DCENTRIES 9TH RPX MAY 1 STATE-BRED H23000 20000 0 BUN 350.00 FURLONGS DIRT QUARTER HORSE OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP CLAIMING 20000-ALL PURSE $23000 (09:36) (8 )
Field — 8 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 WYN OR LEWS SPEED LEADER | 94.7 | 7-2 | 27d | -2-2-- | 26.6% |
| 2 | 7 FAMOUS CASH EQUITY | 91.7 | 8-1 | 15d | -123-- | 14.5% |
| 3 | 5 DUANES GOLD WAGON | 89 | 12-1 | 21d | --132- | 6.0% |
| 4 | 2 BTD HEART OF GOLD | 87 | 5-2 | 27d | -12- | 28.5% |
| 5 | 8 STRAIT UP GONE | 86.3 | 5-1 | 21d | -3--12 | 19.4% |
| 6 | 6 GINGER G 123 | 84.7 | 6-1 | 33d | ---2-- | 0.6% |
| 7 | 3 RELENTLESSS LADY | 79 | 9-2 | 33d | -3--1- | 4.2% |
| 8 | 1 AMADEUSS | 78.7 | 10-1 | 12d | -13--- | 0.2% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 BTD HEART OF GOLD | 53.53% | 73.93% | 2.62 | 1 | 8 | 94.1 | #4 ▲ | — | |
| 2 | 4 WYN OR LEWS | 54.19% | 75.94% | 2.59 | 1 | 8 | 93.9 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 8 STRAIT UP GONE | 29.96% | 40.60% | 4.29 | 1 | 8 | 85.8 | #5 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 7 FAMOUS CASH EQUITY | 34.25% | 54.82% | 3.38 | 1 | 8 | 90.2 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 5 DUANES GOLD WAGON | 12.69% | 21.27% | 5.34 | 1 | 8 | 80.2 | #3 ≈ | ⚡ 602 | |
| 6 | 3 RELENTLESSS LADY | 12.03% | 24.82% | 4.62 | 1 | 8 | 84.5 | #7 ≈ | — | |
| 7 | 6 GINGER G 123 | 2.53% | 6.52% | 6.00 | 1 | 8 | 77.7 | #6 ≈ | — | |
| 8 | 1 AMADEUSS | 0.82% | 2.10% | 7.16 | 1 | 8 | 69.0 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 19 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 FAMOUS CASH EQUITY | 8-1 | 11.1% | 34.25% | 54.82% | 1.31x | — | |
| 2 | 4 WYN OR LEWS | 7-2 | 22.2% | 54.19% | 75.94% | 1.19x | — | |
| 3 | 8 STRAIT UP GONE | 5-1 | 16.7% | 29.96% | 40.60% | 1.16x | — | |
| 4 | 2 BTD HEART OF GOLD | 5-2 | 28.6% | 53.53% | 73.93% | 1.00x | — | |
| 5 | 5 DUANES GOLD WAGON LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 12-1 | 7.7% | 12.69% | 21.27% | 0.78x | ⚡ 602 | |
| 6 | 3 RELENTLESSS LADY | 9-2 | 18.2% | 12.03% | 24.82% | 0.23x | — | |
| 7 | 6 GINGER G 123 | 6-1 | 14.3% | 2.53% | 6.52% | 0.04x | — | |
| 8 | 1 AMADEUSS LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 0.82% | 2.10% | 0.02x | ⚡ 19 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | GINGER G 123 | 15.1% | 0.6% | -14.5% | |
| 5 | DUANES GOLD WAGON | 13.7% | 6.0% | -7.7% | |
| 1 | AMADEUSS | 12.3% | 0.2% | -12.1% | |
| 2 | BTD HEART OF GOLD | 12.0% | 28.5% | +16.5% | |
| 8 | STRAIT UP GONE | 12.0% | 19.4% | +7.4% | |
| 3 | RELENTLESSS LADY | 10.5% | 4.2% | -6.3% | |
| 7 | FAMOUS CASH EQUITY | 9.7% | 14.5% | +4.8% | |
| 4 | WYN OR LEWS | 9.5% | 26.6% | +17.1% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 2 BTD HEART OF GOLD 28.5% 5-2
- 4 WYN OR LEWS 26.6% 7-2
- 8 STRAIT UP GONE 19.4% 5-1
- 4 WYN OR LEWS 54.2% 7-2
- 2 BTD HEART OF GOLD 53.5% 5-2
- 7 FAMOUS CASH EQUITY 34.3% 8-1
- 4 WYN OR LEWS 75.9% 7-2
- 2 BTD HEART OF GOLD 73.9% 5-2
- 7 FAMOUS CASH EQUITY 54.8% 8-1