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DGENTRIES 12TH CDX MAY 2 10F X5000000 1 BON 1 1/4 MILES DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS GRADE 1 STAKE PURSE $5000000 (06:57) (24)

🏟 Churchill Downs 📅 2026-05-02 📏 1 ¼M Dirt KyDerby-G1 💰 $5,000,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 24 Runners

1
RENEGADE
7.4%
RPR 96
Form ----3
Off 35d
lbs 126
ML 4-1
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T PLETCHER TODD A
By INTO MISCHIEF Out of SPICE IS NICE
🥇 7.4% 🥈 13.4% 🥉 19.1% Avg 9.9
2
ALBUS
0.0%
RPR 87
Form -13-
Off 28d
lbs 126
ML 30-1
J FRANCO MANUEL
T MOTT RILEY
By YAUPON Out of ADREAM
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.0% 🥉 0.0% Avg 18.9 ⚡ 1 longshot wins
3
INTREPIDO
2.0%
RPR 94
Form 22-11-
Off 28d
lbs 126
ML 50-1
J BERRIOS HECTOR ISAAC
T MULLINS JEFF
By MAXIMUS MISCHIEF Out of OVERLY INDULGENT
🥇 2.0% 🥈 5.4% 🥉 9.8% Avg 9.3 ⚡ 202 longshot wins
4
LITMUS TEST
1.2%
RPR 95
Form 33131-1
Off 35d
lbs 126
ML 50-1
J GARCIA MARTIN
T BAFFERT BOB
By NYQUIST Out of STUDY HARD
🥇 1.2% 🥈 3.1% 🥉 5.9% Avg 10.1 ⚡ 119 longshot wins
5
RIGHT TO PARTY
0.1%
RPR 86
Form --33
Off 28d
lbs 126
ML 30-1
J ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER
T MCPEEK KENNETH G
By CONSTITUTION Out of HAVIN' A PARTY
🥇 0.1% 🥈 0.1% 🥉 0.2% Avg 17.2 ⚡ 5 longshot wins
6
COMMANDMENT
12.9%
RPR 99
Form 3331-
Off 35d
lbs 126
ML 6-1
J SAEZ LUIS
T COX BRAD H
By INTO MISCHIEF Out of SIPPICAN HARBOR
🥇 12.9% 🥈 24.5% 🥉 35.3% Avg 6.2
7
DANON BOURBON
13.9%
Form 111
Off 35d
lbs 126
ML 20-1
J NISHIMURA ATSUYA
T IKEZOE MANABU
By MAXFIELD Out of WILD RIDGE
🥇 13.9% 🥈 19.8% 🥉 24.3% Avg 11.2 ⚡ 1390 longshot wins
8
SO HAPPY
13.2%
RPR 99
Form 1311
Off 28d
lbs 126
ML 15-1
J SMITH M E
T GLATT MARK
By RUNHAPPY Out of SO CUNNING
🥇 13.2% 🥈 28.4% 🥉 43.3% Avg 4.7 ⚡ 1318 longshot wins
9
THE PUMA
0.4%
RPR 95
Form --22
Off 35d
lbs 126
ML 10-1
J CASTELLANO J J
T DELGADO GUSTAVO
By ESSENTIAL QUALITY Out of EVE OF WAR
🥇 0.4% 🥈 0.9% 🥉 2.2% Avg 12.2 ⚡ 35 longshot wins
10
WONDER DEAN
2.8%
Form 1-221-
Off 35d
lbs 126
ML 30-1
J SAKAI RYUSEI
T TAKAYANAGI DAISUKE
By DEE MAJESTY Out of WONDER SIANG PRAW
🥇 2.8% 🥈 5.1% 🥉 6.9% Avg 17.1 ⚡ 284 longshot wins
11
INCREDIBOLT
1.2%
RPR 92
Form 13-2-
Off 49d
lbs 126
ML 20-1
J TORRES JAIME A
T MOTT RILEY
By BOLT D'ORO Out of SAPPHIRE SPITFIRE
🥇 1.2% 🥈 2.5% 🥉 3.8% Avg 17.0 ⚡ 124 longshot wins
12
CHIEF WALLABEE
16.2%
RPR 99
Form 1-1
Off 35d
lbs 126
ML 8-1
J ALVARADO JUNIOR
T MOTT WILLIAM I
By CONSTITUTION Out of A LA LUCIE
🥇 16.2% 🥈 33.9% 🥉 50.2% Avg 4.2
13
SILENT TACTIC
1.0%
RPR 92
Form 33-232
Off 35d
lbs 126
ML 20-1
J TORRES CRISTIAN A
T CASSE MARK
By TACITUS Out of MAGICAL SIGN
🥇 1.0% 🥈 2.7% 🥉 4.9% Avg 12.3 ⚡ 101 longshot wins
14
POTENTE
14.3%
RPR 95
Form 211
Off 28d
lbs 126
ML 20-1
J HERNANDEZ JUAN J
T BAFFERT BOB
By INTO MISCHIEF Out of SWEET STING
🥇 14.3% 🥈 31.7% 🥉 47.3% Avg 4.3 ⚡ 1427 longshot wins
15
EMERGING MARKET
1.1%
RPR 100
Form 13
Off 42d
lbs 126
ML 15-1
J PRAT FLAVIEN
T BROWN CHAD C
By CANDY RIDE Out of WILD EMPRESS
🥇 1.1% 🥈 3.2% 🥉 5.9% Avg 9.7 ⚡ 110 longshot wins
16
PAVLOVIAN
3.9%
RPR 93
Form 21---2-212
Off 42d
lbs 126
ML 30-1
J MALDONADO E
T O'NEILL DOUG
By PAVEL Out of MANDY'S GRACE
🥇 3.9% 🥈 7.7% 🥉 11.8% Avg 11.7 ⚡ 386 longshot wins
17
SIX SPEED
1.7%
Form 21113
Off 35d
lbs 126
ML 50-1
J HERNANDEZ B J JR
T SEEMAR BHUPAT
By NOT THIS TIME Out of BROWSE
🥇 1.7% 🥈 3.0% 🥉 4.2% Avg 18.6 ⚡ 171 longshot wins
18
FURTHER ADO
4.8%
RPR 98
Form 12313-
Off 28d
lbs 126
ML 6-1
J VELAZQUEZ J R
T COX BRAD H
By GUN RUNNER Out of SKY DREAMER
🥇 4.8% 🥈 9.3% 🥉 14.3% Avg 10.0
19
GOLDEN TEMPO
0.4%
RPR 93
Form ---1
Off 42d
lbs 126
ML 30-1
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T DEVAUX CHERIE
By CURLIN Out of CARRUMBA
🥇 0.4% 🥈 1.2% 🥉 2.7% Avg 12.3 ⚡ 42 longshot wins
20
FULLEFFORT
0.7%
RPR 91
Form ----2--
Off 42d
lbs 126
ML 20-1
J GAFFALIONE TYLER
T COX BRAD H
By LIAM'S MAP Out of CALLMETHESQUEEZE
🥇 0.7% 🥈 1.8% 🥉 3.4% Avg 15.5 ⚡ 72 longshot wins
21
GREAT WHITE
0.0%
RPR 84
Form -1-1
Off 28d
lbs 126
ML 50-1
J ACHARD ALEX
T ENNIS JOHN
By VOLATILE Out of KELLY BAG
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.0% 🥉 0.1% Avg 18.6 ⚡ 2 longshot wins
22
OCELLI
0.0%
RPR 89
Form -223-3
Off 28d
lbs 126
ML 50-1
J RAMOS JOSEPH D
T BECKMAN D WHITWORTH
By CONNECT Out of ZALIA
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.1% 🥉 0.1% Avg 19.2 ⚡ 3 longshot wins
23
ROBUSTA
0.2%
RPR 90
Form -1-1-
Off 28d
lbs 126
ML 50-1
J JARAMILLO E
T O'NEILL DOUG
By ACCELERATE Out of URBANE LEGEND
🥇 0.2% 🥈 0.4% 🥉 0.9% Avg 16.0 ⚡ 15 longshot wins
24
CORONA DE ORO
0.7%
RPR 88
Form 3123-
Off 21d
lbs 126
ML 50-1
J HERNANDEZ B J JR
T STEWART DALLAS
By BOLT D'ORO Out of LEMON DE ORO
🥇 0.7% 🥈 1.9% 🥉 3.5% Avg 13.8 ⚡ 69 longshot wins

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 15 EMERGING MARKET SPEED LEADER 100.5 15-1 42d 13 1.1%
2 6 COMMANDMENT 99.7 6-1 35d 3331- 12.9%
3 12 CHIEF WALLABEE 99.7 8-1 35d 1-1 16.2%
4 8 SO HAPPY 99.3 15-1 28d 1311 13.2%
5 18 FURTHER ADO 98.3 6-1 28d 12313- 4.8%
6 1 RENEGADE 96.7 4-1 35d ----3 7.4%
7 9 THE PUMA 95.7 10-1 35d --22 0.4%
8 14 POTENTE 95.7 20-1 28d 211 14.3%
9 4 LITMUS TEST 95 50-1 35d 3131-1 1.2%
10 3 INTREPIDO 94.7 50-1 28d 22-11- 2.0%
11 16 PAVLOVIAN 93.7 30-1 42d -2-212 3.9%
12 19 GOLDEN TEMPO 93 30-1 42d ---1 0.4%
13 11 INCREDIBOLT 92.7 20-1 49d 13-2- 1.2%
14 13 SILENT TACTIC 92.7 20-1 35d 33-232 1.0%
15 20 FULLEFFORT 91.7 20-1 42d ---2-- 0.7%
16 23 ROBUSTA 90 50-1 28d -1-1- 0.2%
17 22 OCELLI 89.3 50-1 28d -223-3 0.0%
18 24 CORONA DE ORO 88.3 50-1 21d 3123- 0.7%
19 2 ALBUS 87.7 30-1 28d -13- 0.0%
20 5 RIGHT TO PARTY 86.7 30-1 28d --33 0.1%
21 21 GREAT WHITE 84.3 50-1 28d -1-1 0.0%
22 7 DANON BOURBON — First starter 20-1 35d 111 13.9%
23 10 WONDER DEAN — First starter 30-1 35d 1-221- 2.8%
24 17 SIX SPEED — First starter 50-1 35d 21113 1.7%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-18 20:01:31
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 12 CHIEF WALLABEE
16.21%
33.87% 50.20% 4.18 1 21 109.9 #3 ≈ —
2 14 POTENTE
14.27%
31.70% 47.27% 4.33 1 20 109.6 #8 ▲ ⚡ 1427
3 7 DANON BOURBON
13.90%
19.75% 24.31% 11.24 1 24 99.6 #22 ▲ ⚡ 1390
4 8 SO HAPPY
13.18%
28.43% 43.34% 4.69 1 20 109.1 #4 ≈ ⚡ 1318
5 6 COMMANDMENT
12.88%
24.50% 35.27% 6.19 1 24 107.2 #2 ▼ —
6 1 RENEGADE
7.39%
13.42% 19.11% 9.89 1 24 101.4 #6 ≈ —
7 18 FURTHER ADO
4.76%
9.27% 14.28% 9.99 1 24 101.2 #5 ≈ —
8 16 PAVLOVIAN
3.86%
7.66% 11.75% 11.69 1 24 98.8 #11 ▲ ⚡ 386
9 10 WONDER DEAN
2.84%
5.14% 6.86% 17.13 1 24 87.5 #23 ▲ ⚡ 284
10 3 INTREPIDO
2.02%
5.42% 9.75% 9.32 1 24 101.7 #10 ≈ ⚡ 202
11 17 SIX SPEED
1.71%
2.99% 4.24% 18.57 1 24 84.3 #24 ▲ ⚡ 171
12 11 INCREDIBOLT
1.24%
2.53% 3.78% 16.97 1 24 89.6 #13 ≈ ⚡ 124
13 4 LITMUS TEST
1.19%
3.09% 5.94% 10.11 1 24 100.6 #9 ▼ ⚡ 119
14 15 EMERGING MARKET
1.10%
3.15% 5.93% 9.72 1 24 101.0 #1 ▼ ⚡ 110
15 13 SILENT TACTIC
1.01%
2.68% 4.90% 12.28 1 24 97.6 #14 ≈ ⚡ 101
16 20 FULLEFFORT
0.72%
1.82% 3.40% 15.47 1 24 92.8 #15 ≈ ⚡ 72
17 24 CORONA DE ORO
0.69%
1.85% 3.45% 13.84 1 24 95.5 #18 ≈ ⚡ 69
18 19 GOLDEN TEMPO
0.42%
1.19% 2.72% 12.25 1 24 97.7 #12 ▼ ⚡ 42
19 9 THE PUMA
0.35%
0.91% 2.19% 12.21 1 24 97.7 #7 ▼ ⚡ 35
20 23 ROBUSTA
0.15%
0.43% 0.86% 16.05 1 24 92.3 #16 ▼ ⚡ 15
21 5 RIGHT TO PARTY
0.05%
0.07% 0.23% 17.20 1 24 90.9 #20 ≈ ⚡ 5
22 22 OCELLI
0.03%
0.07% 0.08% 19.16 1 24 87.8 #17 ▼ ⚡ 3
23 21 GREAT WHITE
0.02%
0.04% 0.10% 18.64 1 24 88.7 #21 ≈ ⚡ 2
24 2 ALBUS
0.01%
0.02% 0.04% 18.88 1 24 88.3 #19 ▼ ⚡ 1

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 14 POTENTE LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 20-1 4.8%
14.27%
31.70% 47.27% 🔥 3.00x ⚡ 1427
2 7 DANON BOURBON LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
13.90%
19.75% 24.31% 🔥 2.92x ⚡ 1390
3 8 SO HAPPY LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
13.18%
28.43% 43.34% 🔥 2.11x ⚡ 1318
4 12 CHIEF WALLABEE 8-1 11.1%
16.21%
33.87% 50.20% 1.46x —
5 16 PAVLOVIAN LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
3.86%
7.66% 11.75% 1.20x ⚡ 386
6 3 INTREPIDO LONGSHOT 50-1 2%
2.02%
5.42% 9.75% 1.03x ⚡ 202
7 6 COMMANDMENT 6-1 14.3%
12.88%
24.50% 35.27% 0.90x —
8 10 WONDER DEAN LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
2.84%
5.14% 6.86% 0.88x ⚡ 284
9 17 SIX SPEED LONGSHOT 50-1 2%
1.71%
2.99% 4.24% 0.87x ⚡ 171
10 4 LITMUS TEST LONGSHOT 50-1 2%
1.19%
3.09% 5.94% 0.61x ⚡ 119
11 1 RENEGADE 4-1 20%
7.39%
13.42% 19.11% 0.37x —
12 24 CORONA DE ORO LONGSHOT 50-1 2%
0.69%
1.85% 3.45% 0.35x ⚡ 69
13 18 FURTHER ADO 6-1 14.3%
4.76%
9.27% 14.28% 0.33x —
14 11 INCREDIBOLT LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
1.24%
2.53% 3.78% 0.26x ⚡ 124
15 13 SILENT TACTIC LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
1.01%
2.68% 4.90% 0.21x ⚡ 101
16 15 EMERGING MARKET LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
1.10%
3.15% 5.93% 0.18x ⚡ 110
17 20 FULLEFFORT LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
0.72%
1.82% 3.40% 0.15x ⚡ 72
18 19 GOLDEN TEMPO LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.42%
1.19% 2.72% 0.13x ⚡ 42
19 23 ROBUSTA LONGSHOT 50-1 2%
0.15%
0.43% 0.86% 0.08x ⚡ 15
20 9 THE PUMA LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
0.35%
0.91% 2.19% 0.04x ⚡ 35
21 5 RIGHT TO PARTY LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.05%
0.07% 0.23% 0.02x ⚡ 5
22 22 OCELLI LONGSHOT 50-1 2%
0.03%
0.07% 0.08% 0.02x ⚡ 3
23 21 GREAT WHITE LONGSHOT 50-1 2%
0.02%
0.04% 0.10% 0.01x ⚡ 2
24 2 ALBUS LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.01%
0.02% 0.04% 0.00x ⚡ 1

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 24 horses, ~4.2% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
9 THE PUMA 7.2% 0.4% -6.9%
4 LITMUS TEST 7.0% 1.2% -5.8%
12 CHIEF WALLABEE 6.8% 16.2% +9.4%
6 COMMANDMENT 6.7% 12.9% +6.2%
3 INTREPIDO 6.3% 2.0% -4.3%
18 FURTHER ADO 6.0% 4.8% -1.2%
21 GREAT WHITE 5.9% 0.0% -5.9%
23 ROBUSTA 5.7% 0.2% -5.6%
13 SILENT TACTIC 5.5% 1.0% -4.5%
22 OCELLI 5.5% 0.0% -5.5%
15 EMERGING MARKET 5.4% 1.1% -4.3%
1 RENEGADE 5.1% 7.4% +2.3%
7 DANON BOURBON 4.9% 13.9% +9.0%
14 POTENTE 3.5% 14.3% +10.8%
11 INCREDIBOLT 3.5% 1.2% -2.3%
10 WONDER DEAN 3.3% 2.8% -0.5%
8 SO HAPPY 3.0% 13.2% +10.2%
2 ALBUS 2.8% 0.0% -2.8%
5 RIGHT TO PARTY 2.5% 0.1% -2.5%
17 SIX SPEED 2.3% 1.7% -0.6%
19 GOLDEN TEMPO 1.5% 0.4% -1.1%
24 CORONA DE ORO 1.3% 0.7% -0.6%
16 PAVLOVIAN 1.2% 3.9% +2.7%
20 FULLEFFORT 1.2% 0.7% -0.5%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 12 CHIEF WALLABEE 16.2% 8-1
  2. 14 POTENTE 14.3% 20-1
  3. 7 DANON BOURBON 13.9% 20-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 12 CHIEF WALLABEE 33.9% 8-1
  2. 14 POTENTE 31.7% 20-1
  3. 8 SO HAPPY 28.4% 15-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 12 CHIEF WALLABEE 50.2% 8-1
  2. 14 POTENTE 47.3% 20-1
  3. 8 SO HAPPY 43.3% 15-1
📋 Exacta Box
12-14-7
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
12 CHIEF WALLABEE 14 POTENTE 7 DANON BOURBON
🎲 Trifecta
12-14-7
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
12 → 14-7-8
Key CHIEF WALLABEE to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
12-14-7-8
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
12/14 / 12/14 / 7/8/6 / 7/8/6
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 RENEGADE
2 ALBUS
3 INTREPIDO
4 LITMUS TEST
5 RIGHT TO PARTY
6 COMMANDMENT
7 DANON BOURBON
8 SO HAPPY
9 THE PUMA
10 WONDER DEAN
11 INCREDIBOLT
12 CHIEF WALLABEE
13 SILENT TACTIC
14 POTENTE
15 EMERGING MARKET
16 PAVLOVIAN
17 SIX SPEED
18 FURTHER ADO
19 GOLDEN TEMPO
20 FULLEFFORT
21 GREAT WHITE
22 OCELLI
23 ROBUSTA
24 CORONA DE ORO