 17.14% | 31.22% | 0.42x | — | |
| 8 | 6 BLACK HORNET LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 3.76% | 6.82% | 0.34x | ⚡ 161 | |
| 9 | 13 THOUSANDSTICKS LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 7.08% | 14.86% | 0.33x | ⚡ 209 | |
| 10 | 12 REMEMBER MAMBA | 9-2 | 18.2% | 9.26% | 18.53% | 0.16x | — | |
| 11 | 10 VASY LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 1.50% | 3.37% | 0.05x | ⚡ 41 | |
| 12 | 14 FINAL SCORE | 8-1 | 11.1% | 1.32% | 2.68% | 0.04x | — | |
| 13 | 11 STEEL IMPERIUM LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 0.29% | 0.57% | 0.03x | ⚡ 10 | |
| 14 | 2 LET'S BE FRANK LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 0.01% | 0.06% | 0.00x | ⚡ 1 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | STREET BEAST | 9.0% | 12.2% | +3.2% | |
| 3 | BLINGING IT BACK | 7.7% | 7.1% | -0.6% | |
| 10 | VASY | 7.5% | 0.4% | -7.1% | |
| 7 | ALPYLAND | 7.1% | 8.8% | +1.7% | |
| 12 | REMEMBER MAMBA | 6.9% | 3.0% | -3.9% | |
| 6 | BLACK HORNET | 6.9% | 1.6% | -5.3% | |
| 9 | HONEY DUTCH | 6.8% | 22.4% | +15.6% | |
| 14 | FINAL SCORE | 6.6% | 0.5% | -6.1% | |
| 5 | BLACKOUT TIME | 6.0% | 18.0% | +12.0% | |
| 4 | STARK CONTRAST | 5.8% | 17.8% | +12.0% | |
| 13 | THOUSANDSTICKS | 5.8% | 2.1% | -3.7% | |
| 11 | STEEL IMPERIUM | 5.6% | 0.1% | -5.5% | |
| 8 | GREENWICH VILLAGE | 4.5% | 6.1% | +1.5% | |
| 2 | LET'S BE FRANK | 4.5% | 0.0% | -4.5% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 9 HONEY DUTCH 22.4% 12-1
- 5 BLACKOUT TIME 18.0% 10-1
- 4 STARK CONTRAST 17.8% 4-1
- 5 BLACKOUT TIME 40.4% 10-1
- 9 HONEY DUTCH 34.6% 12-1
- 4 STARK CONTRAST 34.3% 4-1
- 5 BLACKOUT TIME 59.5% 10-1
- 4 STARK CONTRAST 48.2% 4-1
- 9 HONEY DUTCH 43.4% 12-1