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TAENTRIES 5TH LRL MAY 16 8F O54000 0 BUM 1 MILE TURF THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP ALLOWANCE PURSE $54000 (12:51) (15)

🏟 Laurel Park 📅 2026-05-16 📏 1M Turf Alw 54000n1x 💰 $54,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 15 Runners

1
NICK'S NOTION
1.1%
RPR 77
Form -1--2---3-
Off 20d
lbs 126
ML 12-1
J BARBOSA JEIRON
T BAILES W ROBERT
By GREAT NOTION Out of IN BELLA'S HONOR
🥇 1.1% 🥈 4.0% 🥉 10.3% Avg 7.0 ⚡ 22 longshot wins
2
DON'T FOOL WITH ME
0.9%
RPR 82
Form ---13-2-1-
Off 29d
lbs 118
ML 30-1
J VARGAS JOSE E
T SHUMAN MARK
By KHOZAN Out of ABOUT A DREAM
🥇 0.9% 🥈 3.3% 🥉 7.3% Avg 7.5 ⚡ 18 longshot wins
3
I LOVE GIRAFFES
24.7%
RPR 79
Form -1
Off 55d
lbs 115
ML 6-1
J LOPEZ PASCACIO
T SUMMERS CHAD
By CHARLATAN Out of BROCKOVICH
🥇 24.7% 🥈 59.0% 🥉 81.2% Avg 2.5
4
SASSARI
15.7%
RPR 78
Form 1
Off 34d
lbs 123
ML 5-2
J SANCHEZ MYCHEL J
T MOTION H GRAHAM
By QUALITY ROAD Out of CHERRY LODGE
🥇 15.7% 🥈 24.4% 🥉 33.3% Avg 6.4
5
SERENITY SONG
0.6%
RPR 78
Form 12
Off 50d
lbs 115
ML 10-1
J SAEZ LUIS
T RUSSELL BRITTANY T
By VEKOMA Out of LUNAR LULLABY
🥇 0.6% 🥈 2.2% 🥉 6.3% Avg 6.9 ⚡ 12 longshot wins
6
SYNERGISM
41.9%
RPR 85
Form -11--131-1
Off 22d
lbs 118
ML 15-1
J HAZLEWOOD YEDSIT
T NESS JAMIE
By FROSTED Out of SYNERGY BETWEEN US
🥇 41.9% 🥈 68.3% 🥉 83.7% Avg 2.2 ⚡ 837 longshot wins
7
MAMBO QUEEN
4.9%
RPR 80
Form -1-1--3122
Off 28d
lbs 123
ML 5-1
J RUSSELL SHELDON
T RUSSELL BRITTANY T
By MENDELSSOHN Out of PAINTER'S MUSE
🥇 4.9% 🥈 16.4% 🥉 36.5% Avg 4.4
8
SO DARN PRETTY
1.1%
RPR 75
Form -111--
Off 195d
lbs 123
ML 12-1
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T RUSSELL BRITTANY T
By TOO DARN HOT Out of ZONDAQ
🥇 1.1% 🥈 2.4% 🥉 4.7% Avg 10.1 ⚡ 21 longshot wins
9
TIDEOFTIME
0.7%
RPR 81
Form -23--
Off 37d
lbs 115
ML 10-1
J VELAZQUEZ J R
T MATZ MICHAEL R
By MENDELSSOHN Out of TIME AND MOTION
🥇 0.7% 🥈 3.0% 🥉 7.0% Avg 7.7 ⚡ 14 longshot wins
10
BUZZAWAY
0.0%
RPR 79
Form ----------
Off 182d
lbs 123
ML 15-1
J LOPEZ CARLOS EDUARDO
T BAILES W ROBERT
By ALDRIN Out of BLAZEAWAY
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.0% 🥉 0.0% Avg 12.8
11
DETERMIND PRINCESS
0.1%
RPR 78
Form 2---3--3--
Off 20d
lbs 123
ML 30-1
J RUIZ JORGE
T MERRYMAN ELIZABETH M
By GHOSTZAPPER Out of BOHEMIAN QUEEN
🥇 0.1% 🥈 0.1% 🥉 0.1% Avg 10.7 ⚡ 1 longshot wins
12
SHARMIN
7.3%
RPR 83
Form 1-111-2-3-
Off 28d
lbs 123
ML 12-1
J ROCCO J S JR
T MCMAHON HUGH I
By MOSLER Out of CASABLANCA LILY
🥇 7.3% 🥈 13.8% 🥉 22.2% Avg 7.5 ⚡ 145 longshot wins
13
CHILLY GIRL
1.4%
RPR 80
Form -1-23-3-
Off 27d
lbs 116
ML 30-1
J REA HUNTER
T MAGEE KIERON
By FROSTED Out of JUDY LEGEND
🥇 1.4% 🥈 3.3% 🥉 7.3% Avg 9.0 ⚡ 27 longshot wins
14
LOVELY LOOKIN LILI SCRATCHED
RPR 72
Form -2-23
Off 21d
lbs 123
ML 30-1
J TOLEDO JEVIAN
T EUBANKS DANIEL G
By HONOR CODE Out of LILI'S SONG
15
DEVASTATING
0.0%
RPR 80
Form 23--12--22
Off 14d
lbs 123
ML 10-1
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T BAILES W ROBERT
By VOLATILE Out of RIBOLETTI
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.1% 🥉 0.3% Avg 10.4

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 6 SYNERGISM SPEED LEADER 85.3 15-1 22d -131-1 41.9%
2 12 SHARMIN 83.7 12-1 28d 1-2-3- 7.3%
3 2 DON'T FOOL WITH ME 82.7 30-1 29d 3-2-1- 0.9%
4 9 TIDEOFTIME 81 10-1 37d -23-- 0.7%
5 7 MAMBO QUEEN 80.3 5-1 28d --3122 4.9%
6 13 CHILLY GIRL 80.3 30-1 27d -23-3- 1.4%
7 15 DEVASTATING 80 10-1 14d 12--22 0.0%
8 3 I LOVE GIRAFFES 79.5 6-1 55d -1 24.7%
9 10 BUZZAWAY 79 15-1 182d ------ 0.0%
10 11 DETERMIND PRINCESS 78.3 30-1 20d 3--3-- 0.1%
11 4 SASSARI 78 5-2 34d 1 15.7%
12 5 SERENITY SONG 78 10-1 50d 12 0.6%
13 1 NICK'S NOTION 77.7 12-1 20d 2---3- 1.1%
14 8 SO DARN PRETTY 75.7 12-1 195d -111-- 1.1%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

2,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-21 16:53:35
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 6 SYNERGISM
41.85%
68.30% 83.65% 2.22 1 10 101.9 #1 ≈ ⚡ 837
2 3 I LOVE GIRAFFES
24.65%
58.95% 81.15% 2.50 1 9 99.8 #8 ▲ —
3 4 SASSARI
15.65%
24.35% 33.30% 6.43 1 14 89.2 #11 ▲ —
4 12 SHARMIN
7.25%
13.75% 22.15% 7.46 1 14 85.3 #2 ≈ ⚡ 145
5 7 MAMBO QUEEN
4.85%
16.40% 36.45% 4.38 1 13 93.2 #5 ≈ —
6 13 CHILLY GIRL
1.35%
3.25% 7.30% 8.97 1 14 80.6 #6 ≈ ⚡ 27
7 1 NICK'S NOTION
1.10%
4.00% 10.30% 6.97 1 14 86.4 #13 ▲ ⚡ 22
8 8 SO DARN PRETTY
1.05%
2.40% 4.70% 10.09 1 14 77.1 #14 ▲ ⚡ 21
9 2 DON'T FOOL WITH ME
0.90%
3.30% 7.30% 7.52 1 14 85.0 #3 ▼ ⚡ 18
10 9 TIDEOFTIME
0.70%
3.00% 7.00% 7.69 1 14 84.5 #4 ▼ ⚡ 14
11 5 SERENITY SONG
0.60%
2.15% 6.30% 6.94 1 14 86.1 #12 ≈ ⚡ 12
12 11 DETERMIND PRINCESS
0.05%
0.10% 0.10% 10.69 1 14 76.7 #10 ≈ ⚡ 1
13 10 BUZZAWAY
0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 12.78 4 14 68.4 #9 ▼ —
14 15 DEVASTATING
0.00%
0.05% 0.30% 10.37 2 14 77.9 #7 ▼ —

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 6 SYNERGISM LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 15-1 6.3%
41.85%
68.30% 83.65% 🔥 6.70x ⚡ 837
2 3 I LOVE GIRAFFES 6-1 14.3%
24.65%
58.95% 81.15% ✅ 1.73x —
3 12 SHARMIN LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
7.25%
13.75% 22.15% 0.94x ⚡ 145
4 4 SASSARI 5-2 28.6%
15.65%
24.35% 33.30% 0.55x —
5 13 CHILLY GIRL LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
1.35%
3.25% 7.30% 0.42x ⚡ 27
6 7 MAMBO QUEEN 5-1 16.7%
4.85%
16.40% 36.45% 0.29x —
7 2 DON'T FOOL WITH ME LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.90%
3.30% 7.30% 0.28x ⚡ 18
8 1 NICK'S NOTION LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
1.10%
4.00% 10.30% 0.14x ⚡ 22
9 8 SO DARN PRETTY LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
1.05%
2.40% 4.70% 0.14x ⚡ 21
10 9 TIDEOFTIME LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
0.70%
3.00% 7.00% 0.08x ⚡ 14
11 5 SERENITY SONG LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
0.60%
2.15% 6.30% 0.07x ⚡ 12
12 11 DETERMIND PRINCESS LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.05%
0.10% 0.10% 0.02x ⚡ 1
13 10 BUZZAWAY LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00x —
14 15 DEVASTATING LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
0.00%
0.05% 0.30% 0.00x —

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 14 horses, ~7.1% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
6 SYNERGISM 8.9% 41.9% +33.0%
3 I LOVE GIRAFFES 8.2% 24.7% +16.5%
15 DEVASTATING 8.2% 0.0% -8.2%
5 SERENITY SONG 7.8% 0.6% -7.2%
8 SO DARN PRETTY 7.4% 1.1% -6.4%
12 SHARMIN 7.3% 7.3% 0.0%
13 CHILLY GIRL 7.1% 1.4% -5.8%
7 MAMBO QUEEN 7.0% 4.9% -2.2%
4 SASSARI 6.6% 15.7% +9.1%
10 BUZZAWAY 6.6% 0.0% -6.6%
2 DON'T FOOL WITH ME 5.6% 0.9% -4.7%
11 DETERMIND PRINCESS 5.4% 0.1% -5.4%
1 NICK'S NOTION 5.3% 1.1% -4.2%
9 TIDEOFTIME 4.3% 0.7% -3.6%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 2,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 6 SYNERGISM 41.9% 15-1
  2. 3 I LOVE GIRAFFES 24.7% 6-1
  3. 4 SASSARI 15.7% 5-2
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 6 SYNERGISM 68.3% 15-1
  2. 3 I LOVE GIRAFFES 59.0% 6-1
  3. 4 SASSARI 24.4% 5-2
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 6 SYNERGISM 83.7% 15-1
  2. 3 I LOVE GIRAFFES 81.2% 6-1
  3. 7 MAMBO QUEEN 36.5% 5-1
📋 Exacta Box
6-3-4
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
6 SYNERGISM 3 I LOVE GIRAFFES 4 SASSARI
🎲 Trifecta
6-3-4
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
6 → 3-4-12
Key SYNERGISM to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
6-3-4-12
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
6/3 / 6/3 / 4/12/7 / 4/12/7
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

🏆 Actual Results

#ProgHorse Finish Margin Odds Sim Predicted
1 3 I LOVE GIRAFFES — — Sim #2 (24.7% win)
2 7 MAMBO QUEEN — — Sim #5 (4.9% win)
3 6 SYNERGISM — — Sim #1 (41.9% win)
4 9 TIDEOFTIME — — Sim #10 (0.7% win)
5 1 NICK'S NOTION — — Sim #7 (1.1% win)
6 11 DETERMIND PRINCESS — — Sim #12 (0.1% win)
7 15 DEVASTATING — — Sim #14 (0.0% win)
8 4 SASSARI — — Sim #3 (15.7% win)
9 2 DON'T FOOL WITH ME — — Sim #9 (0.9% win)
10 12 SHARMIN — — Sim #4 (7.3% win)
11 10 BUZZAWAY — — Sim #13 (0.0% win)
12 13 CHILLY GIRL — — Sim #6 (1.4% win)
13 8 SO DARN PRETTY — — Sim #8 (1.1% win)
14 5 SERENITY SONG — — Sim #11 (0.6% win)

Official winner: I LOVE GIRAFFES

✏️ Edit Results
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
3 I LOVE GIRAFFES
7 MAMBO QUEEN
6 SYNERGISM
9 TIDEOFTIME
1 NICK'S NOTION
11 DETERMIND PRINCESS
15 DEVASTATING
4 SASSARI
2 DON'T FOOL WITH ME
12 SHARMIN
10 BUZZAWAY
13 CHILLY GIRL
8 SO DARN PRETTY
5 SERENITY SONG
14 LOVELY LOOKIN LILI SCR Scratched