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DSENTRIES 1ST SAR JUNE 6 7F H115000 0 BUM 7 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT PURSE $115000 (11:00) (8 )

🏟 Saratoga 📅 2026-06-06 📏 7F Dirt Md Sp Wt 💰 $115,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 8 Runners

1
THREE SHOT SHERYL
6.1%
lbs 121
ML 15-1
J RODRIGUEZ JAMIE
T GREEN AMELIA J
By TACITUS Out of NEC METU
🥇 6.1% 🥈 17.3% 🥉 26.9% Avg 5.4 ⚡ 605 longshot wins
2
MY GUN'S LOADED
0.2%
RPR 60
Form -
Off 161d
lbs 121
ML 15-1
J FRANCO MANUEL
T BROWN CHAD C
By GUN RUNNER Out of STRIVE
🥇 0.2% 🥈 1.4% 🥉 3.8% Avg 7.0 ⚡ 21 longshot wins
3
PIPPA ADDS
1.0%
RPR 79
Form 2-
Off 44d
lbs 121
ML 6-1
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T PLETCHER TODD A
By YAUPON Out of MOTION EMOTION
🥇 1.0% 🥈 12.3% 🥉 37.8% Avg 4.0
4
COLD SPELL
68.6%
RPR 96
Form 2
Off 44d
lbs 121
ML 3-5
J VELAZQUEZ J R
T WARD WESLEY A
By GUN RUNNER Out of CHALON
🥇 68.6% 🥈 87.8% 🥉 94.5% Avg 1.5
5
FUSION
3.6%
RPR 75
Form 2
Off 90d
lbs 121
ML 10-1
J PRAT FLAVIEN
T BROWN CHAD C
By INTO MISCHIEF Out of SEPARATIONOFPOWERS
🥇 3.6% 🥈 16.2% 🥉 30.5% Avg 4.9 ⚡ 357 longshot wins
6
NAKOMA
9.1%
RPR 81
Form 3
Off 29d
lbs 126
ML 10-1
J ZAYAS EDGARD J
T ANTONUCCI JENA M
By VEKOMA Out of RYLEE'S SONG
🥇 9.1% 🥈 31.8% 🥉 49.1% Avg 3.9 ⚡ 906 longshot wins
7
CROWNING GLORY
11.2%
lbs 121
ML 8-1
J ALVARADO JUNIOR
T MOTT WILLIAM I
By UNCLE MO Out of CLOSE HATCHES
🥇 11.2% 🥈 29.1% 🥉 40.9% Avg 4.5
8
MY SHERRONA
0.3%
RPR 81
Form --31-222
Off 176d
lbs 126
ML 10-1
J SAEZ LUIS
T MOTT WILLIAM I
By NOT THIS TIME Out of CLASS INCLUDED
🥇 0.3% 🥈 4.1% 🥉 16.5% Avg 4.9 ⚡ 28 longshot wins

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 4 COLD SPELL SPEED LEADER 96 3-5 44d 2 68.6%
2 8 MY SHERRONA 81.3 10-1 176d 31-222 0.3%
3 6 NAKOMA 81 10-1 29d 3 9.1%
4 3 PIPPA ADDS 79 6-1 44d 2- 1.0%
5 5 FUSION 75 10-1 90d 2 3.6%
6 2 MY GUN'S LOADED 60 15-1 161d - 0.2%
7 1 THREE SHOT SHERYL — First starter 15-1 — — 6.1%
8 7 CROWNING GLORY — First starter 8-1 — — 11.2%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-07-21 21:06:29
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 4 COLD SPELL
68.63%
87.78% 94.52% 1.54 1 8 105.3 #1 ≈ —
2 7 CROWNING GLORY
11.21%
29.07% 40.92% 4.52 1 8 76.7 #8 ▲ —
3 6 NAKOMA
9.06%
31.78% 49.08% 3.88 1 8 81.9 #3 ≈ ⚡ 906
4 1 THREE SHOT SHERYL
6.05%
17.34% 26.88% 5.36 1 8 69.0 #7 ▲ ⚡ 605
5 5 FUSION
3.57%
16.22% 30.51% 4.86 1 8 74.2 #5 ≈ ⚡ 357
6 3 PIPPA ADDS
0.99%
12.28% 37.75% 4.00 1 8 79.6 #4 ≈ —
7 8 MY SHERRONA
0.28%
4.09% 16.54% 4.85 1 8 75.2 #2 ▼ ⚡ 28
8 2 MY GUN'S LOADED
0.21%
1.44% 3.80% 7.00 1 8 55.4 #6 ≈ ⚡ 21

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 4 COLD SPELL 3-5 62.5%
68.63%
87.78% 94.52% 1.10x —
2 7 CROWNING GLORY 8-1 11.1%
11.21%
29.07% 40.92% 1.01x —
3 6 NAKOMA LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 10-1 9.1%
9.06%
31.78% 49.08% 1.00x ⚡ 906
4 1 THREE SHOT SHERYL LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
6.05%
17.34% 26.88% 0.97x ⚡ 605
5 5 FUSION LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
3.57%
16.22% 30.51% 0.39x ⚡ 357
6 3 PIPPA ADDS 6-1 14.3%
0.99%
12.28% 37.75% 0.07x —
7 8 MY SHERRONA LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
0.28%
4.09% 16.54% 0.03x ⚡ 28
8 2 MY GUN'S LOADED LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.21%
1.44% 3.80% 0.03x ⚡ 21

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 8 horses, ~12.5% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
1 THREE SHOT SHERYL 15.5% 6.1% -9.5%
6 NAKOMA 15.2% 9.1% -6.1%
2 MY GUN'S LOADED 13.4% 0.2% -13.2%
4 COLD SPELL 13.2% 68.6% +55.4%
8 MY SHERRONA 12.9% 0.3% -12.6%
7 CROWNING GLORY 12.1% 11.2% -0.9%
5 FUSION 10.4% 3.6% -6.8%
3 PIPPA ADDS 10.4% 1.0% -9.4%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 4 COLD SPELL 68.6% 3-5
  2. 7 CROWNING GLORY 11.2% 8-1
  3. 6 NAKOMA 9.1% 10-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 4 COLD SPELL 87.8% 3-5
  2. 6 NAKOMA 31.8% 10-1
  3. 7 CROWNING GLORY 29.1% 8-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 4 COLD SPELL 94.5% 3-5
  2. 6 NAKOMA 49.1% 10-1
  3. 7 CROWNING GLORY 40.9% 8-1
📋 Exacta Box
4-7-6
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
4 COLD SPELL 7 CROWNING GLORY 6 NAKOMA
🎲 Trifecta
4-7-6
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
4 → 7-6-1
Key COLD SPELL to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
4-7-6-1
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
4/7 / 4/7 / 6/1/5 / 6/1/5
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 THREE SHOT SHERYL
2 MY GUN'S LOADED
3 PIPPA ADDS
4 COLD SPELL
5 FUSION
6 NAKOMA
7 CROWNING GLORY
8 MY SHERRONA