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DAENTRIES 2ND LRL MAY 16 6F M58000 0 BUN 6 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING PURSE $58000 (11:05) (13)

🏟 Laurel Park 📅 2026-05-16 📏 6F Dirt OClm 40000n2x 💰 $58,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 13 Runners

1
ALL THE HARDWAYS
1.2%
RPR 91
Form 33--1132-2
Off 35d
lbs 123
ML 30-1
J LOPEZ PASCACIO
T ALLEN A FERRIS III
By PAYNTER Out of SPRING RUN
🥇 1.2% 🥈 6.2% 🥉 20.9% Avg 4.9 ⚡ 24 longshot wins
2
WICKEDDIVINE SCRATCHED
RPR 94
Form 112-2--313
Off 34d
lbs 126
ML 6-1
J BARBOSA JEIRON
T COX KENNETH M
By DIVINING ROD Out of E DUBAI'S HUMOR
3
CALL ME ANDY
1.5%
RPR 88
Form 32--21-2--
Off 304d
lbs 118
ML 6-5
J HAZLEWOOD YEDSIT
T NESS JAMIE
By MIDSHIPMAN Out of DI'S DELIGHT
🥇 1.5% 🥈 5.9% 🥉 17.3% Avg 5.0
4
FREEZE THE FIRE
36.5%
RPR 94
Form -1-21111--
Off 22d
lbs 126
ML 10-1
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T SALZMAN JOHN E JR
By FRIESAN FIRE Out of SCENARIO ANALYSIS
🥇 36.5% 🥈 71.7% 🥉 88.9% Avg 2.1 ⚡ 730 longshot wins
5
SUREMEANTTOOBE SCRATCHED
RPR 91
Form 3-11---122
Off 35d
lbs 123
ML 12-1
J SANCHEZ MYCHEL J
T TROMBETTA MICHAEL J
By COMPLEXITY Out of SUREMEANTTO
6
RADICAL RIGHT SCRATCHED
RPR 93
Form 233-3---22
Off 35d
lbs 123
ML 12-1
J MENA RAUL E
T GORHAM MICHAEL E
By FIRST SAMURAI Out of EMILY
7
BAND CAMP
4.8%
RPR 96
Form 3122-11113
Off 310d
lbs 123
ML 12-1
J TOLEDO JEVIAN
T EUBANKS DANIEL G
By BANDBOX Out of LOOKIN AT ROYALTY
🥇 4.8% 🥈 20.3% 🥉 47.5% Avg 3.8 ⚡ 95 longshot wins
8
DEPOSITION
0.0%
RPR 90
Form --3-233---
Off 38d
lbs 123
ML 30-1
J BRICENO JEAN GREGOR
T ST LEWIS URIAH
By CONSTITUTION Out of MANDRELL
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.1% 🥉 1.7% Avg 7.0
9
UNCLE CAT
11.1%
RPR 91
Form 2312--231-
Off 57d
lbs 118
ML 15-1
J VARGAS JOSE E
T SINGH SOMRAJ
By NYQUIST Out of DANCE THEWAYYOUARE
🥇 11.1% 🥈 18.7% 🥉 27.5% Avg 5.9 ⚡ 221 longshot wins
10
BLUE KINGDOM
44.7%
RPR 100
Form 13222-1-21
Off 15d
lbs 121
ML 6-5
J HAZLEWOOD YEDSIT
T NESS JAMIE
By FIRST MONDAYS Out of GRACEFUL GINGER
🥇 44.7% 🥈 75.2% 🥉 89.8% Avg 2.0
11
DEAN DELIVERS
0.4%
RPR 89
Form -----3-3-3
Off 34d
lbs 123
ML 10-1
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T BAILES W ROBERT
By CAJUN BREEZE Out of SLICK AND TRUE
🥇 0.4% 🥈 2.1% 🥉 6.5% Avg 5.8 ⚡ 7 longshot wins
12
MAGIC MULE
0.0%
RPR 80
Form ----1---2-
Off 35d
lbs 123
ML 30-1
J BURNHAM MATILDA
T HOHLBEIN KERRY
By DISTORTED HUMOR Out of CONFLATE
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.0% 🥉 0.1% Avg 8.5
13
GRAND OPENING SCRATCHED
RPR 92
Form -121-1-213
Off 203d
lbs 123
ML 8-1
J LOPEZ CARLOS EDUARDO
T BAILES W ROBERT
By UNION JACKSON Out of RIBBON CUTTER

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 10 BLUE KINGDOM SPEED LEADER 100 6-5 15d 2-1-21 44.7%
2 7 BAND CAMP 96.7 12-1 310d -11113 4.8%
3 4 FREEZE THE FIRE 94.7 10-1 22d 1111-- 36.5%
4 9 UNCLE CAT 91.3 15-1 57d --231- 11.1%
5 1 ALL THE HARDWAYS 91 30-1 35d 1132-2 1.2%
6 8 DEPOSITION 90 30-1 38d 233--- 0.0%
7 11 DEAN DELIVERS 89.7 10-1 34d -3-3-3 0.4%
8 3 CALL ME ANDY 88.7 6-5 304d 21-2-- 1.5%
9 12 MAGIC MULE 80.3 30-1 35d 1---2- 0.0%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

2,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-21 16:53:35
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 10 BLUE KINGDOM
44.70%
75.15% 89.75% 1.97 1 8 110.8 #1 ≈ —
2 4 FREEZE THE FIRE
36.50%
71.65% 88.90% 2.09 1 7 109.3 #3 ≈ ⚡ 730
3 9 UNCLE CAT
11.05%
18.70% 27.50% 5.90 1 9 88.3 #4 ≈ ⚡ 221
4 7 BAND CAMP
4.75%
20.30% 47.45% 3.78 1 9 100.3 #2 ≈ ⚡ 95
5 3 CALL ME ANDY
1.45%
5.90% 17.30% 4.98 1 9 95.0 #8 ▲ —
6 1 ALL THE HARDWAYS
1.20%
6.15% 20.90% 4.90 1 9 95.3 #5 ≈ ⚡ 24
7 11 DEAN DELIVERS
0.35%
2.05% 6.50% 5.83 1 9 91.3 #7 ≈ ⚡ 7
8 8 DEPOSITION
0.00%
0.10% 1.65% 7.05 2 9 85.0 #6 ≈ —
9 12 MAGIC MULE
0.00%
0.00% 0.05% 8.52 3 9 75.6 #9 ≈ —

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 4 FREEZE THE FIRE LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 10-1 9.1%
36.50%
71.65% 88.90% 🔥 4.02x ⚡ 730
2 9 UNCLE CAT LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
11.05%
18.70% 27.50% ✅ 1.77x ⚡ 221
3 10 BLUE KINGDOM 6-5 45.5%
44.70%
75.15% 89.75% 0.98x —
4 7 BAND CAMP LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
4.75%
20.30% 47.45% 0.62x ⚡ 95
5 1 ALL THE HARDWAYS LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
1.20%
6.15% 20.90% 0.37x ⚡ 24
6 11 DEAN DELIVERS LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
0.35%
2.05% 6.50% 0.04x ⚡ 7
7 3 CALL ME ANDY 6-5 45.5%
1.45%
5.90% 17.30% 0.03x —
8 8 DEPOSITION LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.00%
0.10% 1.65% 0.00x —
9 12 MAGIC MULE LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.00%
0.00% 0.05% 0.00x —

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 9 horses, ~11.1% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
10 BLUE KINGDOM 12.4% 44.7% +32.3%
12 MAGIC MULE 12.3% 0.0% -12.3%
11 DEAN DELIVERS 11.9% 0.4% -11.6%
8 DEPOSITION 11.7% 0.0% -11.7%
7 BAND CAMP 11.3% 4.8% -6.5%
9 UNCLE CAT 11.1% 11.1% 0.0%
1 ALL THE HARDWAYS 9.9% 1.2% -8.7%
3 CALL ME ANDY 9.5% 1.5% -8.1%
4 FREEZE THE FIRE 8.8% 36.5% +27.7%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 2,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 10 BLUE KINGDOM 44.7% 6-5
  2. 4 FREEZE THE FIRE 36.5% 10-1
  3. 9 UNCLE CAT 11.1% 15-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 10 BLUE KINGDOM 75.2% 6-5
  2. 4 FREEZE THE FIRE 71.7% 10-1
  3. 7 BAND CAMP 20.3% 12-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 10 BLUE KINGDOM 89.8% 6-5
  2. 4 FREEZE THE FIRE 88.9% 10-1
  3. 7 BAND CAMP 47.5% 12-1
📋 Exacta Box
10-4-9
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
10 BLUE KINGDOM 4 FREEZE THE FIRE 9 UNCLE CAT
🎲 Trifecta
10-4-9
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
10 → 4-9-7
Key BLUE KINGDOM to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
10-4-9-7
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
10/4 / 10/4 / 9/7/3 / 9/7/3
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

🏆 Actual Results

#ProgHorse Finish Margin Odds Sim Predicted
1 3 CALL ME ANDY — — Sim #5 (1.5% win)
2 4 FREEZE THE FIRE — — Sim #2 (36.5% win)
3 9 UNCLE CAT — — Sim #3 (11.1% win)
4 1 ALL THE HARDWAYS — — Sim #6 (1.2% win)
5 7 BAND CAMP — — Sim #4 (4.8% win)
6 8 DEPOSITION — — Sim #8 (0.0% win)
7 10 BLUE KINGDOM — — Sim #1 (44.7% win)
8 11 DEAN DELIVERS — — Sim #7 (0.4% win)
9 12 MAGIC MULE — — Sim #9 (0.0% win)

Official winner: Wickeddivine

✏️ Edit Results
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
3 CALL ME ANDY
4 FREEZE THE FIRE
9 UNCLE CAT
1 ALL THE HARDWAYS
7 BAND CAMP
8 DEPOSITION
10 BLUE KINGDOM
11 DEAN DELIVERS
12 MAGIC MULE
2 WICKEDDIVINE SCR Scratched
5 SUREMEANTTOOBE SCR Scratched
6 RADICAL RIGHT SCR Scratched
13 GRAND OPENING SCR Scratched