TCENTRIES 9TH TAM MAY 3 8F I25300 16000 0 BUM 1 MILE TURF THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP CLAIMING 16000-ALL PURSE $25300 (04:55) (9 )
Field — 9 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 MY BLESSING SPEED LEADER | 74.3 | 10-1 | 37d | -131-- | 21.2% |
| 2 | 4 HURRICANE SEASON | 71.3 | 6-1 | 7d | 3--1- | 43.4% |
| 3 | 8 MUCHO MACHO LADY | 71 | 30-1 | 14d | 1----3 | 13.3% |
| 4 | 5 FOREVER AGAIN | 69 | 9-5 | 7d | ---2-- | 6.3% |
| 5 | 6 COUNTRY ECONOMICS | 69 | 5-2 | 25d | ------ | 5.8% |
| 6 | 7 CATARINA | 67.7 | 12-1 | 190d | 33---- | 1.0% |
| 7 | 3 FAR ABOVE | 63.3 | 10-1 | 25d | 3-22-3 | 7.3% |
| 8 | 2 AVE FENIX | 62 | 30-1 | 9d | ---2-- | 0.4% |
| 9 | 9 SAHARA KARA | 60 | 6-1 | 14d | 1---1 | 1.4% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 HURRICANE SEASON | 53.45% | 60.30% | 3.61 | 1 | 9 | 70.5 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 1 MY BLESSING | 53.40% | 76.55% | 2.67 | 1 | 9 | 69.3 | #1 ≈ | ⚡ 424 | |
| 3 | 8 MUCHO MACHO LADY | 27.25% | 39.80% | 4.76 | 1 | 9 | 61.3 | #3 ≈ | ⚡ 265 | |
| 4 | 3 FAR ABOVE | 17.15% | 29.10% | 5.28 | 1 | 9 | 58.4 | #7 ▲ | ⚡ 146 | |
| 5 | 5 FOREVER AGAIN | 19.65% | 35.90% | 4.47 | 1 | 9 | 61.7 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 6 | 6 COUNTRY ECONOMICS | 15.45% | 26.20% | 5.62 | 1 | 9 | 57.0 | #5 ≈ | — | |
| 7 | 9 SAHARA KARA | 6.65% | 14.20% | 5.97 | 1 | 9 | 55.6 | #9 ≈ | — | |
| 8 | 7 CATARINA | 4.45% | 12.05% | 5.74 | 1 | 9 | 57.0 | #6 ≈ | ⚡ 19 | |
| 9 | 2 AVE FENIX | 2.55% | 5.90% | 6.89 | 1 | 9 | 51.8 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 8 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 MUCHO MACHO LADY LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 30-1 | 3.2% | 27.25% | 39.80% | 🔥 4.11x | ⚡ 265 | |
| 2 | 4 HURRICANE SEASON | 6-1 | 14.3% | 53.45% | 60.30% | 🔥 3.04x | — | |
| 3 | 1 MY BLESSING LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 53.40% | 76.55% | 🔥 2.33x | ⚡ 424 | |
| 4 | 3 FAR ABOVE LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 17.15% | 29.10% | 0.80x | ⚡ 146 | |
| 5 | 6 COUNTRY ECONOMICS | 5-2 | 28.6% | 15.45% | 26.20% | 0.20x | — | |
| 6 | 5 FOREVER AGAIN | 9-5 | 35.7% | 19.65% | 35.90% | 0.18x | — | |
| 7 | 7 CATARINA LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 4.45% | 12.05% | 0.12x | ⚡ 19 | |
| 8 | 2 AVE FENIX LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 2.55% | 5.90% | 0.12x | ⚡ 8 | |
| 9 | 9 SAHARA KARA | 6-1 | 14.3% | 6.65% | 14.20% | 0.10x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | MUCHO MACHO LADY | 14.0% | 13.3% | -0.8% | |
| 7 | CATARINA | 13.1% | 1.0% | -12.2% | |
| 3 | FAR ABOVE | 11.7% | 7.3% | -4.4% | |
| 2 | AVE FENIX | 11.6% | 0.4% | -11.2% | |
| 1 | MY BLESSING | 11.0% | 21.2% | +10.2% | |
| 6 | COUNTRY ECONOMICS | 10.7% | 5.8% | -4.9% | |
| 4 | HURRICANE SEASON | 10.2% | 43.4% | +33.2% | |
| 9 | SAHARA KARA | 8.5% | 1.4% | -7.1% | |
| 5 | FOREVER AGAIN | 8.1% | 6.3% | -1.8% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 4 HURRICANE SEASON 43.4% 6-1
- 1 MY BLESSING 21.2% 10-1
- 8 MUCHO MACHO LADY 13.3% 30-1
- 4 HURRICANE SEASON 53.5% 6-1
- 1 MY BLESSING 53.4% 10-1
- 8 MUCHO MACHO LADY 27.3% 30-1
- 1 MY BLESSING 76.6% 10-1
- 4 HURRICANE SEASON 60.3% 6-1
- 8 MUCHO MACHO LADY 39.8% 30-1
🏆 Actual Results
| # | Prog | Horse | Finish | Margin | Odds | Sim Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SAHARA KARA | — | — | Sim #7 (1.4% win) | |
| 2 | 5 | FOREVER AGAIN | — | — | Sim #5 (6.3% win) | |
| 3 | 4 | HURRICANE SEASON | — | — | Sim #1 (43.4% win) | |
| 4 | 8 | MUCHO MACHO LADY | — | — | Sim #3 (13.3% win) | |
| 5 | 6 | COUNTRY ECONOMICS | — | — | Sim #6 (5.8% win) | |
| 6 | 1 | MY BLESSING | — | — | Sim #2 (21.2% win) | |
| 7 | 7 | CATARINA | — | — | Sim #8 (1.0% win) | |
| 8 | 3 | FAR ABOVE | — | — | Sim #4 (7.3% win) | |
| 9 | 2 | AVE FENIX | — | — | Sim #9 (0.4% win) |
Official winner: SAHARA KARA