DSENTRIES 1ST SAR JUNE 6 7F H115000 0 BUM 7 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT PURSE $115000 (11:00) (8 )

🏟 Saratoga 📅 2026-06-06 📏 7F Dirt Md Sp Wt 💰 $115,000

Simulations 📡 Fetch History

Field — 8 Runners

THREE SHOT SHERYL

5.7%

lbs 121

ML 15-1

J RODRIGUEZ JAMIE

T GREEN AMELIA J

By TACITUS Out of NEC METU

🥇 5.7% 🥈 17.0% 🥉 26.7% Avg 5.4 ⚡ 571 longshot wins

MY GUN'S LOADED

0.2%

RPR 60

Form -

Off 161d

lbs 121

ML 15-1

J FRANCO MANUEL

T BROWN CHAD C

By GUN RUNNER Out of STRIVE

🥇 0.2% 🥈 1.4% 🥉 3.5% Avg 7.0 ⚡ 24 longshot wins

PIPPA ADDS

0.9%

RPR 79

Form 2-

Off 44d

lbs 121

ML 6-1

J ORTIZ IRAD JR

T PLETCHER TODD A

By YAUPON Out of MOTION EMOTION

🥇 0.9% 🥈 12.3% 🥉 38.2% Avg 4.0

COLD SPELL

68.9%

RPR 96

Form 2

Off 44d

lbs 121

ML 3-5

J VELAZQUEZ J R

T WARD WESLEY A

By GUN RUNNER Out of CHALON

🥇 68.9% 🥈 88.2% 🥉 94.5% Avg 1.5

FUSION

3.6%

RPR 75

Form 2

Off 90d

lbs 121

ML 10-1

J PRAT FLAVIEN

T BROWN CHAD C

By INTO MISCHIEF Out of SEPARATIONOFPOWERS

🥇 3.6% 🥈 16.0% 🥉 29.5% Avg 4.9 ⚡ 360 longshot wins

NAKOMA

9.6%

RPR 81

Form 3

Off 29d

lbs 126

ML 10-1

J ZAYAS EDGARD J

T ANTONUCCI JENA M

By VEKOMA Out of RYLEE'S SONG

🥇 9.6% 🥈 32.8% 🥉 51.0% Avg 3.8 ⚡ 961 longshot wins

CROWNING GLORY

10.7%

lbs 121

ML 8-1

J ALVARADO JUNIOR

T MOTT WILLIAM I

By UNCLE MO Out of CLOSE HATCHES

🥇 10.7% 🥈 28.2% 🥉 40.3% Avg 4.5

MY SHERRONA

0.3%

RPR 81

Form --31-222

Off 176d

lbs 126

ML 10-1

J SAEZ LUIS

T MOTT WILLIAM I

By NOT THIS TIME Out of CLASS INCLUDED

🥇 0.3% 🥈 4.2% 🥉 16.2% Avg 4.9 ⚡ 32 longshot wins

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.

BSR Rank	Horse	Avg BSR (top-3)	ML Odds	Days Off	Form	Sim Win %
1	4 COLD SPELL SPEED LEADER	96	3-5	44d	2	68.9%
2	8 MY SHERRONA	81.3	10-1	176d	31-222	0.3%
3	6 NAKOMA	81	10-1	29d	3	9.6%
4	3 PIPPA ADDS	79	6-1	44d	2-	0.9%
5	5 FUSION	75	10-1	90d	2	3.6%
6	2 MY GUN'S LOADED	60	15-1	161d	-	0.2%
7	1 THREE SHOT SHERYL	— First starter	15-1	—	—	5.7%
8	7 CROWNING GLORY	— First starter	8-1	—	—	10.7%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs · Engine v3-trajectory-bounce · 2026-07-01 08:39:26

#	Horse	Win % ↕	Place % ↕	Show % ↕	Avg Finish ↕	Best ↕	Worst ↕	Base Score ↕	BSR Rank	⚡ Longshots
1	4 COLD SPELL	68.85%	88.21%	94.50%	1.53	1	8	105.5	#1 ≈	—
2	7 CROWNING GLORY	10.74%	28.16%	40.29%	4.54	1	8	76.8	#8 ▲	—
3	6 NAKOMA	9.61%	32.75%	51.04%	3.83	1	8	81.9	#3 ≈	⚡ 961
4	1 THREE SHOT SHERYL	5.71%	16.95%	26.71%	5.37	1	8	69.0	#7 ▲	⚡ 571
5	5 FUSION	3.60%	16.03%	29.54%	4.88	1	8	74.2	#5 ≈	⚡ 360
6	3 PIPPA ADDS	0.93%	12.27%	38.21%	3.99	1	8	79.8	#4 ≈	—
7	8 MY SHERRONA	0.32%	4.22%	16.20%	4.86	1	8	75.2	#2 ▼	⚡ 32
8	2 MY GUN'S LOADED	0.24%	1.41%	3.51%	7.01	1	8	55.4	#6 ≈	⚡ 24

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.

#	Horse	ML Odds	ML Implied %	Sim Win %	Place %	Show %	Value Rating	⚡ Longshot Wins
1	4 COLD SPELL	3-5	62.5%	68.85%	88.21%	94.50%	1.10x	—
2	6 NAKOMA LONGSHOT BEST VALUE	10-1	9.1%	9.61%	32.75%	51.04%	1.06x	⚡ 961
3	7 CROWNING GLORY	8-1	11.1%	10.74%	28.16%	40.29%	0.97x	—
4	1 THREE SHOT SHERYL LONGSHOT	15-1	6.3%	5.71%	16.95%	26.71%	0.91x	⚡ 571
5	5 FUSION LONGSHOT	10-1	9.1%	3.60%	16.03%	29.54%	0.40x	⚡ 360
6	3 PIPPA ADDS	6-1	14.3%	0.93%	12.27%	38.21%	0.07x	—
7	8 MY SHERRONA LONGSHOT	10-1	9.1%	0.32%	4.22%	16.20%	0.04x	⚡ 32
8	2 MY GUN'S LOADED LONGSHOT	15-1	6.3%	0.24%	1.41%	3.51%	0.04x	⚡ 24

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 8 horses, ~12.5% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

#	Horse	Chance Win%	Sim Win%	Edge
1	THREE SHOT SHERYL	15.5%	5.7%	-9.8%
6	NAKOMA	15.2%	9.6%	-5.6%
2	MY GUN'S LOADED	13.4%	0.2%	-13.2%
4	COLD SPELL	13.2%	68.9%	+55.6%
8	MY SHERRONA	12.9%	0.3%	-12.6%
7	CROWNING GLORY	12.1%	10.7%	-1.4%
5	FUSION	10.4%	3.6%	-6.8%
3	PIPPA ADDS	10.4%	0.9%	-9.5%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs

🥇 Top Win Picks

4 COLD SPELL 68.9% 3-5
7 CROWNING GLORY 10.7% 8-1
6 NAKOMA 9.6% 10-1

🥈 Top Place Picks

4 COLD SPELL 88.2% 3-5
6 NAKOMA 32.8% 10-1
7 CROWNING GLORY 28.2% 8-1

🥉 Top Show Picks

4 COLD SPELL 94.5% 3-5
6 NAKOMA 51.0% 10-1
7 CROWNING GLORY 40.3% 8-1

📋 Exacta Box

4-7-6

Box top 3 — covers all combinations

4 COLD SPELL 7 CROWNING GLORY 6 NAKOMA

🎲 Trifecta

4-7-6

Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank

4 → 7-6-1

Key COLD SPELL to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd

💫 Superfecta

4-7-6-1

Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos

4/7 / 4/7 / 6/1/5 / 6/1/5

Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions

Prog	Horse	Finish Position	Margin (lengths)	Final Odds
1	THREE SHOT SHERYL
2	MY GUN'S LOADED
3	PIPPA ADDS
4	COLD SPELL
5	FUSION
6	NAKOMA
7	CROWNING GLORY
8	MY SHERRONA

Official winner name: