DGENTRIES 8TH SAR JUNE 6 6.5F I400000 3 CUN 6 1/2 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 4 YEAR OLDS AND UP GRADE 3 STAKE PURSE $400000 (03:25) (9 )
Field — 9 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 BOOK'EM DANNO SPEED LEADER | 105.7 | 2-1 | 63d | -1-231 | 12.8% |
| 2 | 3 BENTORNATO | 105.3 | 8-5 | 70d | 123111 | 73.7% |
| 3 | 2 IMAGINATION | 101.7 | 4-1 | 35d | -321-- | 2.9% |
| 4 | 8 ILLUMINARE | 100 | 10-1 | 50d | --1-11 | 9.6% |
| 5 | 7 BE YOU | 98.3 | 12-1 | 35d | 21-312 | 0.1% |
| 6 | 4 LISTENUPSHANCE | 97.7 | 30-1 | 35d | --11-3 | 0.7% |
| 7 | 1 ACOUSTIC AVE | 95.7 | 30-1 | 28d | 1-2322 | 0.1% |
| 8 | 5 FAUST | 95.7 | 15-1 | 21d | 3-3-33 | 0.0% |
| 9 | 9 PENTATHLON | 95.7 | 12-1 | 34d | 1--1-- | 0.1% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 BENTORNATO | 93.67% | 98.81% | 1.34 | 1 | 7 | 126.8 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 6 BOOK'EM DANNO | 61.04% | 88.02% | 2.42 | 1 | 8 | 118.5 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 8 ILLUMINARE | 19.89% | 30.76% | 5.45 | 1 | 9 | 104.3 | #4 ≈ | ⚡ 960 | |
| 4 | 2 IMAGINATION | 18.58% | 52.68% | 3.64 | 1 | 9 | 112.1 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 4 LISTENUPSHANCE | 3.78% | 11.63% | 6.24 | 1 | 9 | 101.1 | #6 ≈ | ⚡ 67 | |
| 6 | 1 ACOUSTIC AVE | 1.40% | 8.86% | 5.58 | 1 | 9 | 104.1 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 12 | |
| 7 | 9 PENTATHLON | 0.57% | 3.14% | 6.65 | 1 | 9 | 99.8 | #9 ≈ | ⚡ 9 | |
| 8 | 7 BE YOU | 0.54% | 2.90% | 6.97 | 1 | 9 | 98.5 | #5 ▼ | ⚡ 7 | |
| 9 | 5 FAUST | 0.53% | 3.20% | 6.70 | 1 | 9 | 99.7 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 2 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 BENTORNATO | 8-5 | 38.5% | 93.67% | 98.81% | ✅ 1.92x | — | |
| 2 | 8 ILLUMINARE LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 10-1 | 9.1% | 19.89% | 30.76% | 1.06x | ⚡ 960 | |
| 3 | 6 BOOK'EM DANNO | 2-1 | 33.3% | 61.04% | 88.02% | 0.38x | — | |
| 4 | 4 LISTENUPSHANCE LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 3.78% | 11.63% | 0.21x | ⚡ 67 | |
| 5 | 2 IMAGINATION | 4-1 | 20% | 18.58% | 52.68% | 0.15x | — | |
| 6 | 1 ACOUSTIC AVE LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 1.40% | 8.86% | 0.04x | ⚡ 12 | |
| 7 | 9 PENTATHLON LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 0.57% | 3.14% | 0.01x | ⚡ 9 | |
| 8 | 7 BE YOU LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 0.54% | 2.90% | 0.01x | ⚡ 7 | |
| 9 | 5 FAUST LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 0.53% | 3.20% | 0.00x | ⚡ 2 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | PENTATHLON | 14.1% | 0.1% | -14.0% | |
| 8 | ILLUMINARE | 13.3% | 9.6% | -3.7% | |
| 1 | ACOUSTIC AVE | 13.2% | 0.1% | -13.1% | |
| 7 | BE YOU | 9.8% | 0.1% | -9.7% | |
| 3 | BENTORNATO | 9.6% | 73.7% | +64.1% | |
| 2 | IMAGINATION | 9.6% | 2.9% | -6.7% | |
| 5 | FAUST | 9.6% | 0.0% | -9.6% | |
| 6 | BOOK'EM DANNO | 9.1% | 12.8% | +3.7% | |
| 4 | LISTENUPSHANCE | 8.7% | 0.7% | -8.0% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 3 BENTORNATO 73.7% 8-5
- 6 BOOK'EM DANNO 12.8% 2-1
- 8 ILLUMINARE 9.6% 10-1
- 3 BENTORNATO 93.7% 8-5
- 6 BOOK'EM DANNO 61.0% 2-1
- 8 ILLUMINARE 19.9% 10-1
- 3 BENTORNATO 98.8% 8-5
- 6 BOOK'EM DANNO 88.0% 2-1
- 2 IMAGINATION 52.7% 4-1