DNENTRIES 4TH DED MAY 1 STATE-BRED I10000 0 AOC 330.00 FURLONGS DIRT QUARTER HORSE COLTS AND GELDINGS 2 YEAR OLDS TRIALS PURSE $10000 (06:00) (9 )
Field — 9 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 SKINNY BOY STONE SPEED LEADER | 89 | 7-2 | 55d | 2 | 16.6% |
| 2 | 3 PURPLE N GOLD BLOOD | 85.5 | 5-2 | 34d | -2 | 19.7% |
| 3 | 5 JUSTA KOOL COS | 78 | 12-1 | 54d | - | 3.1% |
| 4 | 2 JESS GOLD HEART | 67 | 20-1 | 48d | - | 1.7% |
| 5 | 1 DA BIG RED | — First starter | 9-2 | — | — | 19.6% |
| 6 | 4 OM COLD BLOOD | — First starter | 8-1 | — | — | 9.5% |
| 7 | 6 BBS FAST PRIZE | — First starter | 5-1 | — | — | 15.8% |
| 8 | 7 HEZA RARE OCCASION | — First starter | 12-1 | — | — | 6.5% |
| 9 | 9 MAGICAL DIFFERENCE | — First starter | 8-1 | — | — | 7.6% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 PURPLE N GOLD BLOOD | 49.76% | 75.64% | 2.69 | 1 | 8 | 94.3 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 1 DA BIG RED | 32.04% | 43.05% | 4.34 | 1 | 9 | 84.7 | #5 ▲ | — | |
| 3 | 8 SKINNY BOY STONE | 33.36% | 49.98% | 3.75 | 1 | 9 | 88.4 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 6 BBS FAST PRIZE | 27.38% | 37.45% | 4.67 | 1 | 9 | 81.7 | #7 ▲ | — | |
| 5 | 4 OM COLD BLOOD | 17.71% | 25.85% | 5.53 | 1 | 9 | 74.9 | #6 ≈ | — | |
| 6 | 9 MAGICAL DIFFERENCE | 15.09% | 23.26% | 5.71 | 1 | 9 | 73.1 | #9 ▲ | — | |
| 7 | 7 HEZA RARE OCCASION | 12.22% | 19.42% | 6.07 | 1 | 9 | 69.8 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 645 | |
| 8 | 5 JUSTA KOOL COS | 7.74% | 15.27% | 5.87 | 1 | 9 | 72.6 | #3 ▼ | ⚡ 305 | |
| 9 | 2 JESS GOLD HEART | 4.70% | 10.08% | 6.38 | 1 | 9 | 68.9 | #4 ▼ | ⚡ 169 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 DA BIG RED | 9-2 | 18.2% | 32.04% | 43.05% | 1.08x | — | |
| 2 | 6 BBS FAST PRIZE | 5-1 | 16.7% | 27.38% | 37.45% | 0.95x | — | |
| 3 | 4 OM COLD BLOOD | 8-1 | 11.1% | 17.71% | 25.85% | 0.86x | — | |
| 4 | 7 HEZA RARE OCCASION LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 12-1 | 7.7% | 12.22% | 19.42% | 0.84x | ⚡ 645 | |
| 5 | 8 SKINNY BOY STONE | 7-2 | 22.2% | 33.36% | 49.98% | 0.75x | — | |
| 6 | 3 PURPLE N GOLD BLOOD | 5-2 | 28.6% | 49.76% | 75.64% | 0.69x | — | |
| 7 | 9 MAGICAL DIFFERENCE | 8-1 | 11.1% | 15.09% | 23.26% | 0.68x | — | |
| 8 | 5 JUSTA KOOL COS LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 7.74% | 15.27% | 0.40x | ⚡ 305 | |
| 9 | 2 JESS GOLD HEART LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 4.70% | 10.08% | 0.35x | ⚡ 169 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | JUSTA KOOL COS | 13.7% | 3.1% | -10.6% | |
| 7 | HEZA RARE OCCASION | 13.6% | 6.5% | -7.1% | |
| 2 | JESS GOLD HEART | 13.6% | 1.7% | -11.9% | |
| 9 | MAGICAL DIFFERENCE | 13.0% | 7.6% | -5.4% | |
| 8 | SKINNY BOY STONE | 12.5% | 16.6% | +4.1% | |
| 6 | BBS FAST PRIZE | 12.3% | 15.8% | +3.5% | |
| 4 | OM COLD BLOOD | 10.4% | 9.5% | -0.9% | |
| 1 | DA BIG RED | 10.1% | 19.6% | +9.5% | |
| 3 | PURPLE N GOLD BLOOD | 9.0% | 19.7% | +10.6% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 3 PURPLE N GOLD BLOOD 19.7% 5-2
- 1 DA BIG RED 19.6% 9-2
- 8 SKINNY BOY STONE 16.6% 7-2
- 3 PURPLE N GOLD BLOOD 49.8% 5-2
- 8 SKINNY BOY STONE 33.4% 7-2
- 1 DA BIG RED 32.0% 9-2
- 3 PURPLE N GOLD BLOOD 75.6% 5-2
- 8 SKINNY BOY STONE 50.0% 7-2
- 1 DA BIG RED 43.1% 9-2