DMENTRIES 4TH TAM MAY 3 8F40Y H20000 10000 0 BUN 1 MILE 40 YARDS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP MAIDEN CLAIMING 10000-8000 PURSE $20000 (02:05) (8 )
Field — 8 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 HOTTER THAN DEM SPEED LEADER | 72.3 | 8-5 | 16d | -212-- | 92.2% |
| 2 | 2 OPERA HOUSE A. D. | 63.3 | 6-1 | 18d | 32--- | 1.8% |
| 3 | 1 BABYBACK | 59.3 | 9-2 | 15d | ------ | 3.1% |
| 4 | 5 REAGAN'S RENEGADE | 58.3 | 10-1 | 15d | ------ | 1.1% |
| 5 | 7 AMERICA LIVES | 58.3 | 15-1 | 18d | ---- | 0.0% |
| 6 | 3 IMPONENTE | 54 | 3-1 | 44d | 22- | 1.7% |
| 7 | 6 VIRGIN ISLAND NICE | 47.7 | 30-1 | 7d | 1---2- | 0.2% |
| 8 | 8 STILLNOHASSLEJJ | 45 | 8-1 | 7d | ---- | 0.1% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 HOTTER THAN DEM | 98.15% | 99.50% | 1.10 | 1 | 6 | 85.0 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 1 BABYBACK | 18.55% | 28.15% | 5.07 | 1 | 8 | 51.2 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 2 OPERA HOUSE A. D. | 28.25% | 58.70% | 3.34 | 1 | 8 | 60.7 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 3 IMPONENTE | 37.20% | 71.35% | 3.03 | 1 | 8 | 62.3 | #6 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 5 REAGAN'S RENEGADE | 12.05% | 24.90% | 4.76 | 1 | 8 | 53.3 | #4 ≈ | ⚡ 21 | |
| 6 | 6 VIRGIN ISLAND NICE | 2.95% | 8.40% | 5.92 | 1 | 8 | 46.5 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 4 | |
| 7 | 8 STILLNOHASSLEJJ | 1.30% | 2.40% | 7.20 | 1 | 8 | 33.9 | #8 ≈ | — | |
| 8 | 7 AMERICA LIVES | 1.55% | 6.60% | 5.57 | 2 | 8 | 49.5 | #5 ▼ | — |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 HOTTER THAN DEM | 8-5 | 38.5% | 98.15% | 99.50% | 🔥 2.40x | — | |
| 2 | 1 BABYBACK | 9-2 | 18.2% | 18.55% | 28.15% | 0.17x | — | |
| 3 | 2 OPERA HOUSE A. D. | 6-1 | 14.3% | 28.25% | 58.70% | 0.13x | — | |
| 4 | 5 REAGAN'S RENEGADE LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 10-1 | 9.1% | 12.05% | 24.90% | 0.12x | ⚡ 21 | |
| 5 | 3 IMPONENTE | 3-1 | 25% | 37.20% | 71.35% | 0.07x | — | |
| 6 | 6 VIRGIN ISLAND NICE LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 2.95% | 8.40% | 0.06x | ⚡ 4 | |
| 7 | 8 STILLNOHASSLEJJ | 8-1 | 11.1% | 1.30% | 2.40% | 0.00x | — | |
| 8 | 7 AMERICA LIVES LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 1.55% | 6.60% | 0.00x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | REAGAN'S RENEGADE | 15.0% | 1.1% | -14.0% | |
| 3 | IMPONENTE | 13.4% | 1.7% | -11.8% | |
| 6 | VIRGIN ISLAND NICE | 13.0% | 0.2% | -12.8% | |
| 2 | OPERA HOUSE A. D. | 12.5% | 1.8% | -10.7% | |
| 4 | HOTTER THAN DEM | 11.5% | 92.2% | +80.7% | |
| 1 | BABYBACK | 10.9% | 3.1% | -7.9% | |
| 7 | AMERICA LIVES | 10.1% | 0.0% | -10.1% | |
| 8 | STILLNOHASSLEJJ | 9.8% | 0.1% | -9.8% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 4 HOTTER THAN DEM 92.2% 8-5
- 1 BABYBACK 3.1% 9-2
- 2 OPERA HOUSE A. D. 1.8% 6-1
- 4 HOTTER THAN DEM 98.2% 8-5
- 3 IMPONENTE 37.2% 3-1
- 2 OPERA HOUSE A. D. 28.3% 6-1
- 4 HOTTER THAN DEM 99.5% 8-5
- 3 IMPONENTE 71.4% 3-1
- 2 OPERA HOUSE A. D. 58.7% 6-1
🏆 Actual Results
| # | Prog | Horse | Finish | Margin | Odds | Sim Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | OPERA HOUSE A. D. | — | — | Sim #3 (1.8% win) | |
| 2 | 4 | HOTTER THAN DEM | — | — | Sim #1 (92.2% win) | |
| 3 | 5 | REAGAN'S RENEGADE | — | — | Sim #5 (1.1% win) | |
| 4 | 7 | AMERICA LIVES | — | — | Sim #8 (0.0% win) | |
| 5 | 1 | BABYBACK | — | — | Sim #2 (3.1% win) | |
| 6 | 3 | IMPONENTE | — | — | Sim #4 (1.7% win) | |
| 7 | 6 | VIRGIN ISLAND NICE | — | — | Sim #6 (0.2% win) | |
| 8 | 8 | STILLNOHASSLEJJ | — | — | Sim #7 (0.1% win) |
Official winner: OPERA HOUSE A. D.