DCENTRIES 8TH RPX MAY 1 H14500 10000 0 BUN 300.00 FURLONGS DIRT QUARTER HORSE OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP CLAIMING 10000-ALL PURSE $14500 (09:09) (8 )
Field — 8 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 HIS ROYAL MAJESTI SPEED LEADER | 91.7 | 3-1 | 42d | 3-1--1 | 39.9% |
| 2 | 2 KISS FOR MONEY | 90 | 15-1 | 48d | ----33 | 3.6% |
| 3 | 1 REYNAS PRITTY BOY | 86.3 | 10-1 | 40d | 3123-3 | 30.2% |
| 4 | 5 BV MY DARLING EAGLE | 86 | 2-1 | 20d | ---2-3 | 12.2% |
| 5 | 4 SEND ME FURRST | 84.3 | 12-1 | 230d | -1-2-- | 0.4% |
| 6 | 3 HER NAME IN LIGHTS | 83.3 | 5-1 | 15d | -11-33 | 10.3% |
| 7 | 7 IM THAT LUCKY PENNY | 82.3 | 8-1 | 20d | 13---- | 2.9% |
| 8 | 8 THE LIGHT OF GRACE | 78 | 9-2 | 20d | --1--- | 0.6% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 HIS ROYAL MAJESTI | 57.49% | 69.60% | 2.81 | 1 | 8 | 96.0 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 1 REYNAS PRITTY BOY | 55.85% | 72.28% | 2.71 | 1 | 8 | 94.7 | #3 ≈ | ⚡ 3021 | |
| 3 | 5 BV MY DARLING EAGLE | 36.75% | 64.58% | 3.09 | 1 | 8 | 91.6 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 3 HER NAME IN LIGHTS | 26.35% | 44.63% | 3.92 | 1 | 8 | 88.4 | #6 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 2 KISS FOR MONEY | 10.26% | 18.92% | 5.52 | 1 | 8 | 80.9 | #2 ▼ | ⚡ 357 | |
| 6 | 7 IM THAT LUCKY PENNY | 8.63% | 16.46% | 5.74 | 1 | 8 | 79.8 | #7 ≈ | — | |
| 7 | 8 THE LIGHT OF GRACE | 3.06% | 8.45% | 5.88 | 1 | 8 | 80.0 | #8 ≈ | — | |
| 8 | 4 SEND ME FURRST | 1.61% | 5.08% | 6.32 | 1 | 8 | 78.0 | #5 ▼ | ⚡ 40 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 REYNAS PRITTY BOY LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 10-1 | 9.1% | 55.85% | 72.28% | 🔥 3.32x | ⚡ 3021 | |
| 2 | 6 HIS ROYAL MAJESTI | 3-1 | 25% | 57.49% | 69.60% | ✅ 1.60x | — | |
| 3 | 3 HER NAME IN LIGHTS | 5-1 | 16.7% | 26.35% | 44.63% | 0.62x | — | |
| 4 | 2 KISS FOR MONEY LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 10.26% | 18.92% | 0.57x | ⚡ 357 | |
| 5 | 5 BV MY DARLING EAGLE | 2-1 | 33.3% | 36.75% | 64.58% | 0.37x | — | |
| 6 | 7 IM THAT LUCKY PENNY | 8-1 | 11.1% | 8.63% | 16.46% | 0.26x | — | |
| 7 | 4 SEND ME FURRST LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 1.61% | 5.08% | 0.05x | ⚡ 40 | |
| 8 | 8 THE LIGHT OF GRACE | 9-2 | 18.2% | 3.06% | 8.45% | 0.03x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | REYNAS PRITTY BOY | 15.5% | 30.2% | +14.7% | |
| 3 | HER NAME IN LIGHTS | 14.1% | 10.3% | -3.8% | |
| 7 | IM THAT LUCKY PENNY | 13.8% | 2.9% | -10.9% | |
| 8 | THE LIGHT OF GRACE | 13.7% | 0.6% | -13.1% | |
| 2 | KISS FOR MONEY | 11.7% | 3.6% | -8.1% | |
| 5 | BV MY DARLING EAGLE | 11.1% | 12.2% | +1.1% | |
| 4 | SEND ME FURRST | 10.8% | 0.4% | -10.4% | |
| 6 | HIS ROYAL MAJESTI | 9.6% | 39.9% | +30.3% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 6 HIS ROYAL MAJESTI 39.9% 3-1
- 1 REYNAS PRITTY BOY 30.2% 10-1
- 5 BV MY DARLING EAGLE 12.2% 2-1
- 6 HIS ROYAL MAJESTI 57.5% 3-1
- 1 REYNAS PRITTY BOY 55.9% 10-1
- 5 BV MY DARLING EAGLE 36.8% 2-1
- 1 REYNAS PRITTY BOY 72.3% 10-1
- 6 HIS ROYAL MAJESTI 69.6% 3-1
- 5 BV MY DARLING EAGLE 64.6% 2-1