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DAENTRIES 2ND SAR JUNE 6 7F I125000 0 BUN 7 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING PURSE $125000 (11:37) (9 )

🏟 Saratoga 📅 2026-06-06 📏 7F Dirt OClm 80000b 💰 $125,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 9 Runners

1
PARADISE VALLEY
4.9%
RPR 96
Form 13-2-33223
Off 15d
lbs 126
ML 30-1
J GONZALEZ SILVESTRE
T KANTARMACI ILKAY
By LOOKIN AT LUCKY Out of PUDDIFOOT
🥇 4.9% 🥈 11.4% 🥉 21.0% Avg 5.4 ⚡ 489 longshot wins
2
UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL
0.8%
RPR 89
Form 1-211-3131
Off 34d
lbs 126
ML 30-1
J DAVIS DYLAN
T NODA ORLANDO
By UNION RAGS Out of CHAMPAGNE ICE
🥇 0.8% 🥈 3.0% 🥉 8.8% Avg 5.9 ⚡ 76 longshot wins
3
LIFE AND TIMES
29.3%
RPR 98
Form 1311
Off 77d
lbs 126
ML 9-5
J PRAT FLAVIEN
T PLETCHER TODD A
By JUSTIFY Out of SILKY SERENADE
🥇 29.3% 🥈 59.6% 🥉 81.1% Avg 2.4
4
INCENTIVE PAY
31.6%
RPR 95
Form 1331
Off 63d
lbs 126
ML 5-1
J FRANCO MANUEL
T BROWN CHAD C
By VOLATILE Out of DISTINGUISHABLE
🥇 31.6% 🥈 57.3% 🥉 76.3% Avg 2.5
5
RESILIENCE
0.8%
RPR 92
Form 3-1112-1-1
Off 63d
lbs 126
ML 15-1
J LEZCANO JOSE
T MOTT WILLIAM I
By INTO MISCHIEF Out of MEADOWSWEET
🥇 0.8% 🥈 2.7% 🥉 6.5% Avg 6.5 ⚡ 81 longshot wins
6
AWESOME NATIVE
0.2%
RPR 98
Form 2-3-21--12
Off 90d
lbs 126
ML 20-1
J ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER
T FARONE THOMAS JUDE
By PRACTICAL JOKE Out of BELLA KATERI
🥇 0.2% 🥈 0.6% 🥉 1.8% Avg 7.2 ⚡ 18 longshot wins
7
CONTRARY THINKING
14.6%
RPR 93
Form 31--1---1
Off 42d
lbs 126
ML 8-1
J RODRIGUEZ JAMIE
T GREEN AMELIA J
By INTO MISCHIEF Out of VALADORNA
🥇 14.6% 🥈 20.8% 🥉 26.7% Avg 5.9
8
COMMUTED
6.5%
RPR 90
Form 1111---11-
Off 13d
lbs 126
ML 6-1
J SANTANA RICARDO JR
T RICE LINDA
By GUN RUNNER Out of FINAL HOLIDAY
🥇 6.5% 🥈 13.1% 🥉 20.7% Avg 5.9
9
SENIOR OFFICER
11.3%
RPR 94
Form 1221
Off 55d
lbs 126
ML 2-1
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T COX BRAD H
By INTO MISCHIEF Out of SOUTHERN RING
🥇 11.3% 🥈 31.6% 🥉 57.1% Avg 3.3

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 3 LIFE AND TIMES SPEED LEADER 98 9-5 77d 1311 29.3%
2 6 AWESOME NATIVE 98 20-1 90d 21--12 0.2%
3 1 PARADISE VALLEY 96 30-1 15d -33223 4.9%
4 4 INCENTIVE PAY 95.7 5-1 63d 1331 31.6%
5 9 SENIOR OFFICER 94.3 2-1 55d 1221 11.3%
6 7 CONTRARY THINKING 93.7 8-1 42d -1---1 14.6%
7 5 RESILIENCE 92.7 15-1 63d 12-1-1 0.8%
8 8 COMMUTED 90 6-1 13d ---11- 6.5%
9 2 UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL 89.7 30-1 34d 1-3131 0.8%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-07-21 21:06:30
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 4 INCENTIVE PAY
31.56%
57.28% 76.30% 2.54 1 9 110.4 #4 ▲ —
2 3 LIFE AND TIMES
29.29%
59.61% 81.10% 2.41 1 9 110.4 #1 ≈ —
3 7 CONTRARY THINKING
14.64%
20.83% 26.68% 5.94 1 9 94.6 #6 ▲ —
4 9 SENIOR OFFICER
11.34%
31.56% 57.12% 3.35 1 9 106.7 #5 ≈ —
5 8 COMMUTED
6.53%
13.11% 20.65% 5.86 1 9 96.5 #8 ▲ —
6 1 PARADISE VALLEY
4.89%
11.35% 21.01% 5.39 1 9 99.0 #3 ▼ ⚡ 489
7 5 RESILIENCE
0.81%
2.68% 6.50% 6.49 1 9 94.8 #7 ≈ ⚡ 81
8 2 UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL
0.76%
2.95% 8.80% 5.85 1 9 97.5 #9 ≈ ⚡ 76
9 6 AWESOME NATIVE
0.18%
0.63% 1.84% 7.19 1 9 92.1 #2 ▼ ⚡ 18

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 4 INCENTIVE PAY 5-1 16.7%
31.56%
57.28% 76.30% ✅ 1.89x —
2 1 PARADISE VALLEY LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 30-1 3.2%
4.89%
11.35% 21.01% ✅ 1.52x ⚡ 489
3 7 CONTRARY THINKING 8-1 11.1%
14.64%
20.83% 26.68% 1.32x —
4 3 LIFE AND TIMES 9-5 35.7%
29.29%
59.61% 81.10% 0.82x —
5 8 COMMUTED 6-1 14.3%
6.53%
13.11% 20.65% 0.46x —
6 9 SENIOR OFFICER 2-1 33.3%
11.34%
31.56% 57.12% 0.34x —
7 2 UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.76%
2.95% 8.80% 0.24x ⚡ 76
8 5 RESILIENCE LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.81%
2.68% 6.50% 0.13x ⚡ 81
9 6 AWESOME NATIVE LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
0.18%
0.63% 1.84% 0.04x ⚡ 18

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 9 horses, ~11.1% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
4 INCENTIVE PAY 13.9% 31.6% +17.7%
3 LIFE AND TIMES 13.2% 29.3% +16.1%
5 RESILIENCE 12.7% 0.8% -11.9%
6 AWESOME NATIVE 12.4% 0.2% -12.2%
8 COMMUTED 12.3% 6.5% -5.8%
7 CONTRARY THINKING 11.9% 14.6% +2.7%
1 PARADISE VALLEY 11.0% 4.9% -6.1%
2 UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL 10.0% 0.8% -9.2%
9 SENIOR OFFICER 8.7% 11.3% +2.6%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 4 INCENTIVE PAY 31.6% 5-1
  2. 3 LIFE AND TIMES 29.3% 9-5
  3. 7 CONTRARY THINKING 14.6% 8-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 3 LIFE AND TIMES 59.6% 9-5
  2. 4 INCENTIVE PAY 57.3% 5-1
  3. 9 SENIOR OFFICER 31.6% 2-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 3 LIFE AND TIMES 81.1% 9-5
  2. 4 INCENTIVE PAY 76.3% 5-1
  3. 9 SENIOR OFFICER 57.1% 2-1
📋 Exacta Box
4-3-7
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
4 INCENTIVE PAY 3 LIFE AND TIMES 7 CONTRARY THINKING
🎲 Trifecta
4-3-7
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
4 → 3-7-9
Key INCENTIVE PAY to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
4-3-7-9
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
4/3 / 4/3 / 7/9/8 / 7/9/8
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 PARADISE VALLEY
2 UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL
3 LIFE AND TIMES
4 INCENTIVE PAY
5 RESILIENCE
6 AWESOME NATIVE
7 CONTRARY THINKING
8 COMMUTED
9 SENIOR OFFICER