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TAENTRIES 14TH SAR JUNE 6 8F P120000 0 BUN 1 MILE INNER TURF THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP ALLOWANCE PURSE $120000 (08:02) (16)

🏟 Saratoga 📅 2026-06-06 📏 1M Turf Alw 120000n1x 💰 $120,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 16 Runners

1
DOUBLE ACT
0.4%
RPR 85
Form 2---13
Off 50d
lbs 120
ML 15-1
J LEZCANO JOSE
T MOTT WILLIAM I
By INTO MISCHIEF Out of GOLDEN AWARD
🥇 0.4% 🥈 1.5% 🥉 3.9% Avg 9.3 ⚡ 43 longshot wins
2
NOBLE FACTOR
0.3%
RPR 86
Form 3----3-322
Off 34d
lbs 126
ML 20-1
J SAEZ LUIS
T BRION KERI
By THE FACTOR Out of PRINCESS TAYLOR
🥇 0.3% 🥈 0.8% 🥉 1.7% Avg 10.4 ⚡ 28 longshot wins
3
WINNEBAGO
0.4%
RPR 86
Form 3-3--122-
Off 49d
lbs 126
ML 10-1
J FRANCO MANUEL
T CLEMENT MIGUEL
By STARSPANGLEDBANNER Out of BITTER LAKE
🥇 0.4% 🥈 1.2% 🥉 2.7% Avg 10.1 ⚡ 36 longshot wins
4
FIRST CALL BOB
0.9%
RPR 84
Form -31
Off 42d
lbs 126
ML 12-1
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T BROWN CHAD C
By UNCLE MO Out of WALK CLOSE
🥇 0.9% 🥈 2.7% 🥉 6.8% Avg 8.1 ⚡ 89 longshot wins
5
FAVORABLE SCENARIO
0.0%
RPR 85
Form -3--3
Off 141d
lbs 126
ML 4-1
J PRAT FLAVIEN
T BROWN CHAD C
By GOOD MAGIC Out of LEMON GIN
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.1% 🥉 0.4% Avg 12.2
6
BLOWN COVER
8.0%
RPR 89
Form 11--13-1--
Off 28d
lbs 126
ML 15-1
J RODRIGUEZ JAMIE
T RODRIGUEZ RUDY R
By GUN RUNNER Out of SECRET NO MORE
🥇 8.0% 🥈 23.0% 🥉 40.6% Avg 4.5 ⚡ 798 longshot wins
7
TIZ TROUBLE
8.2%
RPR 85
Form -
Off 58d
lbs 120
ML 12-1
J ALVARADO JUNIOR
T LEWIS LISA L
By TIZ THE LAW Out of WARMHEARTED WINDY
🥇 8.2% 🥈 14.6% 🥉 19.8% Avg 9.5 ⚡ 824 longshot wins
8
ELNAJD
20.5%
RPR 90
Form 221
Off 48d
lbs 126
ML 5-1
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T COX BRAD H
By SPEIGHTSTOWN Out of FILFILA
🥇 20.5% 🥈 46.1% 🥉 64.6% Avg 3.2
9
GRIFFIN'S WHARF
0.3%
RPR 89
Form 2--1-12332
Off 48d
lbs 126
ML 12-1
J VELAZQUEZ J R
T MORLEY THOMAS
By CONSTITUTION Out of AUTONOMOUS
🥇 0.3% 🥈 1.0% 🥉 2.6% Avg 9.9 ⚡ 34 longshot wins
10
OUTRUNNER
4.4%
RPR 88
Form 311312
Off 196d
lbs 126
ML 5-1
J LOPEZ PASCACIO
T DUARTE JORGE JR
By AMERICAN PHAROAH Out of GALE FORCE
🥇 4.4% 🥈 14.7% 🥉 27.8% Avg 5.3
11
RAMBLIN' WRECK
1.1%
RPR 90
Form ----------
Off 28d
lbs 126
ML 12-1
J CARMOUCHE K
T GARGAN DANNY
By REDESDALE Out of DAKOTA KID
🥇 1.1% 🥈 3.4% 🥉 6.8% Avg 8.9 ⚡ 110 longshot wins
12
SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN
7.7%
RPR 91
Form 1311--21-3
Off 43d
lbs 126
ML 9-2
J SANTANA RICARDO JR
T DE PAZ HORACIO
By TWIRLING CANDY Out of COURT DRESS
🥇 7.7% 🥈 21.4% 🥉 37.1% Avg 4.8
13
FORTUNE SELLER
0.0%
RPR 85
Form 112122-1-3
Off 34d
lbs 126
ML 30-1
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T RICE KEVIN
By KITTEN'S JOY Out of VIOLINIST
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.1% 🥉 0.1% Avg 13.7 ⚡ 1 longshot wins
14
FORT NELSON
34.3%
RPR 91
Form 11132----1
Off 63d
lbs 126
ML 6-1
J CARMOUCHE K
T RICE LINDA
By BERNARDINI Out of SEVENTH STREET
🥇 34.3% 🥈 44.1% 🥉 50.2% Avg 5.7
15
PAGODE
13.4%
RPR 94
Form 2-3-2-1
Off 202d
lbs 126
ML 2-1
J RIDER TBA
T COX BRAD H
By CONSTITUTION Out of PRETTY GIRL
🥇 13.4% 🥈 25.5% 🥉 35.1% Avg 6.1
16
AMBITION
0.0%
RPR 86
Form -2----3---
Off 13d
lbs 126
ML 15-1
J GONZALEZ SILVESTRE
T KANTARMACI ILKAY
By STREET SENSE Out of INSPIRED
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.0% 🥉 0.1% Avg 14.2

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 15 PAGODE SPEED LEADER 94.3 2-1 202d -3-2-1 13.4%
2 12 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN 91.7 9-2 43d --21-3 7.7%
3 14 FORT NELSON 91.3 6-1 63d 2----1 34.3%
4 8 ELNAJD 90.7 5-1 48d 221 20.5%
5 11 RAMBLIN' WRECK 90.7 12-1 28d ------ 1.1%
6 6 BLOWN COVER 89.7 15-1 28d 13-1-- 8.0%
7 9 GRIFFIN'S WHARF 89.7 12-1 48d -12332 0.3%
8 10 OUTRUNNER 88.3 5-1 196d 311312 4.4%
9 3 WINNEBAGO 86.7 10-1 49d --122- 0.4%
10 2 NOBLE FACTOR 86.3 20-1 34d -3-322 0.3%
11 16 AMBITION 86.3 15-1 13d --3--- 0.0%
12 5 FAVORABLE SCENARIO 85.7 4-1 141d -3--3 0.0%
13 13 FORTUNE SELLER 85.3 30-1 34d 22-1-3 0.0%
14 1 DOUBLE ACT 85 15-1 50d 2---13 0.4%
15 7 TIZ TROUBLE 85 12-1 58d - 8.2%
16 4 FIRST CALL BOB 84.3 12-1 42d -31 0.9%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-07-21 21:06:33
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 14 FORT NELSON
34.33%
44.11% 50.19% 5.67 1 16 98.3 #3 ≈ —
2 8 ELNAJD
20.50%
46.06% 64.56% 3.17 1 13 100.4 #4 ≈ —
3 15 PAGODE
13.38%
25.49% 35.06% 6.06 1 16 94.2 #1 ≈ —
4 7 TIZ TROUBLE
8.24%
14.58% 19.84% 9.53 1 16 85.9 #15 ▲ ⚡ 824
5 6 BLOWN COVER
7.98%
22.98% 40.59% 4.46 1 15 96.8 #6 ≈ ⚡ 798
6 12 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN
7.69%
21.39% 37.05% 4.81 1 16 96.0 #2 ▼ —
7 10 OUTRUNNER
4.44%
14.66% 27.76% 5.33 1 16 94.7 #8 ≈ —
8 11 RAMBLIN' WRECK
1.10%
3.44% 6.75% 8.92 1 16 87.7 #5 ▼ ⚡ 110
9 4 FIRST CALL BOB
0.89%
2.68% 6.78% 8.10 1 16 89.3 #16 ▲ ⚡ 89
10 1 DOUBLE ACT
0.43%
1.47% 3.90% 9.35 1 16 86.9 #14 ▲ ⚡ 43
11 3 WINNEBAGO
0.36%
1.18% 2.71% 10.11 1 16 85.4 #9 ≈ ⚡ 36
12 9 GRIFFIN'S WHARF
0.34%
1.01% 2.56% 9.92 1 16 85.9 #7 ▼ ⚡ 34
13 2 NOBLE FACTOR
0.28%
0.75% 1.69% 10.42 1 16 84.7 #10 ▼ ⚡ 28
14 5 FAVORABLE SCENARIO
0.03%
0.14% 0.40% 12.25 1 16 81.1 #12 ≈ —
15 13 FORTUNE SELLER
0.01%
0.05% 0.09% 13.70 1 16 77.7 #13 ≈ ⚡ 1
16 16 AMBITION
0.00%
0.01% 0.07% 14.22 2 16 76.0 #11 ▼ —

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 14 FORT NELSON 6-1 14.3%
34.33%
44.11% 50.19% 🔥 2.40x —
2 6 BLOWN COVER LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 15-1 6.3%
7.98%
22.98% 40.59% 1.28x ⚡ 798
3 8 ELNAJD 5-1 16.7%
20.50%
46.06% 64.56% 1.23x —
4 7 TIZ TROUBLE LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
8.24%
14.58% 19.84% 1.07x ⚡ 824
5 12 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN 9-2 18.2%
7.69%
21.39% 37.05% 0.42x —
6 15 PAGODE 2-1 33.3%
13.38%
25.49% 35.06% 0.40x —
7 10 OUTRUNNER 5-1 16.7%
4.44%
14.66% 27.76% 0.27x —
8 11 RAMBLIN' WRECK LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
1.10%
3.44% 6.75% 0.14x ⚡ 110
9 4 FIRST CALL BOB LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
0.89%
2.68% 6.78% 0.12x ⚡ 89
10 1 DOUBLE ACT LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.43%
1.47% 3.90% 0.07x ⚡ 43
11 2 NOBLE FACTOR LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
0.28%
0.75% 1.69% 0.06x ⚡ 28
12 3 WINNEBAGO LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
0.36%
1.18% 2.71% 0.04x ⚡ 36
13 9 GRIFFIN'S WHARF LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
0.34%
1.01% 2.56% 0.04x ⚡ 34
14 5 FAVORABLE SCENARIO 4-1 20%
0.03%
0.14% 0.40% 0.00x —
15 13 FORTUNE SELLER LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.01%
0.05% 0.09% 0.00x ⚡ 1
16 16 AMBITION LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.00%
0.01% 0.07% 0.00x —

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 16 horses, ~6.3% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
11 RAMBLIN' WRECK 8.8% 1.1% -7.7%
6 BLOWN COVER 8.1% 8.0% -0.1%
14 FORT NELSON 7.8% 34.3% +26.5%
4 FIRST CALL BOB 7.3% 0.9% -6.4%
1 DOUBLE ACT 6.7% 0.4% -6.3%
7 TIZ TROUBLE 6.2% 8.2% +2.0%
16 AMBITION 6.2% 0.0% -6.2%
3 WINNEBAGO 6.1% 0.4% -5.7%
10 OUTRUNNER 6.0% 4.4% -1.6%
15 PAGODE 5.9% 13.4% +7.5%
2 NOBLE FACTOR 5.7% 0.3% -5.4%
8 ELNAJD 5.5% 20.5% +15.0%
12 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN 5.5% 7.7% +2.2%
5 FAVORABLE SCENARIO 5.1% 0.0% -5.1%
9 GRIFFIN'S WHARF 5.0% 0.3% -4.7%
13 FORTUNE SELLER 5.0% 0.0% -5.0%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 14 FORT NELSON 34.3% 6-1
  2. 8 ELNAJD 20.5% 5-1
  3. 15 PAGODE 13.4% 2-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 8 ELNAJD 46.1% 5-1
  2. 14 FORT NELSON 44.1% 6-1
  3. 15 PAGODE 25.5% 2-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 8 ELNAJD 64.6% 5-1
  2. 14 FORT NELSON 50.2% 6-1
  3. 6 BLOWN COVER 40.6% 15-1
📋 Exacta Box
14-8-15
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
14 FORT NELSON 8 ELNAJD 15 PAGODE
🎲 Trifecta
14-8-15
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
14 → 8-15-7
Key FORT NELSON to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
14-8-15-7
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
14/8 / 14/8 / 15/7/6 / 15/7/6
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 DOUBLE ACT
2 NOBLE FACTOR
3 WINNEBAGO
4 FIRST CALL BOB
5 FAVORABLE SCENARIO
6 BLOWN COVER
7 TIZ TROUBLE
8 ELNAJD
9 GRIFFIN'S WHARF
10 OUTRUNNER
11 RAMBLIN' WRECK
12 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN
13 FORTUNE SELLER
14 FORT NELSON
15 PAGODE
16 AMBITION