TSENTRIES 3RD LRL MAY 16 8F K52000 0 BUN 1 MILE TURF THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT PURSE $52000 (11:41) (11)
Field — 11 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 MASTER SOMMELIER SPEED LEADER | 81.3 | 4-1 | 24d | 231- | 42.0% |
| 2 | 1 LIMO | 80.3 | 5-2 | 65d | -111-- | 36.2% |
| 3 | 6 MUNNY PROBLEM | 74.5 | 9-2 | 34d | -- | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2 MARGIE'S LAST | 74 | 30-1 | 22d | 3-2-- | 0.1% |
| 5 | 3 NAABAAHII | 70 | 7-2 | 63d | - | 5.4% |
| 6 | 8 ZENCAT | 69.7 | 30-1 | 34d | 31-1- | 0.0% |
| 7 | 7 PENDAR | 62.7 | 30-1 | 162d | 2-- | 0.0% |
| 8 | 11 CHATBOT | 62.7 | 30-1 | 34d | --- | 0.0% |
| 9 | 10 DRIVE BY JOHNNY | 27 | 12-1 | 193d | - | 0.0% |
| 10 | 5 SCANNER | — First starter | 5-1 | — | — | 15.3% |
| 11 | 9 OCEAN SOUND | — First starter | 30-1 | — | — | 1.0% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 MASTER SOMMELIER | 82.50% | 97.80% | 1.78 | 1 | 6 | 93.7 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 1 LIMO | 79.20% | 96.95% | 1.88 | 1 | 5 | 92.7 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 5 SCANNER | 22.25% | 38.05% | 5.12 | 1 | 11 | 72.9 | #10 ▲ | — | |
| 4 | 3 NAABAAHII | 12.55% | 30.30% | 5.19 | 1 | 11 | 71.8 | #5 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 9 OCEAN SOUND | 1.95% | 4.85% | 8.68 | 1 | 11 | 45.0 | #11 ▲ | ⚡ 20 | |
| 6 | 2 MARGIE'S LAST | 1.05% | 14.50% | 5.10 | 1 | 10 | 71.7 | #4 ≈ | ⚡ 2 | |
| 7 | 6 MUNNY PROBLEM | 0.25% | 9.85% | 5.32 | 1 | 10 | 70.3 | #3 ▼ | — | |
| 8 | 7 PENDAR | 0.15% | 3.30% | 7.22 | 2 | 11 | 61.1 | #7 ≈ | — | |
| 9 | 8 ZENCAT | 0.10% | 4.35% | 5.98 | 2 | 10 | 67.6 | #6 ▼ | — | |
| 10 | 10 DRIVE BY JOHNNY | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.86 | 6 | 11 | 13.2 | #9 ≈ | — | |
| 11 | 11 CHATBOT | 0.00% | 0.05% | 8.88 | 3 | 11 | 51.2 | #8 ▼ | — |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 MASTER SOMMELIER | 4-1 | 20% | 82.50% | 97.80% | 🔥 2.10x | — | |
| 2 | 1 LIMO | 5-2 | 28.6% | 79.20% | 96.95% | 1.27x | — | |
| 3 | 5 SCANNER | 5-1 | 16.7% | 22.25% | 38.05% | 0.92x | — | |
| 4 | 9 OCEAN SOUND LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 30-1 | 3.2% | 1.95% | 4.85% | 0.31x | ⚡ 20 | |
| 5 | 3 NAABAAHII | 7-2 | 22.2% | 12.55% | 30.30% | 0.24x | — | |
| 6 | 2 MARGIE'S LAST LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 1.05% | 14.50% | 0.03x | ⚡ 2 | |
| 7 | 6 MUNNY PROBLEM | 9-2 | 18.2% | 0.25% | 9.85% | 0.00x | — | |
| 8 | 7 PENDAR LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 0.15% | 3.30% | 0.00x | — | |
| 9 | 8 ZENCAT LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 0.10% | 4.35% | 0.00x | — | |
| 10 | 10 DRIVE BY JOHNNY LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00x | — | |
| 11 | 11 CHATBOT LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 0.00% | 0.05% | 0.00x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NAABAAHII | 10.1% | 5.4% | -4.7% | |
| 8 | ZENCAT | 10.1% | 0.0% | -10.1% | |
| 7 | PENDAR | 9.9% | 0.0% | -9.9% | |
| 4 | MASTER SOMMELIER | 9.4% | 42.0% | +32.6% | |
| 5 | SCANNER | 9.2% | 15.3% | +6.1% | |
| 9 | OCEAN SOUND | 8.4% | 1.0% | -7.4% | |
| 6 | MUNNY PROBLEM | 8.1% | 0.1% | -8.0% | |
| 2 | MARGIE'S LAST | 7.4% | 0.1% | -7.3% | |
| 10 | DRIVE BY JOHNNY | 7.3% | 0.0% | -7.3% | |
| 1 | LIMO | 7.1% | 36.2% | +29.1% | |
| 11 | CHATBOT | 6.3% | 0.0% | -6.3% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 4 MASTER SOMMELIER 42.0% 4-1
- 1 LIMO 36.2% 5-2
- 5 SCANNER 15.3% 5-1
- 4 MASTER SOMMELIER 82.5% 4-1
- 1 LIMO 79.2% 5-2
- 5 SCANNER 22.3% 5-1
- 4 MASTER SOMMELIER 97.8% 4-1
- 1 LIMO 97.0% 5-2
- 5 SCANNER 38.1% 5-1
🏆 Actual Results
| # | Prog | Horse | Finish | Margin | Odds | Sim Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LIMO | — | — | Sim #2 (36.2% win) | |
| 2 | 3 | NAABAAHII | — | — | Sim #4 (5.4% win) | |
| 3 | 4 | MASTER SOMMELIER | — | — | Sim #1 (42.0% win) | |
| 4 | 7 | PENDAR | — | — | Sim #8 (0.0% win) | |
| 5 | 2 | MARGIE'S LAST | — | — | Sim #6 (0.1% win) | |
| 6 | 5 | SCANNER | — | — | Sim #3 (15.3% win) | |
| 7 | 10 | DRIVE BY JOHNNY | — | — | Sim #10 (0.0% win) | |
| 8 | 6 | MUNNY PROBLEM | — | — | Sim #7 (0.1% win) | |
| 9 | 8 | ZENCAT | — | — | Sim #9 (0.0% win) | |
| 10 | 11 | CHATBOT | — | — | Sim #11 (0.0% win) | |
| 11 | 9 | OCEAN SOUND | — | — | Sim #5 (1.0% win) |
Official winner: LIMO