DSENTRIES 10TH RPX MAY 1 J22500 0 AON 330.00 FURLONGS DIRT QUARTER HORSE OPEN 2 YEAR OLDS MAIDEN PURSE $22500 (10:03) (10)
Field — 10 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 RELENTLESS HEROINE SPEED LEADER | 77 | 12-1 | 43d | - | 19.6% |
| 2 | 9 HES A DAYTRIPPER | 70 | 7-2 | 42d | 3 | 15.7% |
| 3 | 7 HEZ COWBOY KOOL | 66 | 9-2 | 28d | -- | 1.8% |
| 4 | 5 SUZES RELENTLESS | 63 | 8-1 | 29d | - | 2.8% |
| 5 | 8 PAYDAY JESS | 62 | 12-1 | 47d | - | 2.6% |
| 6 | 1 JV MISS CORITA | 56 | 20-1 | 42d | - | 2.3% |
| 7 | 2 LIIONESSS | — First starter | 5-2 | — | — | 32.2% |
| 8 | 4 TRIPLE SEIS | — First starter | 20-1 | — | — | 3.5% |
| 9 | 6 DEPUTY FERGUSEN | — First starter | 15-1 | — | — | 5.0% |
| 10 | 10 SASHAY DE CAPI | — First starter | 5-1 | — | — | 14.6% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 LIIONESSS | 49.46% | 60.90% | 3.49 | 1 | 10 | 79.5 | #7 ▲ | — | |
| 2 | 3 RELENTLESS HEROINE | 39.65% | 57.59% | 3.57 | 1 | 10 | 76.4 | #1 ≈ | ⚡ 1962 | |
| 3 | 9 HES A DAYTRIPPER | 34.61% | 51.62% | 3.87 | 1 | 10 | 74.2 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 10 SASHAY DE CAPI | 27.45% | 38.40% | 5.01 | 1 | 10 | 68.0 | #10 ▲ | — | |
| 5 | 6 DEPUTY FERGUSEN | 11.13% | 17.89% | 6.76 | 1 | 10 | 54.4 | #9 ▲ | ⚡ 501 | |
| 6 | 4 TRIPLE SEIS | 8.18% | 13.38% | 7.29 | 1 | 10 | 50.1 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 348 | |
| 7 | 5 SUZES RELENTLESS | 8.24% | 16.16% | 6.29 | 1 | 10 | 59.0 | #4 ▼ | — | |
| 8 | 8 PAYDAY JESS | 7.74% | 15.03% | 6.33 | 1 | 10 | 59.0 | #5 ▼ | ⚡ 255 | |
| 9 | 1 JV MISS CORITA | 7.00% | 14.16% | 6.51 | 1 | 10 | 57.7 | #6 ▼ | ⚡ 234 | |
| 10 | 7 HEZ COWBOY KOOL | 6.54% | 14.87% | 5.88 | 1 | 10 | 61.7 | #3 ▼ | — |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 RELENTLESS HEROINE LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 12-1 | 7.7% | 39.65% | 57.59% | 🔥 2.55x | ⚡ 1962 | |
| 2 | 2 LIIONESSS | 5-2 | 28.6% | 49.46% | 60.90% | 1.13x | — | |
| 3 | 10 SASHAY DE CAPI | 5-1 | 16.7% | 27.45% | 38.40% | 0.87x | — | |
| 4 | 6 DEPUTY FERGUSEN LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 11.13% | 17.89% | 0.80x | ⚡ 501 | |
| 5 | 4 TRIPLE SEIS LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 8.18% | 13.38% | 0.73x | ⚡ 348 | |
| 6 | 9 HES A DAYTRIPPER | 7-2 | 22.2% | 34.61% | 51.62% | 0.71x | — | |
| 7 | 1 JV MISS CORITA LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 7.00% | 14.16% | 0.49x | ⚡ 234 | |
| 8 | 8 PAYDAY JESS LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 7.74% | 15.03% | 0.33x | ⚡ 255 | |
| 9 | 5 SUZES RELENTLESS | 8-1 | 11.1% | 8.24% | 16.16% | 0.25x | — | |
| 10 | 7 HEZ COWBOY KOOL | 9-2 | 18.2% | 6.54% | 14.87% | 0.10x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LIIONESSS | 12.4% | 32.2% | +19.8% | |
| 5 | SUZES RELENTLESS | 12.4% | 2.8% | -9.6% | |
| 9 | HES A DAYTRIPPER | 12.1% | 15.7% | +3.6% | |
| 1 | JV MISS CORITA | 11.9% | 2.3% | -9.6% | |
| 10 | SASHAY DE CAPI | 11.3% | 14.6% | +3.3% | |
| 6 | DEPUTY FERGUSEN | 10.8% | 5.0% | -5.8% | |
| 7 | HEZ COWBOY KOOL | 8.1% | 1.8% | -6.3% | |
| 3 | RELENTLESS HEROINE | 7.8% | 19.6% | +11.8% | |
| 4 | TRIPLE SEIS | 7.4% | 3.5% | -3.9% | |
| 8 | PAYDAY JESS | 7.1% | 2.6% | -4.6% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 2 LIIONESSS 32.2% 5-2
- 3 RELENTLESS HEROINE 19.6% 12-1
- 9 HES A DAYTRIPPER 15.7% 7-2
- 2 LIIONESSS 49.5% 5-2
- 3 RELENTLESS HEROINE 39.7% 12-1
- 9 HES A DAYTRIPPER 34.6% 7-2
- 2 LIIONESSS 60.9% 5-2
- 3 RELENTLESS HEROINE 57.6% 12-1
- 9 HES A DAYTRIPPER 51.6% 7-2