DNENTRIES 12TH DED MAY 1 STATE-BRED H10000 0 AOC 330.00 FURLONGS DIRT QUARTER HORSE COLTS AND GELDINGS 2 YEAR OLDS TRIALS PURSE $10000 (09:20) (8 )
Field — 8 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 EFFORTS BLOOD SPEED LEADER | 94 | 2-1 | 34d | 12 | 27.8% |
| 2 | 1 JESS LOUISIANA BEE | 91.5 | 3-1 | 34d | -- | 5.9% |
| 3 | 8 TF JES DASHIN | 82 | 9-2 | 54d | 1 | 12.6% |
| 4 | 2 FLY GUITO FLY | — First starter | 8-1 | — | — | 13.3% |
| 5 | 3 LOUISIANA RELENTLESS | — First starter | 15-1 | — | — | 7.2% |
| 6 | 4 OPEN ME AN RC | — First starter | 6-1 | — | — | 18.0% |
| 7 | 6 LM KING IVORY | — First starter | 10-1 | — | — | 10.1% |
| 8 | 7 SAN LORENZO GAME | — First starter | 15-1 | — | — | 5.1% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 EFFORTS BLOOD | 61.66% | 84.96% | 2.32 | 1 | 8 | 102.6 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 4 OPEN ME AN RC | 28.17% | 37.74% | 4.39 | 1 | 8 | 89.2 | #6 ▲ | — | |
| 3 | 2 FLY GUITO FLY | 21.27% | 29.71% | 4.87 | 1 | 8 | 84.4 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 8 TF JES DASHIN | 24.25% | 36.74% | 4.20 | 1 | 8 | 90.7 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 6 LM KING IVORY | 17.50% | 24.92% | 5.18 | 1 | 8 | 80.8 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 1009 | |
| 6 | 3 LOUISIANA RELENTLESS | 13.12% | 18.78% | 5.63 | 1 | 8 | 76.8 | #5 ≈ | ⚡ 719 | |
| 7 | 1 JESS LOUISIANA BEE | 24.26% | 52.80% | 3.46 | 1 | 8 | 96.1 | #2 ▼ | — | |
| 8 | 7 SAN LORENZO GAME | 9.77% | 14.35% | 5.96 | 1 | 8 | 73.7 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 507 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 OPEN ME AN RC | 6-1 | 14.3% | 28.17% | 37.74% | 1.26x | — | |
| 2 | 2 FLY GUITO FLY | 8-1 | 11.1% | 21.27% | 29.71% | 1.20x | — | |
| 3 | 3 LOUISIANA RELENTLESS LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 15-1 | 6.3% | 13.12% | 18.78% | 1.15x | ⚡ 719 | |
| 4 | 6 LM KING IVORY LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 17.50% | 24.92% | 1.11x | ⚡ 1009 | |
| 5 | 5 EFFORTS BLOOD | 2-1 | 33.3% | 61.66% | 84.96% | 0.83x | — | |
| 6 | 7 SAN LORENZO GAME LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 9.77% | 14.35% | 0.81x | ⚡ 507 | |
| 7 | 8 TF JES DASHIN | 9-2 | 18.2% | 24.25% | 36.74% | 0.69x | — | |
| 8 | 1 JESS LOUISIANA BEE | 3-1 | 25% | 24.26% | 52.80% | 0.24x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | LM KING IVORY | 15.2% | 10.1% | -5.1% | |
| 8 | TF JES DASHIN | 15.0% | 12.6% | -2.4% | |
| 5 | EFFORTS BLOOD | 14.6% | 27.8% | +13.2% | |
| 4 | OPEN ME AN RC | 13.9% | 18.0% | +4.1% | |
| 1 | JESS LOUISIANA BEE | 13.3% | 5.9% | -7.4% | |
| 7 | SAN LORENZO GAME | 11.7% | 5.1% | -6.6% | |
| 3 | LOUISIANA RELENTLESS | 11.4% | 7.2% | -4.2% | |
| 2 | FLY GUITO FLY | 10.1% | 13.3% | +3.2% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 5 EFFORTS BLOOD 27.8% 2-1
- 4 OPEN ME AN RC 18.0% 6-1
- 2 FLY GUITO FLY 13.3% 8-1
- 5 EFFORTS BLOOD 61.7% 2-1
- 4 OPEN ME AN RC 28.2% 6-1
- 1 JESS LOUISIANA BEE 24.3% 3-1
- 5 EFFORTS BLOOD 85.0% 2-1
- 1 JESS LOUISIANA BEE 52.8% 3-1
- 4 OPEN ME AN RC 37.7% 6-1