Import DRF Add Race

← All Races

DNENTRIES 6TH LRL MAY 16 R8.5F G100000 0 BON 1 1/16 MILES DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS NONGRADED STAKE PURSE $100000 (01:28) (7 )

🏟 Laurel Park 📅 2026-05-16 📏 8½F Dirt SirBartonB100k 💰 $100,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 7 Runners

1
MINORINCONVENIENCE
30.0%
RPR 86
Form -211-
Off 42d
lbs 118
ML 12-1
J SANTANA RICARDO JR
T GREEN AMELIA J
By MENDELSSOHN Out of SKYLER'S LIL CUTIE
🥇 30.0% 🥈 53.0% 🥉 71.0% Avg 2.7 ⚡ 600 longshot wins
2
BIG CUDDLE
5.0%
RPR 84
Form 211
Off 28d
lbs 118
ML 9-2
J HAZLEWOOD YEDSIT
T CAPUANO GARY A
By GREAT NOTION Out of FRECHETTE
🥇 5.0% 🥈 19.2% 🥉 45.6% Avg 3.5
3
LET'S GO LANDO
39.6%
RPR 94
Form -332--2--3
Off 28d
lbs 118
ML 6-1
J LOPEZ PASCACIO
T CAPUANO GARY A
By GAME WINNER Out of STEADY N LOVE
🥇 39.6% 🥈 60.2% 🥉 74.4% Avg 2.5
4
FINAL STORY
23.7%
RPR 91
Form 12
Off 27d
lbs 118
ML 2-1
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T COX BRAD H
By CANDY RIDE Out of BOOK REVIEW
🥇 23.7% 🥈 59.6% 🥉 85.6% Avg 2.3
5
FALCON JET
1.3%
RPR 88
Form 132322
Off 42d
lbs 118
ML 10-1
J RUSSELL SHELDON
T RUSSELL BRITTANY T
By JUSTIFY Out of STARSHIP BONITA
🥇 1.3% 🥈 6.5% 🥉 19.4% Avg 4.4 ⚡ 25 longshot wins
6
PONT AVEN
0.5%
RPR 83
Form 1132--3
Off 48d
lbs 118
ML 30-1
J SANCHEZ MYCHEL J
T TROMBETTA MICHAEL J
By BLOFELD Out of SWEET TALKING GIRL
🥇 0.5% 🥈 1.7% 🥉 4.1% Avg 5.6 ⚡ 9 longshot wins
7
REAGAN'S HONOR SCRATCHED
RPR 86
Form 111-
Off 42d
lbs 118
ML 7-5
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T DEVAUX CHERIE
By HONOR A. P. Out of RUTILE

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 3 LET'S GO LANDO SPEED LEADER 94.3 6-1 28d --2--3 39.6%
2 4 FINAL STORY 91.5 2-1 27d 12 23.7%
3 5 FALCON JET 88.3 10-1 42d 132322 1.3%
4 1 MINORINCONVENIENCE 86.3 12-1 42d -211- 30.0%
5 2 BIG CUDDLE 84 9-2 28d 211 5.0%
6 6 PONT AVEN 83.3 30-1 48d 132--3 0.5%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

2,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-21 16:53:36
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 3 LET'S GO LANDO
39.60%
60.20% 74.35% 2.46 1 6 109.7 #1 ≈ —
2 1 MINORINCONVENIENCE
30.00%
52.95% 71.00% 2.68 1 6 107.3 #4 ≈ ⚡ 600
3 4 FINAL STORY
23.70%
59.55% 85.55% 2.35 1 6 108.1 #2 ≈ —
4 2 BIG CUDDLE
5.00%
19.20% 45.60% 3.54 1 6 101.8 #5 ≈ —
5 5 FALCON JET
1.25%
6.45% 19.40% 4.40 1 6 97.3 #3 ≈ ⚡ 25
6 6 PONT AVEN
0.45%
1.65% 4.10% 5.59 1 6 88.3 #6 ≈ ⚡ 9

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 1 MINORINCONVENIENCE LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 12-1 7.7%
30.00%
52.95% 71.00% 🔥 3.90x ⚡ 600
2 3 LET'S GO LANDO 6-1 14.3%
39.60%
60.20% 74.35% 🔥 2.77x —
3 4 FINAL STORY 2-1 33.3%
23.70%
59.55% 85.55% 0.71x —
4 2 BIG CUDDLE 9-2 18.2%
5.00%
19.20% 45.60% 0.27x —
5 5 FALCON JET LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
1.25%
6.45% 19.40% 0.14x ⚡ 25
6 6 PONT AVEN LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.45%
1.65% 4.10% 0.14x ⚡ 9

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 6 horses, ~16.7% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
2 BIG CUDDLE 19.7% 5.0% -14.7%
6 PONT AVEN 18.3% 0.5% -17.9%
4 FINAL STORY 15.7% 23.7% +8.0%
3 LET'S GO LANDO 15.3% 39.6% +24.3%
1 MINORINCONVENIENCE 14.3% 30.0% +15.7%
5 FALCON JET 14.1% 1.3% -12.9%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 2,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 3 LET'S GO LANDO 39.6% 6-1
  2. 1 MINORINCONVENIENCE 30.0% 12-1
  3. 4 FINAL STORY 23.7% 2-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 3 LET'S GO LANDO 60.2% 6-1
  2. 4 FINAL STORY 59.6% 2-1
  3. 1 MINORINCONVENIENCE 53.0% 12-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 4 FINAL STORY 85.6% 2-1
  2. 3 LET'S GO LANDO 74.4% 6-1
  3. 1 MINORINCONVENIENCE 71.0% 12-1
📋 Exacta Box
3-1-4
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
3 LET'S GO LANDO 1 MINORINCONVENIENCE 4 FINAL STORY
🎲 Trifecta
3-1-4
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
3 → 1-4-2
Key LET'S GO LANDO to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
3-1-4-2
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
3/1 / 3/1 / 4/2/5 / 4/2/5
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

🏆 Actual Results

#ProgHorse Finish Margin Odds Sim Predicted
1 2 BIG CUDDLE — — Sim #4 (5.0% win)
2 4 FINAL STORY — — Sim #3 (23.7% win)
3 1 MINORINCONVENIENCE — — Sim #2 (30.0% win)
4 3 LET'S GO LANDO — — Sim #1 (39.6% win)
5 6 PONT AVEN — — Sim #6 (0.5% win)
6 5 FALCON JET — — Sim #5 (1.3% win)

Official winner: BIG CUDDLE

✏️ Edit Results
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
2 BIG CUDDLE
4 FINAL STORY
1 MINORINCONVENIENCE
3 LET'S GO LANDO
6 PONT AVEN
5 FALCON JET
7 REAGAN'S HONOR SCR Scratched