DMENTRIES 4TH RPX MAY 1 J12000 30000 0 AON 330.00 FURLONGS DIRT MIXED OPEN 2 YEAR OLDS MAIDEN CLAIMING 30000-ALL PURSE $12000 (07:21) (10)
Field — 10 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 FLYINDWNTHETURNPIKE SPEED LEADER | 72 | 2-1 | 22d | -2 | 22.3% |
| 2 | 10 TC CRUISING CRUE | 72 | 5-1 | 41d | -3 | 18.0% |
| 3 | 9 GO LADY BUG | 69 | 6-1 | 20d | 2-2 | 1.8% |
| 4 | 4 KENTUCKY OWL | 65 | 12-1 | 34d | 2 | 24.5% |
| 5 | 5 TURBO BOOST | 62.3 | 9-2 | 22d | -2- | 6.6% |
| 6 | 6 JESS A LITTLE MAGIC | 51 | 15-1 | 22d | - | 0.8% |
| 7 | 7 FAMOUS LIL APACHE | 33 | 20-1 | 34d | -- | 0.0% |
| 8 | 1 IMA TURNPIKER | — First starter | 10-1 | — | — | 9.6% |
| 9 | 2 CANT FAKE THIS | — First starter | 8-1 | — | — | 12.3% |
| 10 | 8 STAR 94 | — First starter | 15-1 | — | — | 4.2% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 KENTUCKY OWL | 40.12% | 52.84% | 3.64 | 1 | 10 | 73.5 | #4 ▲ | ⚡ 2452 | |
| 2 | 3 FLYINDWNTHETURNPIKE | 42.14% | 59.39% | 3.26 | 1 | 10 | 75.2 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 10 TC CRUISING CRUE | 48.45% | 75.23% | 2.72 | 1 | 8 | 76.9 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 2 CANT FAKE THIS | 20.09% | 26.61% | 5.67 | 1 | 10 | 59.7 | #9 ▲ | — | |
| 5 | 1 IMA TURNPIKER | 16.25% | 22.71% | 6.03 | 1 | 10 | 56.2 | #8 ▲ | ⚡ 960 | |
| 6 | 5 TURBO BOOST | 14.38% | 24.12% | 5.20 | 1 | 10 | 63.6 | #5 ≈ | — | |
| 7 | 8 STAR 94 | 7.93% | 11.35% | 7.20 | 1 | 10 | 47.0 | #10 ▲ | ⚡ 415 | |
| 8 | 9 GO LADY BUG | 8.47% | 23.75% | 4.51 | 1 | 9 | 68.1 | #3 ▼ | — | |
| 9 | 6 JESS A LITTLE MAGIC | 2.17% | 4.00% | 7.46 | 1 | 10 | 47.5 | #6 ▼ | ⚡ 77 | |
| 10 | 7 FAMOUS LIL APACHE | 0.00% | 0.00% | 9.33 | 4 | 10 | 31.0 | #7 ▼ | — |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 KENTUCKY OWL LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 12-1 | 7.7% | 40.12% | 52.84% | 🔥 3.19x | ⚡ 2452 | |
| 2 | 2 CANT FAKE THIS | 8-1 | 11.1% | 20.09% | 26.61% | 1.11x | — | |
| 3 | 10 TC CRUISING CRUE | 5-1 | 16.7% | 48.45% | 75.23% | 1.08x | — | |
| 4 | 1 IMA TURNPIKER LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 16.25% | 22.71% | 1.06x | ⚡ 960 | |
| 5 | 3 FLYINDWNTHETURNPIKE | 2-1 | 33.3% | 42.14% | 59.39% | 0.67x | — | |
| 6 | 8 STAR 94 LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 7.93% | 11.35% | 0.66x | ⚡ 415 | |
| 7 | 5 TURBO BOOST | 9-2 | 18.2% | 14.38% | 24.12% | 0.36x | — | |
| 8 | 9 GO LADY BUG | 6-1 | 14.3% | 8.47% | 23.75% | 0.13x | — | |
| 9 | 6 JESS A LITTLE MAGIC LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 2.17% | 4.00% | 0.12x | ⚡ 77 | |
| 10 | 7 FAMOUS LIL APACHE LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | TURBO BOOST | 12.9% | 6.6% | -6.3% | |
| 3 | FLYINDWNTHETURNPIKE | 11.5% | 22.3% | +10.8% | |
| 4 | KENTUCKY OWL | 11.4% | 24.5% | +13.1% | |
| 2 | CANT FAKE THIS | 10.7% | 12.3% | +1.6% | |
| 6 | JESS A LITTLE MAGIC | 10.3% | 0.8% | -9.5% | |
| 9 | GO LADY BUG | 10.2% | 1.8% | -8.4% | |
| 10 | TC CRUISING CRUE | 9.7% | 18.0% | +8.3% | |
| 8 | STAR 94 | 7.7% | 4.2% | -3.6% | |
| 1 | IMA TURNPIKER | 7.4% | 9.6% | +2.2% | |
| 7 | FAMOUS LIL APACHE | 7.0% | 0.0% | -7.0% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 4 KENTUCKY OWL 24.5% 12-1
- 3 FLYINDWNTHETURNPIKE 22.3% 2-1
- 10 TC CRUISING CRUE 18.0% 5-1
- 10 TC CRUISING CRUE 48.5% 5-1
- 3 FLYINDWNTHETURNPIKE 42.1% 2-1
- 4 KENTUCKY OWL 40.1% 12-1
- 10 TC CRUISING CRUE 75.2% 5-1
- 3 FLYINDWNTHETURNPIKE 59.4% 2-1
- 4 KENTUCKY OWL 52.8% 12-1