DMENTRIES 6TH RPX MAY 1 STATE-BRED J19500 10000 0 GON 300.00 FURLONGS DIRT QUARTER HORSE OPEN 3 ; 4; AND 5 YEAR OLDS MAIDEN CLAIMING 10000-ALL PURSE $19500 (08:15) (10)
Field — 10 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 UNCLE WISDOM SPEED LEADER | 85.7 | 3-1 | 22d | ----2- | 45.2% |
| 2 | 6 GG CORONADO | 85 | 6-1 | 222d | 3----- | 13.3% |
| 3 | 1 JESSIES BLUE WAGON | 82 | 10-1 | 15d | --32-- | 9.6% |
| 4 | 10 EL SIXTO | 81.7 | 12-1 | 14d | -----3 | 9.6% |
| 5 | 4 GRAY BOY SIX | 74 | 5-1 | 183d | 2-3--- | 0.2% |
| 6 | 7 FANCY QUICK DASH | 74 | 8-1 | 33d | 2---33 | 4.4% |
| 7 | 5 MAKE IT COUNTRY | 71.3 | 15-1 | 33d | ---2-- | 2.5% |
| 8 | 2 EYES ON MY TAIL | 66.7 | 8-1 | 14d | 3-- | 0.1% |
| 9 | 3 RAMM BAMM | 66 | 4-1 | 14d | 2 | 15.2% |
| 10 | 9 CORONA HALO | 64.7 | 15-1 | 14d | ------ | 0.0% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 UNCLE WISDOM | 69.74% | 83.04% | 2.20 | 1 | 10 | 83.3 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 3 RAMM BAMM | 28.93% | 41.34% | 4.66 | 1 | 10 | 70.2 | #9 ▲ | — | |
| 3 | 6 GG CORONADO | 24.49% | 34.84% | 5.32 | 1 | 10 | 67.3 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 1 JESSIES BLUE WAGON | 28.56% | 51.01% | 3.69 | 1 | 10 | 73.6 | #3 ≈ | ⚡ 959 | |
| 5 | 10 EL SIXTO | 24.21% | 39.68% | 4.50 | 1 | 10 | 70.6 | #4 ≈ | ⚡ 957 | |
| 6 | 7 FANCY QUICK DASH | 14.80% | 29.08% | 4.81 | 1 | 10 | 68.9 | #6 ≈ | — | |
| 7 | 5 MAKE IT COUNTRY | 7.57% | 15.42% | 6.30 | 1 | 10 | 62.5 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 247 | |
| 8 | 4 GRAY BOY SIX | 1.08% | 3.00% | 7.51 | 1 | 10 | 57.6 | #5 ▼ | — | |
| 9 | 2 EYES ON MY TAIL | 0.53% | 2.35% | 7.19 | 1 | 10 | 59.1 | #8 ≈ | — | |
| 10 | 9 CORONA HALO | 0.09% | 0.24% | 8.81 | 1 | 10 | 52.2 | #10 ≈ | ⚡ 1 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 UNCLE WISDOM | 3-1 | 25% | 69.74% | 83.04% | ✅ 1.81x | — | |
| 2 | 10 EL SIXTO LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 12-1 | 7.7% | 24.21% | 39.68% | 1.24x | ⚡ 957 | |
| 3 | 1 JESSIES BLUE WAGON LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 28.56% | 51.01% | 1.05x | ⚡ 959 | |
| 4 | 6 GG CORONADO | 6-1 | 14.3% | 24.49% | 34.84% | 0.93x | — | |
| 5 | 3 RAMM BAMM | 4-1 | 20% | 28.93% | 41.34% | 0.76x | — | |
| 6 | 7 FANCY QUICK DASH | 8-1 | 11.1% | 14.80% | 29.08% | 0.40x | — | |
| 7 | 5 MAKE IT COUNTRY LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 7.57% | 15.42% | 0.40x | ⚡ 247 | |
| 8 | 4 GRAY BOY SIX | 5-1 | 16.7% | 1.08% | 3.00% | 0.01x | — | |
| 9 | 2 EYES ON MY TAIL | 8-1 | 11.1% | 0.53% | 2.35% | 0.01x | — | |
| 10 | 9 CORONA HALO LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 0.09% | 0.24% | 0.00x | ⚡ 1 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | GG CORONADO | 12.4% | 13.3% | +0.9% | |
| 4 | GRAY BOY SIX | 11.7% | 0.2% | -11.5% | |
| 5 | MAKE IT COUNTRY | 11.4% | 2.5% | -8.9% | |
| 7 | FANCY QUICK DASH | 11.2% | 4.4% | -6.8% | |
| 1 | JESSIES BLUE WAGON | 10.6% | 9.6% | -1.0% | |
| 2 | EYES ON MY TAIL | 10.1% | 0.1% | -10.0% | |
| 10 | EL SIXTO | 10.0% | 9.6% | -0.4% | |
| 3 | RAMM BAMM | 8.9% | 15.2% | +6.3% | |
| 9 | CORONA HALO | 7.4% | 0.0% | -7.4% | |
| 8 | UNCLE WISDOM | 7.2% | 45.2% | +38.0% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 8 UNCLE WISDOM 45.2% 3-1
- 3 RAMM BAMM 15.2% 4-1
- 6 GG CORONADO 13.3% 6-1
- 8 UNCLE WISDOM 69.7% 3-1
- 3 RAMM BAMM 28.9% 4-1
- 1 JESSIES BLUE WAGON 28.6% 10-1
- 8 UNCLE WISDOM 83.0% 3-1
- 1 JESSIES BLUE WAGON 51.0% 10-1
- 3 RAMM BAMM 41.3% 4-1