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DAENTRIES 6TH SAR JUNE 6 6.5F N120000 0 BUN 6 1/2 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP ALLOWANCE PURSE $120000 (02:09) (14)

🏟 Saratoga 📅 2026-06-06 📏 6½F Dirt Alw 120000n1x 💰 $120,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 14 Runners

1
PLAYA DEL MAR
1.6%
RPR 93
Form 111-212--3
Off 36d
lbs 126
ML 6-1
J FRANCO MANUEL
T RICE LINDA
By INTO MISCHIEF Out of FLOR DE LA MAR
🥇 1.6% 🥈 4.8% 🥉 9.6% Avg 7.8
2
VILLAGE PERSON
2.4%
RPR 86
Form 1211
Off 30d
lbs 126
ML 20-1
J CARMOUCHE K
T KLESARIS STEVE
By MUCHO MACHO MAN Out of CLASSIC MELODY
🥇 2.4% 🥈 8.5% 🥉 18.2% Avg 6.0 ⚡ 240 longshot wins
3
BUTTAH
6.6%
RPR 90
Form 2---211221
Off 23d
lbs 126
ML 15-1
J CASTELLANO J J
T KANTARMACI ILKAY
By LEOFRIC Out of SALTY LITTLE SIS
🥇 6.6% 🥈 19.9% 🥉 37.0% Avg 4.6 ⚡ 655 longshot wins
4
YO BANANA BOY
0.4%
RPR 91
Form --1322-2--
Off 43d
lbs 126
ML 20-1
J SANTANA RICARDO JR
T MAKER MICHAEL J
By PRACTICAL JOKE Out of TIZSOMETHINGROYAL
🥇 0.4% 🥈 1.3% 🥉 2.6% Avg 10.1 ⚡ 41 longshot wins
5
LOCAL KNOWLEDGE
16.1%
RPR 93
Form 1
Off 245d
lbs 121
ML 5-2
J VELAZQUEZ J R
T PLETCHER TODD A
By YAUPON Out of CHESTNUT STREET
🥇 16.1% 🥈 27.4% 🥉 35.1% Avg 6.8
6
CALDO CANDY
11.4%
RPR 95
Form -3-1-2---1
Off 224d
lbs 126
ML 10-1
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T ABREU JORGE R
By CANDY RIDE Out of TANGLEWOOD TALE
🥇 11.4% 🥈 29.7% 🥉 48.0% Avg 4.1 ⚡ 1141 longshot wins
7
BRIGHTLINE BULLET
0.7%
RPR 83
Form 13
Off 58d
lbs 126
ML 10-1
J RODRIGUEZ JAMIE
T CLEMENT MIGUEL
By LIAM'S MAP Out of SENSE OF WAR
🥇 0.7% 🥈 2.3% 🥉 5.7% Avg 8.1 ⚡ 67 longshot wins
8
SEA STRIKE
14.9%
RPR 90
Form 1
Off 42d
lbs 121
ML 4-1
J PRAT FLAVIEN
T BROWN CHAD C
By MIDSHIPMAN Out of MEETMEONLINE
🥇 14.9% 🥈 25.6% 🥉 32.2% Avg 7.1
9
MARY'S LAD
0.0%
RPR 86
Form 1-----
Off 85d
lbs 126
ML 15-1
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T BECKMAN D WHITWORTH
By EARTHLIGHT Out of GORGES
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.1% 🥉 0.3% Avg 12.0 ⚡ 1 longshot wins
10
IMAGINE JOHN
0.1%
RPR 79
Form -2-1333
Off 29d
lbs 121
ML 30-1
J ZAYAS EDGARD J
T ANTONUCCI JENA M
By MACLEAN'S MUSIC Out of LADY AZALEA
🥇 0.1% 🥈 0.4% 🥉 1.0% Avg 10.4 ⚡ 6 longshot wins
11
BRAZENLY
0.9%
RPR 93
Form 3322--13--
Off 27d
lbs 126
ML 15-1
J LEZCANO JOSE
T ENGLEHART CHRIS
By GRAZEN Out of SWEET BOSS
🥇 0.9% 🥈 3.5% 🥉 8.0% Avg 7.5 ⚡ 91 longshot wins
12
TRUST FUND
10.0%
RPR 91
Form --1-333111
Off 42d
lbs 126
ML 30-1
J DAVIS DYLAN
T ARRIAGA ANTONIO
By PRACTICAL JOKE Out of MO SAVINGS
🥇 10.0% 🥈 23.0% 🥉 35.9% Avg 5.5 ⚡ 995 longshot wins
13
STRATEGICOPERATION
4.2%
RPR 78
Form 1
Off 38d
lbs 114
ML 50-1
J RIVERA DALILA A
T ARRIAGA ANTONIO
By LEXITONIAN Out of SOUL OF FASHION
🥇 4.2% 🥈 8.9% 🥉 13.0% Avg 10.0 ⚡ 418 longshot wins
14
GUN RANGE
30.9%
RPR 94
Form 1
Off 43d
lbs 121
ML 8-1
J SAEZ LUIS
T WARD WESLEY A
By GUN RUNNER Out of BELLA CARINA
🥇 30.9% 🥈 44.7% 🥉 53.4% Avg 4.9

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 6 CALDO CANDY SPEED LEADER 95 10-1 224d -2---1 11.4%
2 14 GUN RANGE 94 8-1 43d 1 30.9%
3 1 PLAYA DEL MAR 93 6-1 36d 212--3 1.6%
4 5 LOCAL KNOWLEDGE 93 5-2 245d 1 16.1%
5 11 BRAZENLY 93 15-1 27d --13-- 0.9%
6 4 YO BANANA BOY 91.3 20-1 43d 22-2-- 0.4%
7 12 TRUST FUND 91 30-1 42d 333111 10.0%
8 3 BUTTAH 90 15-1 23d 211221 6.6%
9 8 SEA STRIKE 90 4-1 42d 1 14.9%
10 2 VILLAGE PERSON 86.7 20-1 30d 1211 2.4%
11 9 MARY'S LAD 86.7 15-1 85d 1----- 0.0%
12 7 BRIGHTLINE BULLET 83.5 10-1 58d 13 0.7%
13 10 IMAGINE JOHN 79 30-1 29d 2-1333 0.1%
14 13 STRATEGICOPERATION 78 50-1 38d 1 4.2%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-07-21 21:06:31
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 14 GUN RANGE
30.93%
44.69% 53.44% 4.87 1 14 103.2 #2 ≈ —
2 5 LOCAL KNOWLEDGE
16.05%
27.40% 35.13% 6.81 1 14 96.2 #4 ≈ —
3 8 SEA STRIKE
14.92%
25.55% 32.24% 7.06 1 14 96.0 #9 ▲ —
4 6 CALDO CANDY
11.41%
29.72% 48.04% 4.13 1 14 101.9 #1 ▼ ⚡ 1141
5 12 TRUST FUND
9.95%
22.98% 35.87% 5.46 1 14 99.3 #7 ≈ ⚡ 995
6 3 BUTTAH
6.55%
19.87% 36.98% 4.63 1 14 100.5 #8 ≈ ⚡ 655
7 13 STRATEGICOPERATION
4.18%
8.91% 12.96% 10.05 1 14 85.2 #14 ▲ ⚡ 418
8 2 VILLAGE PERSON
2.40%
8.46% 18.18% 6.05 1 14 97.2 #10 ≈ ⚡ 240
9 1 PLAYA DEL MAR
1.55%
4.79% 9.56% 7.78 1 14 93.6 #3 ▼ —
10 11 BRAZENLY
0.91%
3.54% 8.01% 7.47 1 14 94.2 #5 ▼ ⚡ 91
11 7 BRIGHTLINE BULLET
0.67%
2.34% 5.68% 8.14 1 14 92.7 #12 ≈ ⚡ 67
12 4 YO BANANA BOY
0.41%
1.31% 2.64% 10.11 1 14 87.9 #6 ▼ ⚡ 41
13 10 IMAGINE JOHN
0.06%
0.35% 1.01% 10.42 1 14 87.6 #13 ≈ ⚡ 6
14 9 MARY'S LAD
0.01%
0.09% 0.26% 12.02 1 14 83.2 #11 ▼ ⚡ 1

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 12 TRUST FUND LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 30-1 3.2%
9.95%
22.98% 35.87% 🔥 3.08x ⚡ 995
2 14 GUN RANGE 8-1 11.1%
30.93%
44.69% 53.44% 🔥 2.78x —
3 13 STRATEGICOPERATION LONGSHOT 50-1 2%
4.18%
8.91% 12.96% 🔥 2.13x ⚡ 418
4 6 CALDO CANDY LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
11.41%
29.72% 48.04% 1.26x ⚡ 1141
5 3 BUTTAH LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
6.55%
19.87% 36.98% 1.05x ⚡ 655
6 8 SEA STRIKE 4-1 20%
14.92%
25.55% 32.24% 0.75x —
7 5 LOCAL KNOWLEDGE 5-2 28.6%
16.05%
27.40% 35.13% 0.56x —
8 2 VILLAGE PERSON LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
2.40%
8.46% 18.18% 0.50x ⚡ 240
9 11 BRAZENLY LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.91%
3.54% 8.01% 0.15x ⚡ 91
10 1 PLAYA DEL MAR 6-1 14.3%
1.55%
4.79% 9.56% 0.11x —
11 4 YO BANANA BOY LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
0.41%
1.31% 2.64% 0.09x ⚡ 41
12 7 BRIGHTLINE BULLET LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
0.67%
2.34% 5.68% 0.07x ⚡ 67
13 10 IMAGINE JOHN LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.06%
0.35% 1.01% 0.02x ⚡ 6
14 9 MARY'S LAD LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.01%
0.09% 0.26% 0.00x ⚡ 1

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 14 horses, ~7.1% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
5 LOCAL KNOWLEDGE 9.9% 16.1% +6.2%
6 CALDO CANDY 9.3% 11.4% +2.1%
7 BRIGHTLINE BULLET 9.1% 0.7% -8.4%
9 MARY'S LAD 9.1% 0.0% -9.1%
4 YO BANANA BOY 8.9% 0.4% -8.5%
3 BUTTAH 8.8% 6.6% -2.2%
10 IMAGINE JOHN 7.9% 0.1% -7.8%
2 VILLAGE PERSON 7.8% 2.4% -5.4%
11 BRAZENLY 7.2% 0.9% -6.3%
14 GUN RANGE 6.5% 30.9% +24.4%
1 PLAYA DEL MAR 6.2% 1.6% -4.6%
8 SEA STRIKE 5.6% 14.9% +9.3%
12 TRUST FUND 4.5% 10.0% +5.4%
13 STRATEGICOPERATION 4.1% 4.2% +0.1%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 14 GUN RANGE 30.9% 8-1
  2. 5 LOCAL KNOWLEDGE 16.1% 5-2
  3. 8 SEA STRIKE 14.9% 4-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 14 GUN RANGE 44.7% 8-1
  2. 6 CALDO CANDY 29.7% 10-1
  3. 5 LOCAL KNOWLEDGE 27.4% 5-2
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 14 GUN RANGE 53.4% 8-1
  2. 6 CALDO CANDY 48.0% 10-1
  3. 3 BUTTAH 37.0% 15-1
📋 Exacta Box
14-5-8
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
14 GUN RANGE 5 LOCAL KNOWLEDGE 8 SEA STRIKE
🎲 Trifecta
14-5-8
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
14 → 5-8-6
Key GUN RANGE to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
14-5-8-6
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
14/5 / 14/5 / 8/6/12 / 8/6/12
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 PLAYA DEL MAR
2 VILLAGE PERSON
3 BUTTAH
4 YO BANANA BOY
5 LOCAL KNOWLEDGE
6 CALDO CANDY
7 BRIGHTLINE BULLET
8 SEA STRIKE
9 MARY'S LAD
10 IMAGINE JOHN
11 BRAZENLY
12 TRUST FUND
13 STRATEGICOPERATION
14 GUN RANGE