TGENTRIES 12TH SAR JUNE 6 9.5F I1000000 1 CUN 1 3/16 MILES TURF THOROUGHBRED OPEN 4 YEAR OLDS AND UP GRADE 1 STAKE PURSE $1000000 (06:11) (9 )
Field — 9 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 DETERMINISTIC SPEED LEADER | 100.7 | 7-2 | 35d | 223233 | 7.3% |
| 2 | 3 MAKE ME KING | 100 | 8-1 | 35d | 3--133 | 21.6% |
| 3 | 7 RHETORICAL | 100 | 2-1 | 35d | 3-11-3 | 23.2% |
| 4 | 2 TEST SCORE | 99.3 | 12-1 | 35d | -2313- | 5.7% |
| 5 | 1 TIZ DASHING | 98.3 | 30-1 | 57d | 2-2322 | 1.8% |
| 6 | 4 INTEGRATION | 97.7 | 12-1 | 30d | 2-22-- | 0.1% |
| 7 | 8 ONE STRIPE | 94 | 6-1 | 57d | --1112 | 0.5% |
| 8 | 9 BATTLE OF NORMANDY | 93.7 | 20-1 | 35d | 111133 | 1.1% |
| 9 | 6 BRIGHT PICTURE | — First starter | 3-1 | 41d | 31-121 | 39.0% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 BRIGHT PICTURE | 55.10% | 64.97% | 3.25 | 1 | 9 | 119.7 | #9 ▲ | — | |
| 2 | 7 RHETORICAL | 51.45% | 70.96% | 2.90 | 1 | 9 | 118.1 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 3 MAKE ME KING | 36.84% | 47.23% | 4.43 | 1 | 9 | 112.9 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 5 DETERMINISTIC | 24.22% | 47.07% | 3.81 | 1 | 9 | 113.7 | #1 ▼ | — | |
| 5 | 2 TEST SCORE | 18.67% | 36.28% | 4.48 | 1 | 9 | 111.5 | #4 ≈ | ⚡ 570 | |
| 6 | 1 TIZ DASHING | 7.24% | 16.83% | 5.59 | 1 | 9 | 107.5 | #5 ≈ | ⚡ 175 | |
| 7 | 9 BATTLE OF NORMANDY | 3.98% | 8.92% | 6.64 | 1 | 9 | 103.8 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 105 | |
| 8 | 8 ONE STRIPE | 1.87% | 5.41% | 6.62 | 1 | 9 | 104.3 | #7 ≈ | — | |
| 9 | 4 INTEGRATION | 0.63% | 2.33% | 7.29 | 1 | 9 | 101.9 | #6 ▼ | ⚡ 12 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 MAKE ME KING | 8-1 | 11.1% | 36.84% | 47.23% | ✅ 1.94x | — | |
| 2 | 6 BRIGHT PICTURE | 3-1 | 25% | 55.10% | 64.97% | ✅ 1.56x | — | |
| 3 | 2 TEST SCORE LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 12-1 | 7.7% | 18.67% | 36.28% | 0.74x | ⚡ 570 | |
| 4 | 7 RHETORICAL | 2-1 | 33.3% | 51.45% | 70.96% | 0.69x | — | |
| 5 | 1 TIZ DASHING LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 7.24% | 16.83% | 0.54x | ⚡ 175 | |
| 6 | 5 DETERMINISTIC | 7-2 | 22.2% | 24.22% | 47.07% | 0.33x | — | |
| 7 | 9 BATTLE OF NORMANDY LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 3.98% | 8.92% | 0.22x | ⚡ 105 | |
| 8 | 8 ONE STRIPE | 6-1 | 14.3% | 1.87% | 5.41% | 0.03x | — | |
| 9 | 4 INTEGRATION LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 0.63% | 2.33% | 0.02x | ⚡ 12 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | DETERMINISTIC | 13.1% | 7.3% | -5.8% | |
| 3 | MAKE ME KING | 12.8% | 21.6% | +8.8% | |
| 2 | TEST SCORE | 12.2% | 5.7% | -6.5% | |
| 4 | INTEGRATION | 10.5% | 0.1% | -10.4% | |
| 8 | ONE STRIPE | 10.2% | 0.5% | -9.8% | |
| 1 | TIZ DASHING | 10.1% | 1.8% | -8.4% | |
| 6 | BRIGHT PICTURE | 9.7% | 39.0% | +29.3% | |
| 7 | RHETORICAL | 9.7% | 23.2% | +13.5% | |
| 9 | BATTLE OF NORMANDY | 8.4% | 1.1% | -7.3% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 6 BRIGHT PICTURE 39.0% 3-1
- 7 RHETORICAL 23.2% 2-1
- 3 MAKE ME KING 21.6% 8-1
- 6 BRIGHT PICTURE 55.1% 3-1
- 7 RHETORICAL 51.5% 2-1
- 3 MAKE ME KING 36.8% 8-1
- 7 RHETORICAL 71.0% 2-1
- 6 BRIGHT PICTURE 65.0% 3-1
- 3 MAKE ME KING 47.2% 8-1