TGENTRIES 10TH LRL MAY 16 9F G250000 3 BUN 1 1/8 MILES TURF THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP GRADE 3 STAKE PURSE $250000 (04:11) (7 )
Field — 7 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 FORT WASHINGTON SPEED LEADER | 96.3 | 7-2 | 77d | -3--33 | 1.1% |
| 2 | 7 HARROW | 94.7 | 12-1 | 22d | 1---2- | 3.9% |
| 3 | 1 WHAT SAY THEE | 92.3 | 15-1 | 29d | 32-3-- | 26.8% |
| 4 | 3 CRUISE THE NILE | 91 | 9-5 | 28d | -111- | 66.7% |
| 5 | 5 A BOURBON FOR TOBY | 88 | 12-1 | 9d | ---1-- | 1.6% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 CRUISE THE NILE | 89.70% | 96.85% | 1.47 | 1 | 5 | 112.2 | #4 ▲ | — | |
| 2 | 1 WHAT SAY THEE | 75.60% | 92.00% | 2.07 | 1 | 5 | 106.3 | #3 ≈ | ⚡ 536 | |
| 3 | 7 HARROW | 20.05% | 58.80% | 3.28 | 1 | 5 | 98.1 | #2 ≈ | ⚡ 77 | |
| 4 | 5 A BOURBON FOR TOBY | 6.30% | 16.80% | 4.43 | 1 | 5 | 87.4 | #5 ≈ | ⚡ 31 | |
| 5 | 4 FORT WASHINGTON | 8.35% | 35.55% | 3.75 | 1 | 5 | 95.0 | #1 ▼ | — |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 WHAT SAY THEE LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 15-1 | 6.3% | 75.60% | 92.00% | 🔥 4.29x | ⚡ 536 | |
| 2 | 3 CRUISE THE NILE | 9-5 | 35.7% | 89.70% | 96.85% | ✅ 1.87x | — | |
| 3 | 7 HARROW LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 20.05% | 58.80% | 0.50x | ⚡ 77 | |
| 4 | 5 A BOURBON FOR TOBY LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 6.30% | 16.80% | 0.20x | ⚡ 31 | |
| 5 | 4 FORT WASHINGTON | 7-2 | 22.2% | 8.35% | 35.55% | 0.05x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WHAT SAY THEE | 22.6% | 26.8% | +4.2% | |
| 3 | CRUISE THE NILE | 21.6% | 66.7% | +45.1% | |
| 5 | A BOURBON FOR TOBY | 20.3% | 1.6% | -18.8% | |
| 7 | HARROW | 18.0% | 3.9% | -14.2% | |
| 4 | FORT WASHINGTON | 17.5% | 1.1% | -16.4% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 3 CRUISE THE NILE 66.7% 9-5
- 1 WHAT SAY THEE 26.8% 15-1
- 7 HARROW 3.9% 12-1
- 3 CRUISE THE NILE 89.7% 9-5
- 1 WHAT SAY THEE 75.6% 15-1
- 7 HARROW 20.1% 12-1
- 3 CRUISE THE NILE 96.9% 9-5
- 1 WHAT SAY THEE 92.0% 15-1
- 7 HARROW 58.8% 12-1
🏆 Actual Results
| # | Prog | Horse | Finish | Margin | Odds | Sim Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FORT WASHINGTON | — | — | Sim #5 (1.1% win) | |
| 2 | 5 | A BOURBON FOR TOBY | — | — | Sim #4 (1.6% win) | |
| 3 | 3 | CRUISE THE NILE | — | — | Sim #1 (66.7% win) | |
| 4 | 1 | WHAT SAY THEE | — | — | Sim #2 (26.8% win) | |
| 5 | 7 | HARROW | — | — | Sim #3 (3.9% win) |
Official winner: Fort Washington