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DSENTRIES 3RD RPX MAY 1 J22500 0 AON 330.00 FURLONGS DIRT QUARTER HORSE OPEN 2 YEAR OLDS MAIDEN PURSE $22500 (06:54) (10)

🏟 Remington Park 📅 2026-05-01 📏 330Y Dirt Md Sp Wt 💰 $22,500
📡 Fetch History

Field — 10 Runners

1
VALIANT RESOLVE
3.3%
RPR 65
Form -
Off 28d
lbs 124
ML 10-1
J BROOKS J D
T WILLIS EDDIE D
By UNCLE D Out of WEETONAS LAFAWN
🥇 3.3% 🥈 9.3% 🥉 17.9% Avg 6.0 ⚡ 325 longshot wins
2
TOMORROWS DYNASTY
0.3%
RPR 50
Form -
Off 28d
lbs 124
ML 5-2
J CALDERON FRANCISCO
T STINEBAUGH JOHN A
By FDD DYNASTY Out of MY TOMORROW
🥇 0.3% 🥈 1.3% 🥉 3.4% Avg 8.0
3
TNR AUNT G
16.3%
RPR 74
Form 2
Off 43d
lbs 124
ML 5-1
J VALLES GONZALO R JR
T HERNANDEZ-MARTINEZ JOSE
By UNCLE D Out of LETHAL ECLIPSE
🥇 16.3% 🥈 35.2% 🥉 52.1% Avg 3.8
4
FIRST MOON DANCE
4.2%
lbs 124
ML 20-1
J ALVIDREZ ARMANDO
T OLMSTEAD JASON L
By VALIANT HERO Out of MIDNIGHT EAGLE
🥇 4.2% 🥈 9.5% 🥉 15.0% Avg 7.0 ⚡ 423 longshot wins
5
POLITICAL DIME PIECE
40.5%
RPR 85
Form 3
Off 43d
lbs 124
ML 4-1
J MATA JAIME
T GONZALEZ JORGE
By APOLLITICAL JESS Out of PRESLEE THE FIRST
🥇 40.5% 🥈 63.3% 🥉 76.9% Avg 2.5
6
JUST BERNALS DYNASTY
3.6%
RPR 63
Form -
Off 42d
lbs 124
ML 20-1
J VEGA RANDY
T LOPEZ JOAQUIN
By FDD DYNASTY Out of NOCORONAJUSTBUD
🥇 3.6% 🥈 10.4% 🥉 19.8% Avg 5.8 ⚡ 362 longshot wins
7
MISS SOUTHERN PERRY
7.2%
lbs 124
ML 12-1
J GARCIA RAMIRO HARO
T OLMSTEAD JASON L
By MR JESS PERRY Out of VALIANT JESS
🥇 7.2% 🥈 14.5% 🥉 22.6% Avg 6.2 ⚡ 724 longshot wins
8
FIRST PRIZED JEWEL
6.1%
RPR 69
Form -
Off 40d
lbs 124
ML 20-1
J CRUZ ROMAN
T KEENER DEE
By PRIZED WAGON Out of FLYINFIRSTCLASSJEWEL
🥇 6.1% 🥈 16.0% 🥉 28.3% Avg 5.2 ⚡ 610 longshot wins
9
RED CLOUD
8.3%
lbs 124
ML 10-1
J RAMIREZ ANGEL O
T HARDY EDWARD ROSS
By KISS MY HOCKS Out of SHE FORGIVES
🥇 8.3% 🥈 16.2% 🥉 24.5% Avg 6.1 ⚡ 832 longshot wins
10
BACK CHECK
10.1%
RPR 74
Form -
Off 41d
lbs 124
ML 7-2
J ESCOBEDO EDWIN G
T JUNGERS MARC E
By DULCE SIN TACHA Out of BACK IN THE PACK
🥇 10.1% 🥈 24.5% 🥉 39.5% Avg 4.4

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 5 POLITICAL DIME PIECE SPEED LEADER 85 4-1 43d 3 40.5%
2 3 TNR AUNT G 74 5-1 43d 2 16.3%
3 10 BACK CHECK 74 7-2 41d - 10.1%
4 8 FIRST PRIZED JEWEL 69 20-1 40d - 6.1%
5 1 VALIANT RESOLVE 65 10-1 28d - 3.3%
6 6 JUST BERNALS DYNASTY 63 20-1 42d - 3.6%
7 2 TOMORROWS DYNASTY 50 5-2 28d - 0.3%
8 4 FIRST MOON DANCE — First starter 20-1 — — 4.2%
9 7 MISS SOUTHERN PERRY — First starter 12-1 — — 7.2%
10 9 RED CLOUD — First starter 10-1 — — 8.3%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-18 20:01:27
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 5 POLITICAL DIME PIECE
40.51%
63.30% 76.91% 2.49 1 10 87.3 #1 ≈ —
2 3 TNR AUNT G
16.33%
35.20% 52.12% 3.77 1 10 77.2 #2 ≈ —
3 10 BACK CHECK
10.06%
24.51% 39.54% 4.44 1 10 72.7 #3 ≈ —
4 9 RED CLOUD
8.32%
16.18% 24.51% 6.07 1 10 61.8 #10 ▲ ⚡ 832
5 7 MISS SOUTHERN PERRY
7.24%
14.46% 22.55% 6.22 1 10 60.0 #9 ▲ ⚡ 724
6 8 FIRST PRIZED JEWEL
6.10%
16.00% 28.33% 5.19 1 10 67.6 #4 ≈ ⚡ 610
7 4 FIRST MOON DANCE
4.23%
9.45% 15.02% 7.00 1 10 54.0 #8 ≈ ⚡ 423
8 6 JUST BERNALS DYNASTY
3.62%
10.37% 19.79% 5.82 1 10 63.4 #6 ≈ ⚡ 362
9 1 VALIANT RESOLVE
3.25%
9.27% 17.86% 5.98 1 10 62.9 #5 ▼ ⚡ 325
10 2 TOMORROWS DYNASTY
0.34%
1.26% 3.37% 8.03 1 10 48.1 #7 ▼ —

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 5 POLITICAL DIME PIECE 4-1 20%
40.51%
63.30% 76.91% 🔥 2.03x —
2 8 FIRST PRIZED JEWEL LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 20-1 4.8%
6.10%
16.00% 28.33% 1.28x ⚡ 610
3 3 TNR AUNT G 5-1 16.7%
16.33%
35.20% 52.12% 0.98x —
4 7 MISS SOUTHERN PERRY LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
7.24%
14.46% 22.55% 0.94x ⚡ 724
5 9 RED CLOUD LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
8.32%
16.18% 24.51% 0.92x ⚡ 832
6 4 FIRST MOON DANCE LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
4.23%
9.45% 15.02% 0.89x ⚡ 423
7 6 JUST BERNALS DYNASTY LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
3.62%
10.37% 19.79% 0.76x ⚡ 362
8 10 BACK CHECK 7-2 22.2%
10.06%
24.51% 39.54% 0.45x —
9 1 VALIANT RESOLVE LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
3.25%
9.27% 17.86% 0.36x ⚡ 325
10 2 TOMORROWS DYNASTY 5-2 28.6%
0.34%
1.26% 3.37% 0.01x —

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 10 horses, ~10% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
2 TOMORROWS DYNASTY 12.9% 0.3% -12.6%
8 FIRST PRIZED JEWEL 12.3% 6.1% -6.2%
5 POLITICAL DIME PIECE 11.6% 40.5% +28.9%
3 TNR AUNT G 11.5% 16.3% +4.8%
10 BACK CHECK 11.5% 10.1% -1.4%
6 JUST BERNALS DYNASTY 10.3% 3.6% -6.7%
9 RED CLOUD 9.9% 8.3% -1.6%
4 FIRST MOON DANCE 9.1% 4.2% -4.9%
7 MISS SOUTHERN PERRY 8.4% 7.2% -1.2%
1 VALIANT RESOLVE 7.8% 3.3% -4.6%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 5 POLITICAL DIME PIECE 40.5% 4-1
  2. 3 TNR AUNT G 16.3% 5-1
  3. 10 BACK CHECK 10.1% 7-2
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 5 POLITICAL DIME PIECE 63.3% 4-1
  2. 3 TNR AUNT G 35.2% 5-1
  3. 10 BACK CHECK 24.5% 7-2
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 5 POLITICAL DIME PIECE 76.9% 4-1
  2. 3 TNR AUNT G 52.1% 5-1
  3. 10 BACK CHECK 39.5% 7-2
📋 Exacta Box
5-3-10
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
5 POLITICAL DIME PIECE 3 TNR AUNT G 10 BACK CHECK
🎲 Trifecta
5-3-10
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
5 → 3-10-9
Key POLITICAL DIME PIECE to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
5-3-10-9
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
5/3 / 5/3 / 10/9/7 / 10/9/7
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 VALIANT RESOLVE
2 TOMORROWS DYNASTY
3 TNR AUNT G
4 FIRST MOON DANCE
5 POLITICAL DIME PIECE
6 JUST BERNALS DYNASTY
7 MISS SOUTHERN PERRY
8 FIRST PRIZED JEWEL
9 RED CLOUD
10 BACK CHECK