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DNENTRIES 8TH DED MAY 1 STATE-BRED H10000 0 AOC 330.00 FURLONGS DIRT QUARTER HORSE COLTS AND GELDINGS 2 YEAR OLDS TRIALS PURSE $10000 (07:40) (8 )

🏟 Delta Downs 📅 2026-05-01 📏 330Y Dirt Trial 💰 $10,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 8 Runners

1
DRINK UP MISTER
5.5%
lbs 124
ML 15-1
J GARCIA JUAN FRANCISCO JR
T ELLIS TREY
By MR PILOTO Out of DRINK UP EDNA
🥇 5.5% 🥈 12.8% 🥉 20.7% Avg 5.6 ⚡ 554 longshot wins
2
BLUES LEAVINGYOU
10.8%
lbs 124
ML 8-1
J VITAL HUMBERTO
T SANCHEZ JOSE LUIS III
By RC ME LEAVING YOU Out of JAZZING TO THE BLUES
🥇 10.8% 🥈 21.3% 🥉 32.7% Avg 4.8
3
ZACTEX IVORY
15.4%
lbs 124
ML 6-1
J EDISON RANDY JR
T CLARK ALEX P
By IVORY JAMES Out of JESS PRETTY IN BLACK
🥇 15.4% 🥈 28.9% 🥉 41.0% Avg 4.3
4
KRUSH
18.7%
lbs 124
ML 4-1
J RODRIGUEZ LEONARDO
T GARCIA JUAN C
By CARTERS CARTEL Out of MS PROVERBIAL
🥇 18.7% 🥈 34.3% 🥉 47.7% Avg 3.9
5
TRAINS A LEAVIN
5.0%
RPR 81
Form 3
Off 54d
lbs 124
ML 5-1
J HERNANDEZ RENE
T RHODES DUSTIN
By FREIGHTTRAIN B Out of MARCYSFASTDASH
🥇 5.0% 🥈 14.1% 🥉 26.8% Avg 4.9
6
THE JESS LOUISIANA
6.7%
lbs 124
ML 12-1
J CONSTANTIN LUCAS
T FLORES SALVADOR G
By THE LOUISIANA CARTEL Out of JESS KEEPNIT
🥇 6.7% 🥈 15.1% 🥉 24.5% Avg 5.3 ⚡ 669 longshot wins
7
THUNDERRRSTRUCK
22.9%
lbs 124
ML 7-2
J ESPINOSA PEDRO CHAVARRIA
T ROBERTS KENNETH
By IVORY JAMES Out of APOLLITICAL CRYSTAL
🥇 22.9% 🥈 39.3% 🥉 53.1% Avg 3.7
8
VIGILANTY
15.0%
RPR 88
Form 2
Off 55d
lbs 124
ML 5-2
J URIETA VICTOR MANUEL JR
T PONCE JOSUE
By FREIGHTTRAIN B Out of LETHAL CANDY
🥇 15.0% 🥈 34.3% 🥉 53.5% Avg 3.6

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 8 VIGILANTY SPEED LEADER 88 5-2 55d 2 15.0%
2 5 TRAINS A LEAVIN 81 5-1 54d 3 5.0%
3 1 DRINK UP MISTER — First starter 15-1 — — 5.5%
4 2 BLUES LEAVINGYOU — First starter 8-1 — — 10.8%
5 3 ZACTEX IVORY — First starter 6-1 — — 15.4%
6 4 KRUSH — First starter 4-1 — — 18.7%
7 6 THE JESS LOUISIANA — First starter 12-1 — — 6.7%
8 7 THUNDERRRSTRUCK — First starter 7-2 — — 22.9%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-18 20:01:27
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 7 THUNDERRRSTRUCK
22.91%
39.28% 53.09% 3.66 1 8 90.1 #8 ▲ —
2 4 KRUSH
18.70%
34.31% 47.74% 3.94 1 8 87.4 #6 ▲ —
3 3 ZACTEX IVORY
15.37%
28.85% 40.95% 4.30 1 8 84.3 #5 ≈ —
4 8 VIGILANTY
14.96%
34.32% 53.45% 3.56 1 8 90.0 #1 ▼ —
5 2 BLUES LEAVINGYOU
10.81%
21.29% 32.70% 4.78 1 8 79.4 #4 ≈ —
6 6 THE JESS LOUISIANA
6.69%
15.07% 24.54% 5.34 1 8 73.7 #7 ≈ ⚡ 669
7 1 DRINK UP MISTER
5.54%
12.78% 20.72% 5.57 1 8 71.7 #3 ▼ ⚡ 554
8 5 TRAINS A LEAVIN
5.02%
14.10% 26.81% 4.86 1 8 79.1 #2 ▼ —

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 3 ZACTEX IVORY 6-1 14.3%
15.37%
28.85% 40.95% 1.08x —
2 7 THUNDERRRSTRUCK 7-2 22.2%
22.91%
39.28% 53.09% 1.03x —
3 2 BLUES LEAVINGYOU 8-1 11.1%
10.81%
21.29% 32.70% 0.97x —
4 4 KRUSH 4-1 20%
18.70%
34.31% 47.74% 0.93x —
5 1 DRINK UP MISTER LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 15-1 6.3%
5.54%
12.78% 20.72% 0.89x ⚡ 554
6 6 THE JESS LOUISIANA LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
6.69%
15.07% 24.54% 0.87x ⚡ 669
7 8 VIGILANTY 5-2 28.6%
14.96%
34.32% 53.45% 0.52x —
8 5 TRAINS A LEAVIN 5-1 16.7%
5.02%
14.10% 26.81% 0.30x —

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 8 horses, ~12.5% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
4 KRUSH 14.7% 18.7% +4.0%
8 VIGILANTY 14.4% 15.0% +0.6%
5 TRAINS A LEAVIN 14.3% 5.0% -9.3%
6 THE JESS LOUISIANA 14.2% 6.7% -7.5%
2 BLUES LEAVINGYOU 13.6% 10.8% -2.8%
7 THUNDERRRSTRUCK 13.4% 22.9% +9.5%
1 DRINK UP MISTER 13.1% 5.5% -7.6%
3 ZACTEX IVORY 10.5% 15.4% +4.9%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 7 THUNDERRRSTRUCK 22.9% 7-2
  2. 4 KRUSH 18.7% 4-1
  3. 3 ZACTEX IVORY 15.4% 6-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 7 THUNDERRRSTRUCK 39.3% 7-2
  2. 8 VIGILANTY 34.3% 5-2
  3. 4 KRUSH 34.3% 4-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 8 VIGILANTY 53.5% 5-2
  2. 7 THUNDERRRSTRUCK 53.1% 7-2
  3. 4 KRUSH 47.7% 4-1
📋 Exacta Box
7-4-3
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
7 THUNDERRRSTRUCK 4 KRUSH 3 ZACTEX IVORY
🎲 Trifecta
7-4-3
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
7 → 4-3-8
Key THUNDERRRSTRUCK to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
7-4-3-8
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
7/4 / 7/4 / 3/8/2 / 3/8/2
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 DRINK UP MISTER
2 BLUES LEAVINGYOU
3 ZACTEX IVORY
4 KRUSH
5 TRAINS A LEAVIN
6 THE JESS LOUISIANA
7 THUNDERRRSTRUCK
8 VIGILANTY