TNENTRIES 12TH LRL MAY 16 5.5F K125000 0 BUN 5 1/2 FURLONGS TURF THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP NONGRADED STAKE PURSE $125000 (05:52) (11)
Field — 11 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 DETERMINED KINGDOM SPEED LEADER | 96.3 | 6-1 | 28d | 23-1-1 | 30.4% |
| 2 | 1 RUN CURTIS RUN | 94 | 4-1 | 20d | 1333-1 | 0.9% |
| 3 | 8 OUTLAW KID | 93.7 | 5-1 | 28d | -3--12 | 35.3% |
| 4 | 11 HAD TO HAVE HIM | 93.3 | 8-1 | 28d | 31--31 | 4.9% |
| 5 | 3 JEAN VALJEAN | 91.7 | 5-1 | 15d | 3111-- | 17.7% |
| 6 | 4 CHASING LIBERTY | 91 | 3-1 | 28d | 3211-1 | 1.4% |
| 7 | 10 FORE HARP | 91 | 15-1 | 28d | 1---12 | 9.5% |
| 8 | 5 INCINERATOR | 88.7 | 30-1 | 15d | ---131 | 0.1% |
| 9 | 9 CARD TRICK | 87.3 | 30-1 | 184d | 22111- | 0.0% |
| 10 | 6 TIDEWATER | 86.3 | 30-1 | 15d | ---3-2 | 0.1% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 OUTLAW KID | 63.60% | 82.40% | 2.29 | 1 | 9 | 111.2 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 2 DETERMINED KINGDOM | 50.70% | 68.45% | 2.91 | 1 | 9 | 109.2 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 3 JEAN VALJEAN | 43.30% | 68.00% | 2.95 | 1 | 9 | 108.0 | #5 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 10 FORE HARP | 23.30% | 38.80% | 4.25 | 1 | 10 | 103.7 | #7 ▲ | ⚡ 190 | |
| 5 | 11 HAD TO HAVE HIM | 11.15% | 20.65% | 5.21 | 1 | 10 | 100.2 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 6 | 4 CHASING LIBERTY | 4.35% | 11.25% | 5.68 | 1 | 10 | 98.6 | #6 ≈ | — | |
| 7 | 1 RUN CURTIS RUN | 3.05% | 8.70% | 5.89 | 1 | 10 | 98.3 | #2 ▼ | — | |
| 8 | 5 INCINERATOR | 0.40% | 1.40% | 7.45 | 1 | 10 | 92.4 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 1 | |
| 9 | 6 TIDEWATER | 0.10% | 0.25% | 9.30 | 1 | 10 | 83.7 | #10 ≈ | ⚡ 1 | |
| 10 | 9 CARD TRICK | 0.05% | 0.10% | 9.07 | 2 | 10 | 85.2 | #9 ≈ | — |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 DETERMINED KINGDOM | 6-1 | 14.3% | 50.70% | 68.45% | 🔥 2.12x | — | |
| 2 | 8 OUTLAW KID | 5-1 | 16.7% | 63.60% | 82.40% | 🔥 2.11x | — | |
| 3 | 10 FORE HARP LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 15-1 | 6.3% | 23.30% | 38.80% | ✅ 1.52x | ⚡ 190 | |
| 4 | 3 JEAN VALJEAN | 5-1 | 16.7% | 43.30% | 68.00% | 1.06x | — | |
| 5 | 11 HAD TO HAVE HIM | 8-1 | 11.1% | 11.15% | 20.65% | 0.44x | — | |
| 6 | 4 CHASING LIBERTY | 3-1 | 25% | 4.35% | 11.25% | 0.06x | — | |
| 7 | 1 RUN CURTIS RUN | 4-1 | 20% | 3.05% | 8.70% | 0.04x | — | |
| 8 | 5 INCINERATOR LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 0.40% | 1.40% | 0.02x | ⚡ 1 | |
| 9 | 6 TIDEWATER LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 0.10% | 0.25% | 0.02x | ⚡ 1 | |
| 10 | 9 CARD TRICK LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 0.05% | 0.10% | 0.00x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | OUTLAW KID | 12.8% | 35.3% | +22.5% | |
| 5 | INCINERATOR | 12.7% | 0.1% | -12.6% | |
| 10 | FORE HARP | 12.6% | 9.5% | -3.1% | |
| 11 | HAD TO HAVE HIM | 12.1% | 4.9% | -7.3% | |
| 4 | CHASING LIBERTY | 11.6% | 1.4% | -10.2% | |
| 9 | CARD TRICK | 10.3% | 0.0% | -10.3% | |
| 2 | DETERMINED KINGDOM | 8.2% | 30.4% | +22.2% | |
| 3 | JEAN VALJEAN | 7.1% | 17.7% | +10.6% | |
| 6 | TIDEWATER | 7.1% | 0.1% | -7.1% | |
| 1 | RUN CURTIS RUN | 7.0% | 0.9% | -6.2% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 8 OUTLAW KID 35.3% 5-1
- 2 DETERMINED KINGDOM 30.4% 6-1
- 3 JEAN VALJEAN 17.7% 5-1
- 8 OUTLAW KID 63.6% 5-1
- 2 DETERMINED KINGDOM 50.7% 6-1
- 3 JEAN VALJEAN 43.3% 5-1
- 8 OUTLAW KID 82.4% 5-1
- 2 DETERMINED KINGDOM 68.5% 6-1
- 3 JEAN VALJEAN 68.0% 5-1
🏆 Actual Results
| # | Prog | Horse | Finish | Margin | Odds | Sim Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | CHASING LIBERTY | — | — | Sim #6 (1.4% win) | |
| 2 | 8 | OUTLAW KID | — | — | Sim #1 (35.3% win) | |
| 3 | 9 | CARD TRICK | — | — | Sim #10 (0.0% win) | |
| 4 | 1 | RUN CURTIS RUN | — | — | Sim #7 (0.9% win) | |
| 5 | 3 | JEAN VALJEAN | — | — | Sim #3 (17.7% win) | |
| — | 2 | DETERMINED KINGDOM | — | — | Sim #2 (30.4% win) | |
| — | 5 | INCINERATOR | — | — | Sim #8 (0.1% win) | |
| — | 6 | TIDEWATER | — | — | Sim #9 (0.1% win) | |
| — | 10 | FORE HARP | — | — | Sim #4 (9.5% win) | |
| — | 11 | HAD TO HAVE HIM | — | — | Sim #5 (4.9% win) |
Official winner: Chasing Liberty