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TGENTRIES 11TH CDX MAY 2 9F J1500000 1 CUN 1 1/8 MILES TURF THOROUGHBRED OPEN 4 YEAR OLDS AND UP GRADE 1 STAKE PURSE $1500000 (05:39) (10)

🏟 Churchill Downs 📅 2026-05-02 📏 1 1/8M Turf TurfClsc-G1 💰 $1,500,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 10 Runners

1
CORRUPTION
10.4%
RPR 98
Form 2-311122-2
Off 35d
lbs 123
ML 15-1
J VELAZQUEZ J R
T CASSE MARK
By MEDAGLIA D'ORO Out of THUNDERING SKY
🥇 10.4% 🥈 27.3% 🥉 47.9% Avg 3.7 ⚡ 1041 longshot wins
2
DASHMAN
1.1%
RPR 96
Form -21-2-213-
Off 35d
lbs 123
ML 20-1
J ROSARIO JOEL
T LYNCH BRIAN A
By OSCAR PERFORMANCE Out of FLY BY
🥇 1.1% 🥈 3.8% 🥉 9.5% Avg 6.1 ⚡ 109 longshot wins
3
ASBURY PARK
0.0%
RPR 89
Form -----
Off 210d
lbs 123
ML 8-1
J PRAT FLAVIEN
T BROWN CHAD C
By FRANKEL Out of LIMONAR
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.0% 🥉 0.0% Avg 9.7
4
PROGRAM TRADING
34.3%
RPR 101
Form 22--211-31
Off 42d
lbs 123
ML 4-1
J GAFFALIONE TYLER
T BROWN CHAD C
By LOPE DE VEGA Out of DREAMLIKE
🥇 34.3% 🥈 65.7% 🥉 84.3% Avg 2.2
5
MERCANTE
5.9%
RPR 101
Form 1--3212111
Off 42d
lbs 123
ML 12-1
J RAMOS JOSEPH D
T KNIPPENBERG BRIAN
By GUN RUNNER Out of CARESSING
🥇 5.9% 🥈 16.6% 🥉 31.7% Avg 4.5 ⚡ 591 longshot wins
6
RHETORICAL
15.3%
RPR 97
Form 113-11-3
Off 22d
lbs 123
ML 5-2
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T WALDEN WILLIAM
By NOT THIS TIME Out of SHEET HUMOR
🥇 15.3% 🥈 34.4% 🥉 53.6% Avg 3.5
7
GOLD PHOENIX
2.3%
RPR 104
Form ------3--3
Off 42d
lbs 123
ML 10-1
J BERRIOS HECTOR ISAAC
T DAMATO PHILIP
By BELARDO Out of MAGNIFICA
🥇 2.3% 🥈 8.9% 🥉 19.5% Avg 5.2 ⚡ 230 longshot wins
8
ASTRONOMER
0.0%
RPR 96
Form 1-2-11332-
Off 29d
lbs 123
ML 30-1
J CASTELLANO J J
T CALLAGHAN SIMON
By AIR FORCE BLUE Out of QARAABA
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.1% 🥉 0.4% Avg 8.2 ⚡ 4 longshot wins
9
TEST SCORE
0.1%
RPR 99
Form 133-2313-3
Off 98d
lbs 123
ML 7-2
J FRANCO MANUEL
T MOTION H GRAHAM
By LOOKIN AT LUCKY Out of JOY OF LEARNING
🥇 0.1% 🥈 0.5% 🥉 1.4% Avg 7.9
10
MAKE ME KING
30.6%
Form -1-3--1333
Off 35d
lbs 123
ML 6-1
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T AL JEHANI HA
By DARK ANGEL Out of MISS INFINITY
🥇 30.6% 🥈 42.7% 🥉 51.8% Avg 3.9

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 7 GOLD PHOENIX SPEED LEADER 104 10-1 42d --3--3 2.3%
2 4 PROGRAM TRADING 101.3 4-1 42d 211-31 34.3%
3 5 MERCANTE 101.3 12-1 42d 212111 5.9%
4 9 TEST SCORE 99.3 7-2 98d 2313-3 0.1%
5 1 CORRUPTION 98 15-1 35d 1122-2 10.4%
6 6 RHETORICAL 97 5-2 22d 3-11-3 15.3%
7 2 DASHMAN 96 20-1 35d 2-213- 1.1%
8 8 ASTRONOMER 96 30-1 29d 11332- 0.0%
9 3 ASBURY PARK 89.3 8-1 210d ----- 0.0%
10 10 MAKE ME KING — First starter 6-1 35d --1333 30.6%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-18 20:01:30
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 4 PROGRAM TRADING
34.33%
65.74% 84.27% 2.25 1 8 118.1 #2 ≈ —
2 10 MAKE ME KING
30.56%
42.70% 51.81% 3.93 1 10 113.7 #10 ▲ —
3 6 RHETORICAL
15.26%
34.36% 53.64% 3.54 1 10 113.2 #6 ▲ —
4 1 CORRUPTION
10.41%
27.34% 47.92% 3.73 1 10 112.3 #5 ≈ ⚡ 1041
5 5 MERCANTE
5.91%
16.64% 31.69% 4.47 1 10 109.6 #3 ≈ ⚡ 591
6 7 GOLD PHOENIX
2.30%
8.85% 19.50% 5.16 1 10 107.0 #1 ▼ ⚡ 230
7 2 DASHMAN
1.09%
3.78% 9.45% 6.08 1 10 103.4 #7 ≈ ⚡ 109
8 9 TEST SCORE
0.10%
0.48% 1.35% 7.92 1 10 95.3 #4 ▼ —
9 8 ASTRONOMER
0.04%
0.11% 0.37% 8.20 1 10 94.3 #8 ≈ ⚡ 4
10 3 ASBURY PARK
0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 9.75 4 10 82.5 #9 ≈ —

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 10 MAKE ME KING 6-1 14.3%
30.56%
42.70% 51.81% 🔥 2.14x —
2 4 PROGRAM TRADING 4-1 20%
34.33%
65.74% 84.27% ✅ 1.72x —
3 1 CORRUPTION LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 15-1 6.3%
10.41%
27.34% 47.92% ✅ 1.67x ⚡ 1041
4 5 MERCANTE LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
5.91%
16.64% 31.69% 0.77x ⚡ 591
5 6 RHETORICAL 5-2 28.6%
15.26%
34.36% 53.64% 0.53x —
6 7 GOLD PHOENIX LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
2.30%
8.85% 19.50% 0.25x ⚡ 230
7 2 DASHMAN LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
1.09%
3.78% 9.45% 0.23x ⚡ 109
8 8 ASTRONOMER LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.04%
0.11% 0.37% 0.01x ⚡ 4
9 9 TEST SCORE 7-2 22.2%
0.10%
0.48% 1.35% 0.00x —
10 3 ASBURY PARK 8-1 11.1%
0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00x —

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 10 horses, ~10% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
6 RHETORICAL 11.0% 15.3% +4.3%
7 GOLD PHOENIX 10.9% 2.3% -8.6%
10 MAKE ME KING 10.0% 30.6% +20.6%
5 MERCANTE 10.0% 5.9% -4.1%
1 CORRUPTION 9.8% 10.4% +0.6%
2 DASHMAN 8.8% 1.1% -7.7%
3 ASBURY PARK 8.8% 0.0% -8.8%
8 ASTRONOMER 8.4% 0.0% -8.4%
4 PROGRAM TRADING 7.5% 34.3% +26.8%
9 TEST SCORE 7.5% 0.1% -7.4%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 4 PROGRAM TRADING 34.3% 4-1
  2. 10 MAKE ME KING 30.6% 6-1
  3. 6 RHETORICAL 15.3% 5-2
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 4 PROGRAM TRADING 65.7% 4-1
  2. 10 MAKE ME KING 42.7% 6-1
  3. 6 RHETORICAL 34.4% 5-2
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 4 PROGRAM TRADING 84.3% 4-1
  2. 6 RHETORICAL 53.6% 5-2
  3. 10 MAKE ME KING 51.8% 6-1
📋 Exacta Box
4-10-6
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
4 PROGRAM TRADING 10 MAKE ME KING 6 RHETORICAL
🎲 Trifecta
4-10-6
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
4 → 10-6-1
Key PROGRAM TRADING to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
4-10-6-1
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
4/10 / 4/10 / 6/1/5 / 6/1/5
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 CORRUPTION
2 DASHMAN
3 ASBURY PARK
4 PROGRAM TRADING
5 MERCANTE
6 RHETORICAL
7 GOLD PHOENIX
8 ASTRONOMER
9 TEST SCORE
10 MAKE ME KING