TAENTRIES 3RD SAR JUNE 6 8.5F O125000 0 BUN 1 1/16 MILES INNER TURF THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING PURSE $125000 (12:15) (15)
Field — 15 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 INTELLECT SPEED LEADER | 99 | 6-5 | 49d | -1122- | 3.9% |
| 2 | 11 LE GRIS | 96.3 | 3-1 | 14d | -1321- | 15.8% |
| 3 | 14 BIG BLUE LINE | 95.3 | 6-1 | 30d | -1223- | 3.4% |
| 4 | 12 OTELLO | 93.3 | 5-1 | 14d | 111--1 | 25.1% |
| 5 | 5 BONUS MOVE | 93 | 15-1 | 98d | ---11- | 0.3% |
| 6 | 7 SON OF A BIRCH | 93 | 10-1 | 35d | ------ | 1.0% |
| 7 | 3 CIAO CHUCK | 92.3 | 20-1 | 69d | 112111 | 21.9% |
| 8 | 2 SIGNATOR | 92 | 10-1 | 146d | -13--- | 2.4% |
| 9 | 15 CASTLE CHAOS | 92 | 8-1 | 12d | 1--3-3 | 0.7% |
| 10 | 6 TENACIOUS LEADER | 90.3 | 5-1 | 98d | 11-21- | 4.1% |
| 11 | 13 SARA'S SHAMAN | 90 | 20-1 | 13d | 31--21 | 0.8% |
| 12 | 9 CANDYTOWN | 89.7 | 4-1 | 217d | 2113-2 | 0.4% |
| 13 | 10 RANGER BATTALION | 89.7 | 5-2 | 42d | -12322 | 1.6% |
| 14 | 1 EJTIMAA | 89.3 | 12-1 | 44d | --33-1 | 10.7% |
| 15 | 4 TWO'S A CROWD | 85.3 | 10-1 | 12d | 2----- | 8.0% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 OTELLO | 37.36% | 46.27% | 5.39 | 1 | 15 | 98.8 | #4 ▲ | — | |
| 2 | 3 CIAO CHUCK | 39.97% | 53.40% | 4.20 | 1 | 15 | 100.3 | #7 ▲ | ⚡ 2188 | |
| 3 | 11 LE GRIS | 36.11% | 53.79% | 3.87 | 1 | 15 | 100.2 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 1 EJTIMAA | 25.72% | 41.69% | 4.54 | 1 | 15 | 98.7 | #14 ▲ | ⚡ 1072 | |
| 5 | 4 TWO'S A CROWD | 13.26% | 17.88% | 9.44 | 1 | 15 | 88.3 | #15 ▲ | ⚡ 798 | |
| 6 | 6 TENACIOUS LEADER | 8.93% | 14.11% | 8.88 | 1 | 15 | 90.6 | #10 ▲ | — | |
| 7 | 8 INTELLECT | 11.04% | 20.28% | 6.37 | 1 | 15 | 95.1 | #1 ▼ | — | |
| 8 | 14 BIG BLUE LINE | 8.14% | 13.79% | 8.56 | 1 | 15 | 91.0 | #3 ▼ | — | |
| 9 | 2 SIGNATOR | 4.97% | 8.20% | 10.62 | 1 | 15 | 86.2 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 241 | |
| 10 | 10 RANGER BATTALION | 4.76% | 9.73% | 7.93 | 1 | 15 | 92.3 | #13 ▲ | — | |
| 11 | 7 SON OF A BIRCH | 3.35% | 7.00% | 8.59 | 1 | 15 | 91.3 | #6 ▼ | ⚡ 96 | |
| 12 | 13 SARA'S SHAMAN | 2.48% | 5.31% | 10.44 | 1 | 15 | 87.2 | #11 ≈ | ⚡ 82 | |
| 13 | 15 CASTLE CHAOS | 2.14% | 4.49% | 9.42 | 1 | 15 | 89.7 | #9 ▼ | — | |
| 14 | 9 CANDYTOWN | 1.11% | 2.62% | 10.13 | 1 | 15 | 88.5 | #12 ≈ | — | |
| 15 | 5 BONUS MOVE | 0.66% | 1.44% | 11.62 | 1 | 15 | 85.3 | #5 ▼ | ⚡ 27 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 CIAO CHUCK LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 20-1 | 4.8% | 39.97% | 53.40% | 🔥 4.59x | ⚡ 2188 | |
| 2 | 12 OTELLO | 5-1 | 16.7% | 37.36% | 46.27% | ✅ 1.51x | — | |
| 3 | 1 EJTIMAA LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 25.72% | 41.69% | 1.39x | ⚡ 1072 | |
| 4 | 4 TWO'S A CROWD LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 13.26% | 17.88% | 0.88x | ⚡ 798 | |
| 5 | 11 LE GRIS | 3-1 | 25% | 36.11% | 53.79% | 0.63x | — | |
| 6 | 2 SIGNATOR LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 4.97% | 8.20% | 0.27x | ⚡ 241 | |
| 7 | 6 TENACIOUS LEADER | 5-1 | 16.7% | 8.93% | 14.11% | 0.25x | — | |
| 8 | 14 BIG BLUE LINE | 6-1 | 14.3% | 8.14% | 13.79% | 0.24x | — | |
| 9 | 13 SARA'S SHAMAN LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 2.48% | 5.31% | 0.17x | ⚡ 82 | |
| 10 | 7 SON OF A BIRCH LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 3.35% | 7.00% | 0.11x | ⚡ 96 | |
| 11 | 8 INTELLECT | 6-5 | 45.5% | 11.04% | 20.28% | 0.09x | — | |
| 12 | 10 RANGER BATTALION | 5-2 | 28.6% | 4.76% | 9.73% | 0.06x | — | |
| 13 | 15 CASTLE CHAOS | 8-1 | 11.1% | 2.14% | 4.49% | 0.06x | — | |
| 14 | 5 BONUS MOVE LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 0.66% | 1.44% | 0.04x | ⚡ 27 | |
| 15 | 9 CANDYTOWN | 4-1 | 20% | 1.11% | 2.62% | 0.02x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | CANDYTOWN | 9.6% | 0.4% | -9.2% | |
| 10 | RANGER BATTALION | 9.3% | 1.6% | -7.7% | |
| 11 | LE GRIS | 9.1% | 15.8% | +6.7% | |
| 15 | CASTLE CHAOS | 8.9% | 0.7% | -8.3% | |
| 7 | SON OF A BIRCH | 7.4% | 1.0% | -6.4% | |
| 4 | TWO'S A CROWD | 6.7% | 8.0% | +1.3% | |
| 8 | INTELLECT | 6.6% | 3.9% | -2.7% | |
| 13 | SARA'S SHAMAN | 5.7% | 0.8% | -4.9% | |
| 6 | TENACIOUS LEADER | 5.5% | 4.1% | -1.4% | |
| 12 | OTELLO | 4.7% | 25.1% | +20.4% | |
| 3 | CIAO CHUCK | 4.7% | 21.9% | +17.2% | |
| 2 | SIGNATOR | 4.7% | 2.4% | -2.3% | |
| 14 | BIG BLUE LINE | 4.5% | 3.4% | -1.1% | |
| 5 | BONUS MOVE | 4.4% | 0.3% | -4.1% | |
| 1 | EJTIMAA | 3.9% | 10.7% | +6.8% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 12 OTELLO 25.1% 5-1
- 3 CIAO CHUCK 21.9% 20-1
- 11 LE GRIS 15.8% 3-1
- 3 CIAO CHUCK 40.0% 20-1
- 12 OTELLO 37.4% 5-1
- 11 LE GRIS 36.1% 3-1
- 11 LE GRIS 53.8% 3-1
- 3 CIAO CHUCK 53.4% 20-1
- 12 OTELLO 46.3% 5-1