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DAENTRIES 13TH CDX MAY 2 6.5F K127000 0 BON 6 1/2 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING PURSE $127000 (08:00) (11)

🏟 Churchill Downs 📅 2026-05-02 📏 6½F Dirt OClm 125000n1x 💰 $127,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 11 Runners

1
SMALL TOWN
1.6%
RPR 80
Form 221
Off 42d
lbs 118
ML 8-1
J PRAT FLAVIEN
T MCCARTHY MICHAEL W
By SPEIGHTSTOWN Out of BIG MEESH
🥇 1.6% 🥈 6.7% 🥉 17.3% Avg 4.6
2
HEARTILY
0.3%
RPR 69
Form --1
Off 107d
lbs 118
ML 12-1
J VELAZQUEZ J R
T WARD WESLEY A
By COMPLEXITY Out of WE LOVE LUCY
🥇 0.3% 🥈 0.8% 🥉 1.4% Avg 9.4 ⚡ 25 longshot wins
3
RED LAD
0.0%
RPR 67
Form -331--
Off 238d
lbs 118
ML 30-1
J SHEEHY DANNY
T MCENTEE PAUL
By AMERICAN PHAROAH Out of COLORADO CLASS
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.0% 🥉 0.0% Avg 10.2
4
RING CURL
0.8%
RPR 73
Form 1-11-
Off 22d
lbs 122
ML 15-1
J ANTONGEORGI WILLIAM JR
T WISMER TROY S
By CURLIN Out of SOUTHERN RING
🥇 0.8% 🥈 2.1% 🥉 3.7% Avg 7.7 ⚡ 76 longshot wins
5
HULKAMANIA
17.6%
RPR 82
Form 21
Off 56d
lbs 118
ML 8-1
J GAFFALIONE TYLER
T BECKMAN D WHITWORTH
By MCKINZIE Out of PARIS AMOUR
🥇 17.6% 🥈 42.7% 🥉 69.1% Avg 2.8
6
CRUISIN CHUCK
0.0%
RPR 80
Form --33-
Off 34d
lbs 120
ML 15-1
J MORALES EDGAR
T FOLEY GREG
By UNCLE CHUCK Out of MANDOLIN
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.0% 🥉 0.2% Avg 7.5
7
SAV'N MONEY
0.0%
RPR 76
Form 2---12
Off 44d
lbs 118
ML 20-1
J HERNANDEZ B J JR
T CATALANO WAYNE M
By YAUPON Out of WINDHOEK
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.0% 🥉 0.0% Avg 8.7
8
GILDED BANDIT
9.8%
RPR 94
Form 1-
Off 28d
lbs 122
ML 3-1
J ALVARADO JUNIOR
T MOTT WILLIAM I
By CHARLATAN Out of DIAMOND ORE
🥇 9.8% 🥈 27.9% 🥉 53.1% Avg 3.3
9
THUNDER BUCK
0.0%
RPR 80
Form -13-
Off 56d
lbs 118
ML 15-1
J SAEZ LUIS
T WALSH BRENDAN P
By GUN RUNNER Out of OXY LADY
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.0% 🥉 0.2% Avg 7.0 ⚡ 1 longshot wins
10
BUETANE
27.1%
RPR 94
Form -11221
Off 28d
lbs 118
ML 5-2
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T BAFFERT BOB
By TIZ THE LAW Out of TABOO
🥇 27.1% 🥈 49.1% 🥉 67.7% Avg 2.8
11
NOBLE AFFAIR
42.9%
RPR 87
Form 213
Off 35d
lbs 118
ML 9-2
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T ASMUSSEN STEVEN M
By VEKOMA Out of PADEN AFFAIR
🥇 42.9% 🥈 70.6% 🥉 87.4% Avg 2.0

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 8 GILDED BANDIT SPEED LEADER 94.5 3-1 28d 1- 9.8%
2 10 BUETANE 94.3 5-2 28d -11221 27.1%
3 11 NOBLE AFFAIR 87.3 9-2 35d 213 42.9%
4 5 HULKAMANIA 82 8-1 56d 21 17.6%
5 1 SMALL TOWN 80.7 8-1 42d 221 1.6%
6 9 THUNDER BUCK 80.7 15-1 56d -13- 0.0%
7 6 CRUISIN CHUCK 80 15-1 34d --33- 0.0%
8 7 SAV'N MONEY 76 20-1 44d 2---12 0.0%
9 4 RING CURL 73.7 15-1 22d 1-11- 0.8%
10 2 HEARTILY 69.7 12-1 107d --1 0.3%
11 3 RED LAD 67.3 30-1 238d -331-- 0.0%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-18 20:01:31
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 11 NOBLE AFFAIR
42.91%
70.58% 87.40% 2.03 1 8 107.2 #3 ≈ —
2 10 BUETANE
27.08%
49.11% 67.66% 2.76 1 9 104.0 #2 ≈ —
3 5 HULKAMANIA
17.61%
42.74% 69.14% 2.84 1 9 103.2 #4 ≈ —
4 8 GILDED BANDIT
9.76%
27.92% 53.06% 3.33 1 8 101.2 #1 ▼ —
5 1 SMALL TOWN
1.62%
6.69% 17.31% 4.55 1 10 95.6 #5 ≈ —
6 4 RING CURL
0.76%
2.13% 3.68% 7.71 1 11 78.9 #9 ▲ ⚡ 76
7 2 HEARTILY
0.25%
0.76% 1.37% 9.36 1 11 67.4 #10 ▲ ⚡ 25
8 9 THUNDER BUCK
0.01%
0.03% 0.21% 7.05 1 11 82.7 #6 ≈ ⚡ 1
9 3 RED LAD
0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 10.17 5 11 65.1 #11 ≈ —
10 6 CRUISIN CHUCK
0.00%
0.04% 0.17% 7.50 2 11 80.6 #7 ▼ —
11 7 SAV'N MONEY
0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 8.71 4 11 74.4 #8 ▼ —

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 11 NOBLE AFFAIR 9-2 18.2%
42.91%
70.58% 87.40% 🔥 2.36x —
2 5 HULKAMANIA 8-1 11.1%
17.61%
42.74% 69.14% ✅ 1.58x —
3 10 BUETANE 5-2 28.6%
27.08%
49.11% 67.66% 0.95x —
4 8 GILDED BANDIT 3-1 25%
9.76%
27.92% 53.06% 0.39x —
5 1 SMALL TOWN 8-1 11.1%
1.62%
6.69% 17.31% 0.15x —
6 4 RING CURL LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 15-1 6.3%
0.76%
2.13% 3.68% 0.12x ⚡ 76
7 2 HEARTILY LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
0.25%
0.76% 1.37% 0.03x ⚡ 25
8 9 THUNDER BUCK LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.01%
0.03% 0.21% 0.00x ⚡ 1
9 3 RED LAD LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00x —
10 6 CRUISIN CHUCK LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.00%
0.04% 0.17% 0.00x —
11 7 SAV'N MONEY LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00x —

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 11 horses, ~9.1% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
2 HEARTILY 11.8% 0.3% -11.6%
8 GILDED BANDIT 11.7% 9.8% -1.9%
4 RING CURL 10.5% 0.8% -9.7%
9 THUNDER BUCK 10.2% 0.0% -10.2%
5 HULKAMANIA 10.0% 17.6% +7.6%
10 BUETANE 9.5% 27.1% +17.6%
1 SMALL TOWN 8.7% 1.6% -7.1%
7 SAV'N MONEY 8.5% 0.0% -8.5%
6 CRUISIN CHUCK 7.8% 0.0% -7.8%
3 RED LAD 7.2% 0.0% -7.2%
11 NOBLE AFFAIR 6.2% 42.9% +36.7%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 11 NOBLE AFFAIR 42.9% 9-2
  2. 10 BUETANE 27.1% 5-2
  3. 5 HULKAMANIA 17.6% 8-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 11 NOBLE AFFAIR 70.6% 9-2
  2. 10 BUETANE 49.1% 5-2
  3. 5 HULKAMANIA 42.7% 8-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 11 NOBLE AFFAIR 87.4% 9-2
  2. 5 HULKAMANIA 69.1% 8-1
  3. 10 BUETANE 67.7% 5-2
📋 Exacta Box
11-10-5
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
11 NOBLE AFFAIR 10 BUETANE 5 HULKAMANIA
🎲 Trifecta
11-10-5
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
11 → 10-5-8
Key NOBLE AFFAIR to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
11-10-5-8
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
11/10 / 11/10 / 5/8/1 / 5/8/1
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 SMALL TOWN
2 HEARTILY
3 RED LAD
4 RING CURL
5 HULKAMANIA
6 CRUISIN CHUCK
7 SAV'N MONEY
8 GILDED BANDIT
9 THUNDER BUCK
10 BUETANE
11 NOBLE AFFAIR