DGENTRIES 8TH LRL MAY 16 6F I150000 3 BUN 6 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP GRADE 3 STAKE PURSE $150000 (02:48) (9 )
Field — 9 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 HAILEYSFIRSTNOTION SPEED LEADER | 101.7 | 7-2 | 15d | 22113- | 33.1% |
| 2 | 6 CELTIC CONTENDER | 100 | 9-2 | 49d | 321211 | 19.1% |
| 3 | 2 FASTER GATOR | 97.3 | 9-2 | 173d | 1--211 | 11.6% |
| 4 | 8 SLAM NOTION | 97.3 | 5-1 | 91d | -1-121 | 25.4% |
| 5 | 3 FAUST | 95.7 | 8-1 | 29d | -3-33- | 10.6% |
| 6 | 9 S S SINATRA | 94 | 30-1 | 49d | ------ | 0.0% |
| 7 | 1 BRING THE SMOKE | 88.7 | 10-1 | 34d | 213 | 0.3% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 HAILEYSFIRSTNOTION | 53.55% | 70.05% | 2.64 | 1 | 7 | 116.0 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 8 SLAM NOTION | 47.00% | 64.20% | 2.89 | 1 | 7 | 115.0 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 6 CELTIC CONTENDER | 43.80% | 70.20% | 2.80 | 1 | 7 | 114.9 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 2 FASTER GATOR | 26.45% | 45.25% | 3.60 | 1 | 7 | 111.6 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 3 FAUST | 27.75% | 47.05% | 3.51 | 1 | 7 | 111.7 | #5 ≈ | — | |
| 6 | 1 BRING THE SMOKE | 1.45% | 3.05% | 5.77 | 1 | 7 | 99.7 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 6 | |
| 7 | 9 S S SINATRA | 0.00% | 0.20% | 6.80 | 3 | 7 | 90.1 | #6 ≈ | — |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 SLAM NOTION | 5-1 | 16.7% | 47.00% | 64.20% | ✅ 1.52x | — | |
| 2 | 4 HAILEYSFIRSTNOTION | 7-2 | 22.2% | 53.55% | 70.05% | 1.49x | — | |
| 3 | 6 CELTIC CONTENDER | 9-2 | 18.2% | 43.80% | 70.20% | 1.05x | — | |
| 4 | 3 FAUST | 8-1 | 11.1% | 27.75% | 47.05% | 0.95x | — | |
| 5 | 2 FASTER GATOR | 9-2 | 18.2% | 26.45% | 45.25% | 0.64x | — | |
| 6 | 1 BRING THE SMOKE LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 10-1 | 9.1% | 1.45% | 3.05% | 0.03x | ⚡ 6 | |
| 7 | 9 S S SINATRA LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.00x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SLAM NOTION | 16.2% | 25.4% | +9.2% | |
| 3 | FAUST | 15.6% | 10.6% | -5.1% | |
| 2 | FASTER GATOR | 15.2% | 11.6% | -3.6% | |
| 4 | HAILEYSFIRSTNOTION | 15.1% | 33.1% | +17.9% | |
| 6 | CELTIC CONTENDER | 14.5% | 19.1% | +4.6% | |
| 1 | BRING THE SMOKE | 12.5% | 0.3% | -12.2% | |
| 9 | S S SINATRA | 12.3% | 0.0% | -12.3% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 4 HAILEYSFIRSTNOTION 33.1% 7-2
- 8 SLAM NOTION 25.4% 5-1
- 6 CELTIC CONTENDER 19.1% 9-2
- 4 HAILEYSFIRSTNOTION 53.6% 7-2
- 8 SLAM NOTION 47.0% 5-1
- 6 CELTIC CONTENDER 43.8% 9-2
- 6 CELTIC CONTENDER 70.2% 9-2
- 4 HAILEYSFIRSTNOTION 70.1% 7-2
- 8 SLAM NOTION 64.2% 5-1
🏆 Actual Results
| # | Prog | Horse | Finish | Margin | Odds | Sim Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BRING THE SMOKE | — | — | Sim #6 (0.3% win) | |
| 2 | 3 | FAUST | — | — | Sim #5 (10.6% win) | |
| 3 | 4 | HAILEYSFIRSTNOTION | — | — | Sim #1 (33.1% win) | |
| 4 | 6 | CELTIC CONTENDER | — | — | Sim #3 (19.1% win) | |
| 5 | 9 | S S SINATRA | — | — | Sim #7 (0.0% win) | |
| 6 | 8 | SLAM NOTION | — | — | Sim #2 (25.4% win) | |
| 7 | 2 | FASTER GATOR | — | — | Sim #4 (11.6% win) |
Official winner: BRING THE SMOKE